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Confidence: both sides have roles

With the cease-fire in its second month, Sri Lankans of all ethnic communities are hoping for a stabilisation of the situation which would enable the whole society to begin to look beyond war.

The Government has not only reciprocated the LTTE's cease-fire initiative, but also swiftly implemented a series of measures designed to relieve the pressures of war on the civilian population both North and South. These measures, some of them taken with certain implications for the State's military-strategic interests, demonstrate the Government's serious intentions about the peace process.

Such efforts build confidence, both nationally and internationally, in the Government's commitment to peace. It is such a process of initiatives by both sides in the conflict to build confidence that then leads towards a consolidation of the peace-making process. The onus is on both the Government as well as the LTTE to take such significant measures.

A failure by either side will diminish confidence in the process. At the same time, any activity that would tend to cast doubt in either side's commitment to peace-making would not help.

It is for this reason that the Government is anxious to sign a 'Memorandum of Understanding' with the LTTE that would formalise process of reciprocal confidence-building measures. This would also provide for a monitoring of the military status quo so that nothing would provoke uncertainties that could lead to tensions on the frontlines and possible cease-fire violations.

Already, there have been reports of seeming encroachments of Government-dominated zones by LTTE cadres. There was also the incident in which some Police officers accidentally strayed into an LTTE-held sector.

So far such incidents have been handled amicably by both sides. But uncertainties remain that can only be dispelled by the formalising of truce arrangements in a manner that would bring an equilibrium to the cease-fire.

Economics of rain

Colombo's citizens were breathing somewhat fresher, cleaner air last week after several showers of rain. It was the first rainfall in months, but given the weather experts' prognosis, it is not likely to sustained.

In short, the 'inter-monsoonal rains' seem to have failed again. These rains, usually brought by the 'convectional winds' that blow in the Indian Ocean, used to be part of the weather pattern of the island's "south-western quarter", as the Meteorological Department calls it.

Today, however, we no longer expect the weeks-long, thunderous, torrential, showers that characterise the South West Monsoon, to arrive on time every year. Rather, delays are the norm and failures, even, of the Monsoon are getting more and more frequent. And so too with the inter-monsoonal rains.

While the Met. experts remain guarded over the causes of climatic change, the environmentalists are less inhibited. For years they warned against it and now, they categorically blame the incessant de-forestation of the country and the un-regulated urbanisation as two major causes of the emasculation of the country's rainfall capacity.

As our de-forestation continues apace, as tree-less cities swallow up the wetlands and hillsides, as 'development' madly rushes on, our once-tropical homeland, with its dense flora and ubiquitous fauna, is heading towards the desertification that afflicts many parts of the continent across the Palk Straits.

While the most immediate repercussion may seem the lack of hydrel energy, the long term challenge is to reverse or revise our current model of 'development'. And we do not need to look elsewhere for ideas.

The cool waters of our vast ancient irrigation system holds out the same promise it did to our ancestors: a sustained prosperity comes only to those communities that include the ecology in their economy. One lesson that we must learn, and learn soon, is that just as much as the lack of rain is bad for the economy, the lack of ecology-oriented economics is bad for the rains.

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