|
|
 |
 |
| Sunday, 13 July 2003 |
 |
|
 |
Business |  |
| News Business Features Editorial
|
Role of applied statistician in sustainable development K.H.J. Wijayadasa, Advisor to the Prime Minister on Sustainable Development and Chairman of the Inter Ministerial Committee on Food Security addressed the Annual General Meeting of the Applied Statistics Association of Sri Lanka. Here are excerpts of his address. According to the World Development Report 2003, by 2050, the global population will soar to nine billion from today's six billion with 66 per cent of them living in cities. The demand for energy, water, housing and education will be enormous. In 50 years from now, the world's GDP will be US$ 140 trillion. The world cannot be sustained on current production and consumption patterns. The average income in the 20 richest countries is already 37 times that in the 20 poorest countries. A little over 25 per cent of the world's population live below the poverty line of less than one dollar a day. Of the 1.3 billion people living in fragile lands which cannot sustain them, 330 million (nearly one quarter) are in South Asia. Since the 1950s, nearly two million hectares of land worldwide representing 23 per cent of all croplands, pastures, forests and woodlands have been degraded. Tropical forests have been disappearing at the rate of five per cent per decade. Unless there is a significant reduction in poverty accompanied by a substantial lowering of environmental degradation, social unrest will heighten. This will result in the derailment of the sustainable development process. The World Commission on Environment and Development (Brundtland Commission), created in 1983 by the United Nations, defined sustainable development as "a process in which the exploitation of resources, the direction of investment, and the orientation of technological development and institutional change meet the needs of the present generation without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs". The concept of sustainable development encompasses economic, ecological and social parameters. The economic approach to sustainability is based on the concept of maximum flow of income that could be generated while maintaining the stock of assets or capital and at the same time contribute to economic growth. The ecological view of sustainable development focuses on the stability of biological and physical systems and their protection and management for posterity. The social concept is people oriented and seeks to maintain the stability of social and cultural systems leading to human capital formation. Sustainable Development is a wider concept than environmental protection. It is a fusion of ideas of the proponents of economic development and those of environmental protection. Sustainable development has three far-reaching priority goals - economic growth, human development and resource management. Unlike environmental protection and management, sustainable development requires an innovative approach where the root causes of environmental degradation such as poverty, population pressure, resource depletion, over-consumption and wasteful production are either eliminated or minimised and environmental considerations are fully integrated into the development process at all stages and levels. The Rio Declaration on Environment and Development has enunciated several guiding principles for environmentally sound and sustainable development of our planet. These principles include eradication of poverty, elimination of unsustainable patterns of production and consumption, promotion of appropriate demographic policies and the fostering of an open international economic system so that development today will not undermine the developmental and environmental needs of the present and future generations. To reach the goal of sustainability a four-pronged attack has to be launched on four fronts simultaneously: (a) Minimising environmental degradation and pollution; (b) Eliminating the root causes of environmental disintegration; (c) Integrating environmental considerations into the development process; and (d) Redirecting the economic development process to the path of environmentally sound and sustainable development. Sustainable development requires a major overhaul in the mindset, attitudes and behaviour of people. This is not a difficult proposition for Sri Lankans. The ecological and socio-cultural foundations of Sri Lankans are strong, deeply rooted and as old as human civilisation. Based on these values we have to evolve our own sustainable way of life, make the necessary adjustments and move forward. Environmental planning in sustainable development Environmental planning is the basic prerequisite for the success of the sustainable development process. It is defined as a planning process through which environmental considerations are incorporated into socio-economic development. It is only through this type of planning that comprehensive and complete integration of environmental considerations into the development process is achieved and thereby sustainable development is secured. Measures such as environmental institutions and legislation, education and training, public awareness and participation, and the application of environmental technologies are the other elements necessary to facilitate environmental planning and management. In the integration of environmental considerations into the development process, several planning methodologies, tools and techniques are employed.All environmental planning must be related to objectives that may be termed "environmental quality standards". These standards are minimum quality of life values acceptable for human well being. They would normally encompass standards pertaining to air, water, noise emissions etc. The history of environmental quality standards in industrialised countries has shown that they became progressively more stringent with increasing national affluence. Hence, what is appropriate for industrialised countries will rarely be transferable to developing countries. Setting appropriate environmental quality standards is very complex, requiring considerable expertise, and due to the lack of this expertise, many developing countries have attempted to solve the environmental standards problem by copying those of industrialised countries. The results have invariably been counter-productive, even to the point of discrediting the environmental agencies attempting to enforce them. Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) Just like economic analysis and engineering feasibility studies, EIA is a management tool for decision makers and planners who are called upon to make important decisions about major development projects. It is also a process through which environmental considerations are incorporated into project planning, construction and operation. It is a management tool for development projects, which consists of a sequence of actions for: (a) predicting the likely environmental impacts of projects, (b) finding ways to reduce unacceptable impacts and to modify projects so that they are environmentally compatible and (c) presenting these predictions and options to the decision makers. EIA covers a variety of environmental parameters in the prediction of environmental impacts and their socio-economic effects, and suggestions for mitigative measures. Therefore, it requires a large variety of environmental data and information, as well as skilled manpower to utilise EIA methodologies. EIA procedures, while essential in many cases, are often not based on an overall assessment of the total costs and benefits to society. This limitation depends largely upon the definition of the environment used to determine the scope of the EIA. In many cases, EIA procedures need to be supplemented with economic and social assessments. Although cost benefit analysis is not involved here, this technique provides a useful approach to incorporating economic and social values in the EIA process. The World Commission on Environment and Development has stated that "in all countries, rich or poor, economic development must take full account in its measurement of growth of the improvement or deterioration in the stock of natural resources". Changes in environmental quality and stocks of natural resources that occur as a result of economic and social development must be considered so that development decisions can satisfy the needs of both present and future generations. The question remains as to how this can be achieved. The objective of environmental accounting is to achieve this integration of environment and economics by presenting a clear picture of resource use and environmental quality that can be linked to national accounts. There are two principal elements of environmental accounting that need to be discussed. The first relates to the measurement of environmental quality and resource stocks. This is an essential intermediate step in the preparation of environmentally responsive national accounts. The depletion of natural resources, and therefore some measure of their sustainable use, can be assessed by comparing the available stocks at the start of an accounting period with the "net change" of stocks during this period. Net change can be calculated by finding the difference between additions to and deductions from the known reserves. The second element requires these physical accounts to be related to monetary aggregates of resources stock and flow. The idea is to incorporate these physical accounts into a national accounting system just like other elements such as productive capital, investment and consumption to: (a) promote a systematic evaluation of the effects of productive and consumptive activities of the natural capital: (b) make possible the periodic monitoring of the resource stocks and the incorporation of the estimated damage costs of "externalities" such as degradation and soil erosion into social accounting; (c) contribute to more intelligent policy making as well as more enlightened public and private management of resources, which is a core factor in achieving sustainable development. Environmental monitoring is a process for repeated observations and measurements of physical, chemical and/or biological parameters of single or plural elements of the environment at specific places and intervals with particular objectives. This needs to be supplemented with the monitoring of socio-economic parameters. It is necessary to have access to consistent and accurate environmental data and information before any sensible actions can be formulated for environmental management. The results of environmental monitoring are utilised, with other relevant data and information, for decision making at any point in time in environmental planning and management. After the implementation of environmental measures, a feedback from monitoring and evaluation helps in the future improvement of measures and efforts for environmental enhancement. The environmental database is a systematic information system, an aid to decision makers and planners in formulating and evaluating comprehensive and effective environmental policies. This system covers the natural as well as the man-made environment, including human activities, natural events and environmental impacts. The programme has been devoted to the development of a 'Framework for the Development of Environment Statistics and providing further methodological guidance for the establishment of environmental statistics at national level. The framework is used in particular to determine the scope and coverage of environmental statistics. Indictors can provide guidance for decision making in a variety of ways. They can translate physical and social science knowledge into manageable units of information that can facilitate the decision making process; help measure and calibrate progress towards sustainable development goals; provide an early warning, sounding the alarm in time to prevent economic, social and environmental damage and are important tools to communicate ideas, thoughts and values. Bhutan has developed a set of Quality of Happiness Indicators which are compiled by combing economic, social, spiritual and other quality of life data and statistics. No set of indicators whether they are economic, health, social, environmental, quality of life or sustainable development can be final and definitive, but must be developed and adjusted over time to fit country specific conditions, priorities and capabilities. The underlying theme of sustainable development is the integration of economic, social and environmental issues in decision and policy making at all levels. This integration implies the involvement of virtually all traditional sectors of economic and government activity, such as economic planning, agriculture, health, energy, water, natural resources, industry, education and other environment, and so forth, according to the principal ministries. The assumption of integration is reflected in the Indicators of Sustainable Development, which contain social, economic, environmental and institutional indicators, and should be taken up in mechanisms for institutional integration, such as national sustainable development councils, committees, and task forces as well as national strategies for sustainable development. This fundamental approach to sustainable development should be kept in mind in developing, testing and using indicators. Role of applied statistician in Sustainable Development Sustainable development is a complex, multi-disciplinary, multi-faceted and multi-sectoral process. Therefore, the Applied Statistician should have a good understanding of the concept, intricacies, inter-relationships and interdependencies of sustainable development. The policies and strategies, the management methodologies as well as the tools and techniques for environmental planning and management are still being developed. They have to be tried and tested before final adoption. The Applied Statistician has a major role to play in simplifying, rationalising and disseminating these planning and management tools and techniques. Even though the responsibility for monitoring the achievement of national goals and objectives, including data collection, compilation and analysis of information resides in a number of institutions, agencies and ministries; the onerous responsibility of putting all the pieces together and making a realistic and workable model rests with the Applied Statistician. |
|
News | Business | Features
| Editorial | Security Produced by Lake House |
