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| Sunday, 21 September 2003 |
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Features |  |
| News Business Features Editorial
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by AMRIT MUTTUKUMARU The Americans have clearly got themselves entangled into a web the implications of which will make Vietnam insignificant due to drastically changed circumstances connected with worsening worldwide injustice and inequity and more particularly the callous manner in which the U.S. led war against terror is being pursued. The U.S. already has in place in Iraq around 150,000 of its armed personnel while pumping Billion Dollars every week. In spite of this, there are increasing daily attacks on its personnel leading to deaths not to mention regular high profile acts of aggression leading to several hundreds killed, maimed and injured. All these attacks are apart from daily acts of sabotage aimed at economic and other sensitive targets which includes damage to oil pipe lines. Out of sheer desperation, the sole superpower has been forced to squirm its way back to the U.N. to seek multinational sharing of the Iraqi burden both in terms of troops and finance. The U.N. by at least tacitly allowing itself to be arrogantly sidetracked by the U.S. and by the virtual capitulation of the U.N. Secretary-General which is its symbol of authority, has greatly compromised its credibility. This also places limitations on the options available to any U.S. plans to extricate itself from the mire it has placed itself in. The Palestinian imbroglio which is the root cause for worldwide Muslim antagonism against the U.S. and its allies is bound to worsen with the recent reported high-handed Israeli cabinet decision to remove the Palestinian president Yasser Arafat. Almost the entire Middle East is in ferment primarily due to insensitive U.S. policies vis-a-vis Palestine, Afghanistan, Iraq and possibly in the near future, Iran. A prime motivator for all this would appear to be the securing of the rich oil resources in the region. War clouds also seem to be gathering in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Outside the region, other areas of strong anti-U.S. Muslim sentiments include Pakistan, Kashmir, southern Philippines, parts of Indonesia and Malaysia. The Bali, Riyadh and the recent Marriott Hotel bombings in Jakarta resulting in terrible carnage are a sharp reminder of this. Among the non-Muslim related flashpoints involving the U.S. is the North Korean nuclear stand off which has frightening implications. Thus, the world has become a very dangerous place for everyone particularly for the Americans and their mindless allies. This position will worsen unless the United States become more enlightened and humane in its dealings with the rest of the world. This does not appear to be happening going on the example of the failure this week of the WTO ministerial meeting in Cancun to address the concerns of the developing countries. Readers may well wonder as to what all this has got to do with our ethnic crisis and whether if at all, it will strengthen the LTTE? The writer will develop his arguments in the ensuing sections as to how this could strengthen the LTTE and simultaneously narrow the options available to the Sri Lankan state. These are issues that should be taken into consideration not only by policy makers engaged in the peace process but also by the different categories of spoilers. Of course, to those NGOs in the peace gravy train, it will present further opportunities for well funded largely meaningless consultative seminars and their usual outcome in terms of stereotyped reports and road maps interspersed with highly restrictive surveys and foreign jaunts! Spoilers Those opposed to a just negotiated resolution of the protracted and complex ethnic crisis fall under various shades of stridency. While the majority of them do so largely as a matter of political or other expediency laced with some misinformation, there are the minority well informed self-serving category who do so primarily for political or other expediency. Discerning readers will be quick to identify the more conspicuous elements in the latter category who if they have even an iota of self-respect should bury their heads in shame. It would appear that even some of those tasked with the responsibility of carrying forward the peace process may at least to some extent fall under the former category! Of course, the major political parties the UNP and SLFP whenever in opposition have strongly opposed each others peace initiatives. All these groups to varying degrees are either ignorant of or choose to ignore hard realities both at the ground and geo-political levels. These spoiler elements of different hues, seem to implicitly place faith on a military solution notwithstanding past disastrous consequences. A new reckoning in this scenario, is their confidence that the U.S. led war against terror will somehow bring about the direct military engagement of the U.S. on the side of the government which will result in the annihilation of the LTTE not dissimilar to that of the Taliban in Afghanistan and the Saddam regime in Iraq. In this, they are completely overlooking the reality where in both countries the writ of the U.S. led client administrations let alone in the rest of the country does not fully run even in their respective capitals of Kabul and Baghdad. Their confidence in a military solution is further buttressed in their belief also of Indias military engagement. It will be argued in the section on Geo-Politics that these assumptions under the circumstances are wishful thinking. Ground Realities What are the hard realities at the ground level? It is not sufficiently appreciated that the entire peace enterprise is primarily underpinned by the parity of military power and the spirit of partnership between the Government of Sri Lanka and the LTTE reinforced by the LTTE's actual control of vast territory in the north and east of the country. When the LTTE unilaterally initiated the ceasefire in December 2001, it was from a position of unprecedented military strength. They had humiliated the armed forces of a sovereign state by not only routing it in so-called impregnable fortifications such as Elephant Pass but more importantly had commandeered heavy and long range artillery and other potent armaments which have a significant military and political bearing. By these maneuvers they had also to a telling extent drained the south of its will to fight. The ceasefire was also initiated at a time when the country's finances were at a precarious position due to terrible mismanagement and corruption. It still continues to be under severe strain. A good portion of this damage to the country took place under the previous PA administration which is now so concerned about the sovereignty of the country! Any change in this fine balance would have repercussions on the peace process. The LTTE has astutely grasped the reality that due to factors such as the excessive internationalization of the peace process and the resultant safety net, this status quo has undergone a change in favour of the government. Manifestations of this include: exclusion from the Washington D.C. preparatory meeting for the major donor conference in Japan, the proposed ACSA agreement with the US giving its forces access to Sri Lankan ports/airports and connected facilities, the container surveillance agreement with the U.S., the visit of peace negotiator Moragoda to the Annapolis naval facility in Maryland, the gifting of a US naval vessel, the signing of the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement with the U.S., the proposed Free Trade Agreement with the U.S., the oil tank deal in Trincomalee together with the virtual gifting of the country's best gas stations to India, and the various military engagements with India for training, intelligence and most critically for the naval surveillance of the north-east seas. It should be appreciated that even the economic aspects ultimately also have a military bearing. Can the LTTE be faulted for seeking to redress all this through measures such as beefing up its own military capability and an appropriate interim administration under its leadership to deliver tangible peace dividends to the people in the conflict areas and thus also ensure the continued support of the people? In the vast territory in the north-east effectively under LTTE control, the LTTE has several quasi-state structures actually in operation notwithstanding imperfections. On the subject of imperfections, what example does the rest of the country in terms of its appalling governance extending even to the apex judiciary and with its rule of law in tatters give in this regard? In practical terms, what the LTTE is seeking is merely formal recognition for something it already has through the proposed interim administration. Such an administration which is even handed in its dealings should be welcomed as an acknowledgement of the unity of the Sri Lankan State and acceptance by the LTTE that this is but a precursor to a permanent negotiated settlement which must necessarily be based on democratic principles. This interim arrangement is merely a shifting of gears in the peace process to a higher level. Surely, isn't it unreasonable to oppose this? Geo-Political Realities As stated previously, spoiler elements of different hues, seem to implicitly place faith on a military solution notwithstanding past disastrous consequences. A new element in this equation, seems to be blind faith in the U.S. war against terror where it is facilely assumed by them that Uncle Sam will ultimately use its shock and awe strategy on the LTTE. In this assumption, firstly, they seem to have overlooked considerations such as the still largely unaddressed grievances and aspirations of the Tamils, the differences in the terrain and most critically the resilience of the LTTE. They also seem to have overlooked the disastrous consequences of this strategy in Iraq which in terms of loss of lives and galloping cost to the U.S. is proving to be unbearable. This is apart from its other negative fallout on U.S. interests in the region and worldwide which further stretches U.S. resources. This is why the U.S. in sheer desperation had to eat humble pie and go back to the U.N. which it peremptorily spurned. Another dimension of this thinking is a similar expectation from the Indians. In this, they are placing much faith in the pro-Hindu BJP Union government and Tamil Nadu chief minister Ms. Jayalalitha's apparent antagonism to the Tigers. They possibly are also emboldened by the recent visit to New Delhi of Israeli prime minister Aerial Sharon. To put it mildly, such thinking is completely out of alignment not only in regard to geo-political realities but also ground realities in the north-east. The Indians have first hand experience of this. Another aspect to this is that the Muslims in India and Sri Lanka not to mention the rest of the world will not be enamoured by India's growing links with Israel culminating in Aerial Sharon's visit. As will be clear from the opening paragraph of this article, the U.S. is extremely stretched throughout the world mainly due to its own misreading of the depth of the feelings and aspirations of the hundreds of millions of deprived people whose toes the U.S. is literally stamping on with impunity. Just as much as American public opinion got the U.S. out of Vietnam with the resultant largely insular stance of U.S policy for almost one and a half decades until the first gulf war, a similar situation albeit with some differences has begun to occur as the mounting casualties and expenses in Iraq and other theatres of conflict progressively become unbearable and come home to roost. It should also be recognised that the undue interest in the Middle East is due to its unique concentration of oil reserves which at least for the foreseeable future does not apply in the case of Sri Lanka. Apart from all this, the U.S which already has its hands full with different brands of Muslim terrorism from groups such as al Qaeda, the Taliban, Hamas, Jemmah Islamiyah and others are most unlikely to voluntarily open new fronts and thus confront groups fighting increasingly intolerable injustice be it economic, political or social. Not for a moment are we condoning any form of violence from any source, except to make the point that state terrorism in defence of injustice and inequity seems more reprehensible than other forms of the same malaise. This point appears to be conveniently overlooked in the discourse on terrorism. The expectation that India will intervene militarily on behalf of the government seems unrealistic for several reasons which includes, the humiliation suffered by the IPKF in its maiden intervention 16 years ago and the implications to India of the BJP administration virtually jettisoning its secular image in favour of Hindu nationalism. This has opened up completely new fronts internally and externally from enraged Muslims which will keep India busy for quite awhile! This is apart from the enduring Kashmir issue and cross-border incursions. Manifestations of this include last year's terrible violence in Gujarat, the attack on the parliamentary complex, the continuing Ayodhya controversy and the now regular carnage in the nation's commercial capital, Mumbai. Besides all this, at the appropriate time, the anti-LTTE stance of largely elitist Hindu society in Tamil Nadu will have to give way to the emotions of the Tamil masses in the state. Conclusion In the final analysis, the spoilers, peace makers and others should appreciate the simple truth that a durable solution of Sri Lanka's ethnic crisis which has already wrought much havoc on this country will only be possible through negotiations which honestly address the just grievances and aspirations of the Tamils. Under the circumstances, a military solution irrespective of the configuration of the participants will be impossible. This applies equally to all forms of injustice and inequity no matter where it takes place. This is the lesson the Americans do not seem to be learning in their dealings with the rest of the world. The Israeli-Palestinian imbroglio, Iraq and Afghanistan are stark examples of this. At this point, it is not out of place to mention that many of the policies of the largely U.S. influenced World Bank, IMF and WTO on the economic front have contributed to far more instability in the world than development. |
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