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| Sunday, 7 March 2004 |
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Editor, Sunday Observer. E-mail: [email protected] Snail mail : Sunday Observer, 35, D.R.Wijewardana Mawatha, Colombo, Sri Lanka. Telephone : 94 11 2429239 / 2331181 Fax : 94 11 2429230 Fissures in the North-East The drama unfolding in the Eastern Province inside the LTTE will have a bearing not only on the process of peace talks with the LTTE but also on many other aspects of Sri Lankan politics and society. Electoral rivals of the UNP may, for example, be hoping that the political confusion in the North-East could dilute the landslide sought by the LTTE-backed Tamil National Alliance thereby weakening the UNP's hopes for a parliamentary majority with TNA support in the April elections. Anti-LTTE Tamil groups may anticipate a spin-off from a reduced vote for the TNA. Those opposed to a peace deal with the LTTE may hope for an undermining of the LTTE's military strength and bargaining capacity. Eastern Tamil people who have been unhappy with a perceived domination of their affairs by the North will also be watching developments. Muslims in the East are tense about possible repercussions from communal forces that may be unleashed by a collapse of the LTTE rigid organisation there due to the infighting. The worries of the Eastern Muslims are valid given their experience in the past during the war as well as the more recent anti-Muslim violence by Tamil mobs in the period after the Cease-fire agreement of 2002. They will recall that the Eastern LTTE command failed not only to curb rioting Tamil mobs but also to rein in elements of their own fighting cadres who joined the attacks on Muslims. Tamil society as a whole will watch to see whether this internal crisis will be settled in ways that do not endanger the larger unity of the Tamil movement for self-determination. This is also of concern for those who want to see a smooth negotiating process with no confusion that could arise if the Tamil side is suddenly fragmented into two or more factions. The decision by Kilinochchi to summarily dismiss from office their Eastern commander, the rebellious Colonel Karuna, will be anxiously monitored for any possible confrontation that this may generate in the East between those who support the rebellious Eastern leadership and those remaining loyal to Kilinochchi's supremacy. The Government and the President have rightly affirmed their commitment to the Cease-fire agreement that already exists between Kilinochchi and Colombo, thereby negating any possibility of an Eastern LTTE faction making a separate approach for peace negotiations. But this may be a temporary respite. Any obduracy on the part of Kilinochchi in a future resumed talks process could compel Colombo to look for other factions that may be more amenable to compromise and whose intervention could influence Kilinochchi to seek a compromise as well. The hope is that this complication does not unravel the overall peace process. This can be ensured only by a posture on the side of Colombo that refrains from undermining the capacities of its partner in Kilinochchi. The current political rift between the LTTE high command and a regional command (the East) also reflects the traditional difference between the two major halves in the Tamil national community of the North-East: that is between the Northern Tamils and the Eastern or, culturally more accurately, between Jaffna and Batticaloa Tamils. At the same time, it also points to the obvious problems of internal decision-making and equity with the LTTE movement. While the Kilinochchi leadership may eventually resolve the crisis by dismissing Karuna and his associates this will not resolve the differences between the Northern and Eastern Tamil communities. It is possible that Kilinochchi, by ensuring the loyalty of the entirety of its armed force, does resolve the immediate crisis of an internal organisational rift. But the region's social differences are such that Karuna's initiative may become the early developments of a larger process of self-assertion by diverse social sectors in the North-East who are tired of imposed homogeneity and enforced consensus and, in this post-war period wish for greater plurality and sub-regional autonomy. In an era in which the country as a whole is moving towards greater autonomy and plurality all round, the developments in the East may add to this momentum in the long run. |
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