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| Sunday, 16 May 2004 |
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Indian elections: The poor strikes back The Indian elections are over. Confounding media commentators and exit poll experts, the Indian National Congress and its allies have won the election. Together with the Left and other democratic parties, the Congress is set to form a government with a clear majority in the Lok Sabha. According to the final figures for 539 out of 543 seats in the Lok Sabha, the Congress and its allies have won 217 seats. The Left, which has won considerable gains, is expected to support the formation of a Congress led secular government. The Communist Party of India (Marxist) has secured 43 seats and the Communist Party of India 10 seats. The Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party have secured 36 and 19 seats respectively. The BJP and its allies could only get 185 seats, which is slightly less than 35 percent of the total number of seats. Re-polling has been ordered in four seats. The President will appoint two more members. The BJP in its election campaign hoped to capitalise on three factors, which it considered to be to their advantage. They were Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee's popularity, ongoing process of making peace with Pakistan and the success of its economic reform, which produced a booming economy. It is clear that none of these factors have worked to its advantage. The economic reforms have hardly benefited the poor. In fact, the election result could be considered a strong rebuff given by the poor and the poorest of the poor to the BJP's "pro-rich" economic policies and its pro-West foreign policy. The strong position secured by the Indian Left also demonstrates the revulsion with which the working masses have viewed the economic policies of the BJP. The Indian election result also indicates a global trend where the poor are increasingly making their resentment to economic and fiscal policies dictated by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. With a Congress led government, strongly influenced by the Left, India is likely to follow a line in world fora more in conformity with that of radical states like Brazil and Venezuela. Another factor that seems to have affected the BJP is its virulent communalism. Its support of the Hindutva program, the ethno-religious fundamentalism of the RSS and the inability to contain communal violence in Gujarat and elsewhere has further alienated the masses from the BJP. The Indian election result shows a similarity with the result of the Sri Lankan elections but the verdict of the Indian voter seems to be more explicit. There is also a more pronounced anti-communalist, anti-fundamentalist character in the Indian verdict. In both cases, however, it is clearly a verdict of the poor. Parties opposed to the BJP are at present working on a Common Minimum Program for a secular coalition government at the centre. It is, however, not clear whether the Left will support the government from outside or whether it would join the government. Congress President Sonia Gandhi is most likely to be the Prime Minister, signifying a return of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty to the seat of power in the world's second populous country. - Jayatilleke de Silva |
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