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| Sunday, 8 August 2004 |
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US Election: War takes upper hand by P. Muthiah The stage is set for the US Presidential Election contest between Democrat John Kerry and the incumbent Republican President George W. Bush. The November 2 elections will decide which Yale-educated member, both from wealthy families, will govern the world super-power. Foreign policy Analysts are of the view that both candidates showed no wide differences in their foreign policy perspectives. Kerry calls himself a "War President" while Bush is already conducting a war on terrorism in Afghanistan and Iraq, where American lives are being lost to this day, even after limited powers were handed over to US henchmen. Analysts believe that the war on terrorism and Iraq would play an important role in this election. Washington's announcement that the United States, World Bank and other important institutions were under the threat of attack and intensified security measures confirmed that the war psychosis had intensified in the country. Democrat John Kerry accepting his nomination said he would wage war with the lessons he had learnt. In Iowa last week, Kerry promised to bring US troops home from Iraq "with honour", echoing Richard Nixon's 1968 "peace with honour" campaign pledge to end the Vietnam War, in which Kerry also served. In his nomination speech, Kerry also accused the Bush administration of not spending enough on internal security, and not forcefully pursuing war in Afghanistan and Iraq where the United States' losses are considerable. At the same time, President Bush, in his address to Joint Sessions of Congress and American People and the World announced in January this year: "From this day, any nation that continues to harbour or support terrorism would be regarded by the United States as a hostile regime." Kerry speaks of the United States alliance that he would rebuild to counter terrorism. On the Middle East, President Bush said: "There we will challenge the enemies of reform, confront the allies of terror and expect a higher standard from our friend." Naturally, in the dictionary of Bush "enemies of reform" is Yasar Arafat and the "friend" is Israel. Democrat Kerry sent his brother to Israel recently to convince the Jewish leadership of his support, as the Israeli lobby in the United States is more favourable to Republicans. The aim of his visit was to quell the opinion that a Democratic President would lean towards Palestinians. The Washington Post writes that there would be no fundamental change in foreign policy if Kerry wins the election. On the domestic front, both candidates are faced with minority votes. According to analysts, this year, a quarter of the voters would be non-white and as such, Kerry and Bush will target the minorities. South Carolina has about 50 per cent African-American votes while Missouri and Delaware have about 15 per cent. The percentage of Hispanic voters in Arizona is 25 and in New Mexico it is 42 per cent. Asian-Pacific Americans are an important source of votes in 15 of the 52 States. Nearly 10 per cent of the voters in California are Asian-Pacific Americans. California has the most, 54, electoral votes of any State. Loss of jobs Although the US economy has undergone a major change, it has resulted in the dislocation of jobs. Inequalities in income have grown considerably. Trade unions have become weaker because their membership has shrunk. Trade unionists are now divided between the Democrats and Republicans. The Republicans generally take conservative positions that are more responsive to the affluent and business sectors. Democrats want to support programs that would be beneficial to the less affluent. Kerry's comment on the present situation of the middle class in the US is as follows: "Wages are falling, healthcare costs are rising and our great middle class is shrinking. People are working weekends: they are working two jobs, three jobs and they are still not getting ahead." Unemployment in the industrial States of Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania is very high. During the last four years of the Bush administration, 50,000 manufacturing jobs were lost in these States. Kerry promises: "We value an America where the middle class is not being squeezed, but doing better. We will not raise taxes on the middle class. I will reduce the tax burden on small businesses. And I will roll back the tax cuts for the wealthiest individuals who earn 200,000 dollars a year, so we can invest in job creation, healthcare and education." This promise would naturally earn a positive response from the middle class. Repeat of 2000? Analysts say both candidates are neck to neck on the road to White House. The question posed now is whether the 2000 election will be repeated? Election 2000 was one of the most closely contested in American history. Democratic candidate Al Gore and Republican candidate George W. Bush both polled 48 per cent of the vote. But due to the complicated system, Gore won 21 states and Bush 30 states. Moreover, Gore won 266 electoral votes, while Bush got 271. During the election American democracy was challenged. The real decisive influence on the outcome of the presidential polls rested on Florida, where it was alleged that about 10,700 votes were never counted in Miami Dade County. However, through a Supreme Court decision, George Bush became President and Al Gore conceded defeat. The Judges of the US Supreme Court are appointed by the President for life and thus the nominations of judges are guided by political considerations. Analysts are of the view that a Republican President is more likely to appoint a conservative while a Democratic President may favour a liberal. This was well proved as the Court was divided 5-4, with the judges divided as Republicans and Democrats. However, 578 electors of the electoral college will decide the fate of Kerry and Bush, as one of them need to get 270 electoral votes. |
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