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Sunday, 9 January 2005    
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Forecasting on holiday

Light Refractions by Lucien Rajakarunanayake

There is much discussion today, learned, informed and otherwise as to whether the recent tsunami could have been forecast or some indication of it obtained in advance as to issue some form of early disaster warning. The apparent answer from available reports indicate that such a warning would not have been possible on the basis of the information that we may have obtained from foreign sources, particularly the seismic data observers at Hawaii.

But what shocks one are the excuses that trotted out for the inability of Hawaii to make contact with the seismic monitoring station at Pallakelle, on that tragic December 26. Whether we could have been warned of the disaster or not, one cannot dismiss the absence of personnel manning the station at the time, in the typical attitude of lotus eaters, by heaping most of the blame on it being a holiday.

The Head of the Geology Department at Peradeniya University is quoted as saying: "Moreover as it was a Sunday and a Poya day even if the equipment been working there would not have been anyone on duty to assess the danger." I'm sure he was not joking. The man was dead serious and possibly honest too.

In the country that has the most holidays in the world, this must not come as a surprise. In fact December 26, 2004 was not just one holiday but two holidays combined into one, a Poya Holiday and a Sunday.

How absurd can people be to expect any station in the country, which records occasional seismic disturbances or earthquakes, if its equipment is working, to have people manning such a place at any time on such a twin holiday, in the midst of the season of holiday and revelry, too? This is obviously far too much of a demand.

There can be nothing more sacred or important than a holiday. The personnel there are entitled to a long nap on the morning after a heavy Saturday night, instead of keeping watch for possible distant seismic disturbances.

Or else it is a much more sacred duty to go to church on a Sunday morning or observe "sil" on a full moon Poya day, than watch out for dangers to the country and the people. Each one for oneself and one's own pleasures or sacred rituals, but there are further aspects of what appears to be the evasion of responsibility.

The official of the Peradeniya Department's Geology Department who made a comment on this to the "Daily Mirror" says "It is wrong to suggest that we could have warned the people of this catastrophe. It is impossible for a man to stay on duty 24 hours a day, especially since the Government has stopped us recruiting any new staff." So the conjunction of holidays is not the only cause, there is also the Government's decision, (the previous government's I believe) to stop recruiting any new staff.

Would any of these officials who speak with such sangfroid at a time when the country has faced such a massive catastrophe, produce to the public any request made to the University Grants Commission and any other relevant ministry the need to have persons on 24-hour duty to man this station? Can they produce any correspondence from any panjandrum in the bureaucracy disallowing recruitment for such specialised duties?

The public should know the officials who made such an important request and those who turned it down. Or is it that they conveniently carried out the Government policy of non-recruitment of new staff, without bothering to bring to the notice of the relevant authorities the need for extra trained personnel for this work?

I must disagree with Dr. Ranjith Premalal De Silva, President Geo-informatics Society of Sri Lanka, who writing in "The Island" (Jan 6) made a long and clear case as to why were not in a position to give an early warning of the tsunami disaster, but says: "Our task today is not to find the individuals responsible for not monitoring the seismic signals associated with last week's catastrophic earthquake event. What we must endeavour is to find an answer to running the monitoring network efficiently in the future so as to benefit the country."

The second limb of his statement is unquestionably correct. But one cannot abandon the task of seeking out the individuals responsible for not monitoring the "seismic signals associated with last week's catastrophic earthquake event" as he explains the devastating tsunami. It seems a case of one academic safeguarding another or many others.

If we are to run the monitoring network efficiently in the future, it is necessary to weed out immediately those responsible for not monitoring last Sunday's disaster, only because it was a double holiday.

Weather and disaster forecasting and forewarning cannot be left at the mercy of holidays and myopic government policies. Those culpable must be exposed and brought to justice before a shattered public. There can be no room for them to hide in a maze of bureaucratic excuses.

The Pizza trail

The Italian government has delivered relief assistance direct to the LTTE ignoring the Government of Sri Lanka. The country is no doubt grateful for all the assistance that Italy has officially given to help overcome the tsunami tragedy. Yet, one cannot remain silent at such an obvious affront to the country's sovereignty.

The Italian Government and its embassy here cannot be unaware of the extraordinary steps that Sri Lanka has been taking to stem illegal emigration to Italy from Sri Lanka, by our own nationals and others too.

Similarly, it cannot be ignorant of the nature of the organisation it has given the aid to. It is an organisation that has no regard for Human Rights; one that has refused all efforts by the Government to send assistance to LTTE held areas in a verifiable manner.

It has kept a Russian medical team kicking its heels preventing them from entering the region to give much needed medical assistance. It is also the organisation that continues to abduct Tamil children, even after the ravages of the tsunami.

Is it for fear of letting the world know of its incapability to protect its own people and provide the necessary immediate relief to them that it is refusing any government or foreign teams to visit that devastated area? Is it not making capital of its own refusal of government directed aid, to tell the world the big lie that the Government is not giving sufficient aid to the entire North.

Whether fooled by this propaganda or not, before the next load of pizza or lasagna is sent to Kilinochchi direct by Italy, the Italian Embassy here should ponder over the consequences of such an act. It can pose a major threat to the Catholics of this country, and also to those in that area North of Negombo stretching almost up to Puttalam that is now known as "Little Italy". Rome may unknowingly help reopen differences that we hoped the tsunami had submerged for all time.

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