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| Sunday, 7 August 2005 |
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Junior Observer |  |
| News Business Features Editorial
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Emerging superpowers Continued from last week. We explained about superpowers of the world in last week's article. As you are now aware, the term is used to describe the most powerful countries in the world. The countries which hold superpower status keep changing over the years. At one time, that is more than a century ago, the most powerful nations were European countries, particularly Britain, France and Germany. But with the Second World War in 1945, the power shifted to the USA and USSR. Now again, with the breakup of one of the post war superpowers, namely USSR, there are many nations that are becoming potential superpowers of the world. The United States of America still maintains this status with nations such as China, India and Japan, emerging into the forefront to take up this status. Let's look at what these countries have, to emerge as superpowers of the world in the future... Post war and current superpowers United States The United States headed NATO, commonly known as the Western Bloc or the First World during the Cold War. From the post-Cold War era, the United States is the world's sole remaining superpower, with the world's largest economy, and spending more on the military than the next twelve countries combined. However, due to the size of its economy, the United States actually spends a far smaller percentage of its Gross National Product on its military than many countries. Soviet Union The Soviet Union was the United States' superpower rival during the Cold War. The Soviet Union was not just a superpower rival, but also an ideological rival, representing the ideology of Communism in opposition to the Capitalism of the west. The Soviet Union headed the Warsaw Pact and was commonly known as the Eastern Bloc or the Second World. The Soviet Union was a military and political superpower, economically it rated as a major power with emerging power similarities. These are countries that might end up having superpower status in the next decades or so. China China is normally considered to be the most likely candidate thanks to the world's largest population and one of the fastest growing economies in the world. China has grown around 9 per cent a year for more than 25 years(although recently the government has sought to slow this growth to prevent a crash), the fastest growth rate for a major economy in recorded history. In that same period, it has moved 300 million people out of poverty and quadrupled the average Chinese person's income. China has also a potent nuclear arsenal and the biggest army of a single state worldwide.China is the third country (after Russia and the USA) to send humans into space. However, many people think the authoritarian political structure of China could bring instability in the future. The Chinese economy is relatively fragile as any sudden downturn could also usher in economic and political instability. India Similar to China, India has a population of over a billion, nuclear weapons, the world's third largest military and fourth largest airforce, as well as a thriving economy (4th largest in PPP). India also enjoys the advantage of a big and well-educated English-speaking workforce. The biggest obstacle: India is still a "developing" country in many respects with poor infrastructure, a huge poor and under-educated lower class that has a tremendous gap with the middle and upper classes; widespread corruption, inefficiency, brain-drain, social and ethnic tensions as well as potential conflict with its neighbour and rival, Pakistan. Despite India's widespread poverty, the Indian middle class consists of approximately 500 million people and poverty levels have been falling consistently since the '90s. Today, approximately 20 per cent of India's population lives in poverty. India's democratic foundations also ensure government stability. European Union The European Union, if counted as a single unit, would have the second largest economy and military in the world. Thanks to its highly developed economies, Europe is a leading place for investment, science, and technology. The EU already has a tremendous cultural, political and economical attraction for surrounding states. It seems likely that other important states like Turkey and Ukraine will join the EU before 2025. The biggest obstacle: the EU at the moment is still too politically and militarily fragmented to be considered as a single power. Brazil Brazil has a large population and the potential to form the core of a united South America. It is presently campaigning for a permanent seat in the UN Security Council. However, Brazil suffers from many problems typical of so-called "developing countries", such as poor infrastructure, poverty, a massive rich-poor gap, unstable economy, and widespread corruption and inefficiency. Japan Japan is one of the most developed nations on Earth and currently the second biggest economy (at market exchange rates, not counting the EU). However Japan does not control access to its most important raw materials, currently possesses insufficient military defensive capacities and has no nuclear deterrent ability. Japan also has a relatively small population, which is expected to decrease further over the next few years. Russia Russia still possesses some attributes of a world power, especially the largest arsenal of strategic nuclear weapons. It also has the ability for manned space travel. Perhaps most important of all is that it is the largest country of the world and is in control of over strategic raw materials. Russia definitely still has a powerful capacity for destructive force, which in light of the current delicate political situation is not calculable beyond the medium-term. However, Russia lacks the economic power that a superpower needs. |
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