Online edition of Sunday Observer

The Presidential election and its related issues have captured the general attention of people, politicians and others in the country while certain media are giving bold headlines on front pages and diabolical arguments running through pages to convince people of an imminent war.

The SLMM is taking every possible step to back the LTTE and it is alleged that they went to the extent of meeting Karuna group to discuss this matter in order to reduce their threat against Vanni cadres.

After the JVP and the JHU agreed conditional support to SLFP candidate Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse, this bias media backed by opposition groups is now working sleepless nights to label Rajapakse as a war monger.

Such allegations could be intended to make unfounded fears in the minds of voters in the North East as well as in other parts of the country. This opposition election tactic seems to be co-founded with the LTTE when the current development in the North and East is taken into consideration.

It is obvious that neither the Government nor the LTTE would plunge into another war at this juncture as the Government is humbly committed to peace and as the LTTE is facing severe problems within the organisation.

Although the LTTE leaders in Vanni continue their typical boasting of military power and readiness to any situation just to keep up with their morale. They too are fed up with war which they could not win for over the last two decades and now changed their strategy to reach the goal through optional means such as secret war against the enemy.

The heaviest blow on the LTTE was to change the stance was the split of its Eastern Leader Karuna in 2004. Vanni conspiracy prevented several other area leaders who tried to follow suit and among them Trincomalee leader Paduman who disappeared after he was summoned by Pirabaharan to Vanni.

Loosing cadres in the war and in infighting between renegade group, shrinking of international funds and international pressure on terrorism are other factors for the LTTE to think twice before they go for war and under these circumstances, talking about going to war proves just an election gimmick by opponents.

However, the LTTE would not waste time during this 'slack period' - elections - in other parts of the country.

As a professional guerrilla group, they have changed strategies and introduced new ones intelligently according to the situation to get more advantages from whatever the situation that is coming in.

Escalating violence in the North and East by the LTTE is one among them and the gunning down of Hindu Priest Rev.Sabhananda Sharma on Wednesday is good evidence to prove the LTTE's continuous secret war to physically eliminate their opponents and mentally destroy the morale of ordinary people especially in an election time to get a type of President elected with whom they could easily bargain. escalating

Blaming the Para-militaries for such escalating violence in the North and East is another strategy that the LTTE is using. During the first 14 days starting from September 1, there were 33 persons killed and 68 persons injured in 126 attacks in these areas. Among them were 13 security forces personnel, 24 civilians and seven policemen.

How could one blame Para-militaries for such incidents when all Para-militaries were disarmed by the Government forces soon after the CFA was signed between the Government and the LTTE in 2002.

Since then, there was no report recorded of any activity by any Para-militaries in the North and East until Eastern Leader Karuna split away from the Vanni group and started clashes between the two factions.

On the other hand, if there was any such single group activated after the CFA, why didn't the LTTE complain about it to the SLMM during the two year period from 2002 to 2004?

And why did the SLMM wait so long to take action against para-military groups if there was any and why has the SLMM come forward in a sudden burst to discuss about Para-militaries?

This is evidence of the SLMM's biasness towards the LTTE and now they have been compelled to negotiate with renegade groups in order to clear the way for the LTTE to get hold in the East to reach their much awaited goal, a Unilateral Declaration of Independence (UDI) in the North and East.

Whichever the renegade group, whether it is Karuna or any other group, they are operating from the LTTE controlled areas. After all, they are still LTTE men.

As Vanni has lost control over the Eastern Province with the split of Karuna, the Vanni cadres launched many onslaughts on Karuna cadres but failed to crush them.

During the group clashes, Karuna group killed over 160 Pirabaharan cadres while Pirabaharan cadres were able to kill about 65 Karuna cadres in this period and this proved the LTTE's failure to control Karuna cadres in the East.

Therefore, they changed their strategy of eliminating Karuna group by themselves but sought SLMM intervention on the one hand and blaming the government forces alleging that they are backing Karuna on the other hand.

The crest fallen Vanni leadership has been fast losing the authority in the East consequently.

However, both cadres find Government control areas as apt grounds to commit these crimes where the LTTE get advantages over the killings to blame the Government for not providing sufficient protection for their cadres to engage in political activities on the one hand and on the other hand, they try to force the Government through the SLMM to get Karuna groups neutralised in the East as they want to regain the lost authority in the province.

Blaming Para militaries and trying to show that Government forces are backing such Para militaries is another LTTE strategy to use the Government forces as cat's paw to eliminate Karuna cadres from the East. The SLMM is also taking every possible step to back the LTTE in this regard and it is alleged that they went to the extent of meeting Karuna group to discuss this matter in order to reduce their threat against Vanni cadres.

The SLMM has allegedly offered eight area leaders of Karuna group with five million rupees each to stop their attacks on Vanni cadres and asked them to leave the area. If other area leaders such as Swarnam in Trincomalee and Sea Tiger Susai would split, the situation for the LTTE would be serious in maintaining its balance of authority. So these leaders might have known that what had been the destiny of former Trincomalee leader Paduman who was summoned to Vanni and did not return up-to-date.

There would be more such incidents but what could the Government do for such internal splits. However, the SLMM would have to look into such incidents and clashes within the group without favouring one group if they really want the LTTE to take to negotiations.

The loss of control in the East has caused a major set back for the Vanni leadership for its journey towards the UDI, and the SLMM's sudden wake up from the long slumber to attend to Para-military activities in the East is clear indication that they have undertaken the LTTE's job of clearing the way to get hold of the lost power in the East.

Meanwhile, the UDI is another dream for the Vanni residents which are similar to their separate state or Tamileelam. People are fed up with the war on one side and on other side the pressure they get from the LTTE for long years. 'What have we benefited or what are our offspring going to get under this dictatorship' is the question of many residents living under harsh conditions in the LTTE stronghold of Vanni.

They have failed to bring anything rather than anguish, destruction and poverty. Their promised land of Eelam has become a farce and people have no confidence or sympathy towards the LTTE. This proves many renegade groups activating among the Vanni residents.

Parents who sacrificed thousands of sons and daughters to the LTTE's cause would take Pirabaharan to task as he failed to achieve the goal even within 23 years. This is why the LTTE has got a cover-up of peace talks, UDI and blames the Government as he fails to answer the people.

And there is no authority responsible to anybody in the LTTE stronghold and the LTTE is the sole authority for taking any decision whether it is justifiable or not.

Ordinary people find it difficult to obtain justice for various grievances as the LTTE cannot provide any redress to them as an elected Government could do. Even the tsunami relief and rehabilitation would have more efficiently and rapidly reached the area if the LTTE allowed the Government and other institutions to come into their areas, Vanni residents complained.

Instead, the LTTE tried to use natural disaster in their favour and got the relief and other funds to their hand in the name of the victims. To whom are they responsible, and who is going to monitor their activities. Even Norwegian monitors are denied access to some of their areas, who can trust the LTTE would distribute the relief to the needy?

As for the election though it is crucial, the LTTE has implemented its own plan already. They would not bother much about who would come to power, but they are preparing the ground to convince the next President whether he be Mahinda Rajapakse or Ranil Wickremesinghe that the LTTE has maintained its strength, military, political or otherwise to bargain with.

It means that whoever comes to power should listen to them. Therefore, the country could expect more violence by the LTTE, they might attack strategically important military points such as Thanakkilappu, Jaffna town, Nagarkovil, Point Pedro and Vadamarachchi intending to get hold of more Government controlled ground areas, assassination of political leaders, strengthening their bases, child recruitment, procurement of weapons etc. while the attention of all are focused on the Presidential election.

The Kadirgamar killing was the beginning and one cannot but expect more such incidents by a guerilla group.