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| Sunday, 18 September 2005 |
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Intense
horse trading though nominations unannounced
by Ranga Jayasuriya
Nominations are yet to be called-the Elections Commissioner says his hands are tied. He is referring to one particular clause in the landmark August 12 Supreme Court judgement which he says has "constrained" him carrying out duties in terms of the constitution. But, we are already feeling the heat of the election. Last week, the SLFP and the UNP had what some-one described as tit-for-tat party conventions. And talks are making rounds about impending cross- overs. All that is expected. We have history repeating in the wake of every election. Someone recently predicted that the peace process was going to dominate the election campaign. Of course it is. We have already seen it making rounds on the election platform. But a recent survey by a research agency suggested otherwise, identifying the soaring cost of living as the prime concern of the people in the South. That is, however, different from the Northern opinion in which a solution to the ethnic question ranks top. But, whether you like it or not, the peace process is heading to dominate the election campaign, because the fifth Executive President of Sri Lanka would have to solicit minority votes harder than any of his predecessors. After years of solitude, Northern and Eastern Tamils are experimenting with their universal franchise. When they voted en masse in the previous Parliamentary Election, they sent 22 MPs to parliament. There is intense horse trading going on by the minority parties. In the backdrop of the majority Sinhala electorate being split between the UNP and the SLFP, anyone of the two main candidates, who gets hold of a reasonable portion of minority votes, will have a clear edge. The Prime Minister is doing his best to secure the largest possible support in the South. He has got an electoral deal sealed with the JVP and last week he signed another pact with the Jathika Hela Urumaya. Rajapakse's strategy seems to be to get hold of the maximum support in the South and thereby present himself as the only candidate who could unify the majority Sinhala electorate. Needless to say if he has a clear edge in the South, that would mitigate the losses in the North-East. Wickremesinghe has got a different game plan. He is yet to announce any electoral pacts, but surely he will. The peace process will be his trump card, indeed, the President herself paying a tribute to the former Prime Minister for signing the Ceasefire Agreement, when, she said despite all its setbacks, it had heralded economic growth. Wickremesinghe is lobbying the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress and the Ceylon Workers' Congress. Not to mention TNA, his most likely saviours even though they are yet to announce their support. Indeed, Rauff Hakeem is now a host of frequent visitors. Two weeks back, We heard that the Prime Minister himself visited Hakeem at his residence one Friday night. And there is Arumugam Thondaman, with his half a million vote bank from the misty central hills. This week, he had the honour of being in the Sri Lankan delegation to the UN General Assembly. He, like Hakeem is non-committal on the support of his party. But he is now in New York with President Kumaratunga, who one newspaper hinted would try to work out electoral deal between Rajapakse and Thondaman's Ceylon Workers Congress. Mr Rajapakse knows that his stand on the ethnic question and his electoral alliance with the JVP and JHU are a cause for concern in some quarters. So, after signing the pact with the JHU, he made it clear that he would pursue a negotiated settlement. He had to stress, that he was not "preparing for war," perhaps because his opponents are trying to create a fear psychosis in the South. |
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