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by Ranga Jayasuriya

One myth in journalism is about objective reporting. No reporting could be objective, as we know it is often subjected to a number of factors, some of which are linked to reporter and in the Sri Lankan context, most notably, to the political affiliations of the media institution.

This situation is understandable given the nature of media ownership in this country, but news manipulation is so deep rooted that one could see Jayantha Chandrasiri's cinematic creation "Guerilla Marketing" in real life.

President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga may have certain differences with her Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse over his election manifesto, in which the latter has pledged to continue the unitary state in contradiction to President's campaign for Federalism.

President supports PM

She did not speak in public about her differences, but we could read all sorts of stories about a possible rift between the President and the Prime Minister in some newspapers, carried with the "exclusive" banner.

We are also privileged to see some selective TV slots where Rajapakse's shadow Prime Minister Anura Bandaranaike was criticising Rajapakse's policies.

TV stations never carried a full length speech of Anura Bandaranaike, but were selective, mutilating and carrying only a selective part of his speech, which perhaps could give a meaning totally different from what Anura Bandaranaike intended.

When a SLFP delegation raised the issue with the Elections Commissioner, the latter could only tell them as far as the private media is concerned, he could only give guidelines.

If they continue to violate such guidelines, the Elections Commissioner said, he was powerless to act. The aggrieved party could only seek legal redress. The Elections Commissioner could appoint a Competent Authority for the State media, he said. But in his own words, such a measure is unfair and one sided.

And, last week, the President made her presence at Rajapakse's election platform, brushing aside speculations of a rift with the Prime Minister.

The President, putting her weight behind the SLFP Presidential hopeful in a rally at Wariyapola called on the public to support Rajapakse's presidential bid.The President stressed that the SLFP policies should continue, referring to a negotiated settlement to the ethnic conflict.

"Some may protest, but the SLFP is committed to devolution which is accepted by 75 per cent of people," she told a mostly SLFP crowd.

In reference to an earlier statement by the Prime Minister, she said: " The Prime Minister spoke the truth. Our party is not the property of any family, neither Bandaranaikes nor anyone elses".

The Prime Minister on his part promised to take forward SLFP policies.

Moving from Wariyapola to Mahiyanganaya, Rajapakse addressing his first major rally in the Uva Province, pledged to strengthen the welfare state, upgrade and expand education, health and other social infrastructure, the cornerstone of a welfare state.

Rajapakse's election manifesto will be released today (16).

The Opposition Leader, Ranil Wickremesinghe last week kicked off his election campaign from Kandy.

He met religious leaders before he addressed the mammoth rally there.

"Even though my ancestors were in Western, Southern and Sathkorale I don't ask your support on that basis," Wickremesinghe told the crowd.

He charged Rajapakse, JVP and JHU of having formed a front with the sole intention of defeating him.

"I don't have any front. My only front is against poverty and unemployment," said Wickremesinghe.

Earlier, Wickremesinghe pledged to build the world's largest stupa in Sri Lanka. The promise is, obviously, to revive the UNP's Buddhist roots and to win back voters who went to the Jathika Hela Urumaya.

JHU MP Ven. Omalpe Sobitha Thera had a response for Wickremesinghe. Ven Thera said the world's three largest stupas, namely Abhayagiriya, Jethawanaya and Ruwanveliya are already in Sri Lanka.

Ven. Thera asked Wickremesinghe not to exploit Buddhist heritage for political interests - perhaps, in the coming days, the UNP would ask the same from the JHU, a party which is campaigning on a Buddhist platform.

Ranil Wickremesinghe has pledged a new welfare program, "Siya Saviya", in which beneficiaries would receive financial assistance ranging from Rs 1,000 to 4,000 per month. He has also promised the continuance of Samurdhi program for those who don't want to move to "Siya Saviya".

He has also told that he would modernise six regiments of the Sri Lanka Army which, at present, has 34 regiments.

There were fears that he was planning to reduce the Army of man power. But, Wickremesinghe told a press conference that the other regiments would continue to function.

Wickremesinghe has hinted that he would form a National Government, but at the press conference last week, he evaded the question whether he would dissolve Parliament if the Prime Minister rejects his invitation for a National Government.

Touring islandwide, Prime Minister Rajapakse, last week, promised to bring the fruits of development to the country's rural hinterland.

Echoing sentiments of rural youth that development process is Colombo centred, he promised to bring information technology to the village under his "Nena Saviya" program.

More about information technology; Wickremesinghe is locked in a controversial deal to purchase computers. Rajapakse's campaign Manager Mangala Samaraweera and Sripathy Sooriyarachchi last week lodged a complaint at the Bribery Commission demanding an investigation into the purchase of 35 computers and software at a cost of 175 million rupees.

Wickremesinghe addressing the media briefing pledged to cooperate with the investigation and said he would not go to court to stop investigations - an allusion to Rajapakse who earlier won a court injunction over CID investigations into the Helping Hambantota Fund.

Small parties in fold

Both main candidates have won small parties into their fold. Rajapakse has the support of Vasudeva Nanayakkara, an ardent advocate of minority's right to self determination.

Interestingly, the Liberal Party - whose Council for Liberal Democracy is the first think tank to advocate privatisation to the loss making public ventures as early as late 1980s - has put its weight behind Rajapakse. Liberal Party President Prof. Rajiv Wijesinghe says even liberals permit certain government restrictions on economic activities.

The importance of the support of parties like the Liberal Party, which is more a think tank than a political party, is that though it could not muster grass roots support, still it could provide ideological and theoretical insights to Rajapakse, if he is elected.

Winning the Presidential race is, indeed, a process more complex than doing simple arithmetic though supporters of both sides are obsessed with statistics.

In a context where both parties possess core vote banks of equal size, each estimated to be 3 million, what would matter most in the outcome of election is a whole set variables, each interlinked with the other and reacting to the developments on the other.

One deciding factor would be the ability of the UPFA, mainly the SLFP and its junior partner JVP, to retain floating votes, which brought it to power last time. The UPFA with its new found spirit was the destination of most floating votes in the 2004 April Second Parliamentary polls.

Equally decisive is the ability of Ranil Wickremesinghe to attract voters the UNP lost in the previous Parliamentary Polls.

Another factor is as to whether the Ceylon Workers Congress and the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress would be able to unite minority communities to a common cause, which both parties have so far failed.

The behaviour of the North-Eastern voter, especially the Tamil voters would also be crucial.

What impact would the Karuna faction in the East have on Eastern Tamil voters?

At last, the Fifth Executive President would be the one who has a greater number of variables turned into his favour.

Voter turnout is also variable, especially in the North-East.

In the Parliamentary Elections 2004, the LTTE proxy Tamil National Alliance contesting under Illankai Tamil Arasu Kachchi polled 633,654 votes in the North-East, which was 6.84 per cent of the popular votes.

Eelam People's Democratic Party (EPDP) and TULF President V. Anandasangaree also polled in reasonable numbers even though the later could not make it to Parliament.

The election process in the North-East in the April second Parliamentary polls was heavily manipulated in favour of the TNA, but albeit its negative impact, it also ensured a heavy voter turnout. The LTTE arranged transport for voters and people thronged the cluster polling stations in thousands. Last time, the LTTE had implicitly announced its support to the TNA because the TNA was championing the LTTE cause. There were a number of LTTE activists in the TNA list, some of whom later made it to Parliament.

One would expect that Ranil Wickremesinghe would win votes which went to the TNA in the General Election. That means the UNP Presidential hopeful dreams of having a landslide in the North-East, especially in the North, including LTTE held Vanni. But the LTTE has so far not announced its position on the Presidential Elections. Indeed, LTTE Political Wing leader S. P. Thamilselvan and TNA parliamentarians have told the press that they were not interested in the Presidential election. But, at the same time the Tigers have sent contradictory signals on their stance.

LTTE Political Commissar has said that the LTTE would discuss with the TNA their stance in the Presidential elections. At the same time, there are statements by the LTTE carried in the pro-LTTE websites that the Tamil people need no guidance in deciding their choice in the Presidential election.

The LTTE has shown a marked reluctance to accept the sovereignty of the Sri Lankan State or anything to do with the Government of Sri Lanka. In this context, it is hard to expect that the Tigers would put their weight behind one candidate to the Presidency as that would amount to accepting the sovereignty of the state, against which they fought - or are fighting still.

TNA support

Perhaps, the TNA would make an announcement on its support with the tacit approval of the LTTE.

The question, however is as to whether the people would be mobilised to vote in an equal energy in the absence of a sophisticated manipulation by the LTTE.

If the North-East voters keep away from the election, that would be at Wickremesinghe's loss.

Both Wickremesinghe and Rajapakse have got their statistics based on the outcome of the previous general election.

When Deputy Minister Sripathy Suriyarachchi predicted a landslide for Rajapakse he too was referring to the previous Parliamentary polls.

During the previous General Elections, the United People's Freedom Alliance polled 45.60 per cent of popular votes. With the advent of the Jathika Hela Urumaya - which won 5.97% of popular votes - into the Rajapakse camp, this would go over 51 per cent.

But, will the vote base remain consistent, which is hardly a possibility. Will the JHU be able to retain its share of impressive near 6 per cent of popular vote.

As for Ranil Wickremesinghe, will the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress and Ceylon Workers Congress, which he got into his fold with so much effort, be able to deliver the goods?

The CWC claims it has a 900,000 vote base of Tamils of Indian Origin.

But, at the previous Parliamentary Polls, under the United National Front banner, the Ceylon Workers Congress could poll only 176,900 (54.02%) in the predominantly estate Tamil districts and CWC bastion, Nuwara-Eliya.

This is also inclusive of UNP bloc votes in the district. The UNP lost the Matale District, which the alliance won by 8,000 votes.

This is also the same case with the SLMC, which claims to be the representative of the Sri Lanka Muslims. The SLMC could poll only 186,876 votes (2.02%) in the previous General election.

The SLMC also saw a number of crossovers by its parliamentarians in the recent times.

The Muslim vote bank is split and though the SLMC remains to be the main party, it is facing a tough challenge by the National Unity Alliance led by the widow of the SLMC founder, Ferial Ashraff.

Understandably, this election is going to be an expensive business, both for the government and candidates.

Under the conventional estimates, the election is to cost 900 million rupees from the public coffers. For the two main candidates, advertising expenses will run into billions.

Some time ago, when pointing to the perks and privileges of the MPs and Ministers, some guy was quoted as saying that: "democracy is always expensive". Of course, it is, we are now convinced.

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