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| Sunday, 23 October 2005 |
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The coming duel for power Sunday Essay by Ajith Samaranayake Never before has the Presidential Election field been so crowded as for next month's election. However it is clear that the fight is a duel between the two big-time contenders. The rest are mere extras pursuing a chimera, self-regarding individualists sprung from obscurity and destined to return to the same state of limbo. The only exception perhaps are the three Left candidates, the relatively unknown Chamal Jayanetti sporting Comrade Vickremabahu's colours, veteran Samasamajist Siritunga Jayasuriya now running under his own colours and Wije Dias of the Kirthi Balasuriya school of Dialectics, the last warrior of purist Trotskyism. A Presidential Election is basically about policy just as much as it is a contest between strong-willed individuals on an ultimate quest for the highest reaches of power. In that sense how is the present contest shaping up? UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe who was the first to canter on to the field began by saying that he would bring about peace on an unlikely front, what he chose to describe as the 'Kussiye Yuddhaya' or war in the kitchen. If the debonair Opposition Leader had thought that this would make him the darling of the housewives he was soon shifting ground and projecting himself as the successor to King Parakramabahu the Great, a mantle incidentally picked up from the late Prime Minister Dudley Senanayake who made this the main plank of his 1965-70 Government. This throwback to the agrarian UNP of the Senanayakes, the dynastic core of the Grand Old Party, itself is of more than passing interest. For it was President Jayewardene, Mr. Wickremesinghe's political mentor, who broke the Senanayake stranglehold on the UNP and what is more radically shifted the party's centre of gravity. If the pre-1973 UNP of the Senanayakes was wedded to the welfare state, a mixed economy and agrarian revival the new-look Jayewardene UNP stood unabashedly for an open market economy, liberalisation and export-led growth piloted by a new urban entrepreneurial class turning their faces away from plaebian agriculture to exotic export products like gherkins. This was the UNP which Mr. Wickremesinghe inherited and only time will tell whether this new UNP cry of 'Back to the Land' is only a reflex election-time gesture or signals a radical shift in policy. However, it has for the time being at least thrown up such curiosities as Dr. Rajitha Senaratne's bell-bottomed new-fangled farmer, a cross between the old betel-chewing farmer and the new lumpen denim-wearing generation spawned by urban popular culture. Even more bizarre is the spectacle of the futuristic coconut plucker communicating with the ground on a mobile telephone. Such oddities aside these new developments have sparked off at least a peripheral debate on economic policy. The 2002 Ranil Wickremesinghe Government was identified with the neo-liberalism of the 'Regaining Sri Lanka' manifesto described by its critics as contributing to the downfall of that Government. Is the UNP then ready to shift from the mercantile capitalism of the towns to the agrarian countryside? Or does it think that if can ride two horses at the same time through a new-fangled device of reviving the rural sector by injecting large doses of urban capital, for this clearly is the ideological underpinning of Dr. Senaratne's fond image of the bell-bottomed farmer. But obversely will the urban capitalist be ready to invest in the rural sector when there are more attractive offers on the market? On the other hand the UPFA and its Presidential candidate Mahinda Rajapakse are on more consistent ground when they advocate a sturdy national economy balancing the public and private sectors and leading to all-round national development. As for agriculture Mr. Rajapakse has a closer identification with the peasantry as tacitly acknowledged even by Mr. Wickremesinghe's campaign managers who have got him to shed his lounge suit for the more average if neutral shirt and trousers or tunic suit. But for Mr. Rajapakse the more worrying question will be whether he will be able to persuade substantial sections of the urban business and professional classes that their interests will not be jeopardised. It is necessary to keep in mind in this context that in 1994 President Kumaratunga was able to win such a degree of support from this constituency normally identified with the UNP. On the ethnic front Mr. Wickremesinghe has the advantage of adhering to his former stated position of the cessation of hostilities and negotiations based on the Tokyo and Oslo declarations. But this is not without its pitfalls for he is open to attack (as indeed he has been consistently) from nationalist positions. However, his advantage in the present contest is that these adversaries from the JVP and the JHU have now been incorporated into the Rajapakse campaign. This prompted an initial UNP line that a Rajapakse Presidency would lead to war but this seems to have abated. Mr. Rajapakse for his part talks of a honourable settlement and has been at pains to distance himself from any suggestion of sabre-rattling. However, he has clear differences with President Kumaratunga's policy on this matter and whether this will be to his advantage (in the sense that he will be able to distance himself somewhat from the incumbent President and project himself as his own man) or not is to be seen. As things stand therefore Mr. Wickremesinghe with his understanding with the SLMC and the CWC and expectations of the Tamil vote appears to be heavily banking on the minorities for support. Similarly Mr. Rajapakse will depend heavily on the southern vote with his own proven credentials in the south reinforced by his understanding with the JVP and the JHU. He is not without minority support either with the NUA and the EPDP on his bandwagon while he can rely on a section of the Muslim vote as well in his own right as a friend of the Palestinian cause. The SLFP and the UNP both being national political parties also have their core constituencies so that the outcome of the election will depend on what degree the victor will be able to eat into his rival's constituency while garnering the inevitable floating vote. |
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