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by Ranga Jayasuriya

It was Bernard Baruch, the one time advisor to Presidents Woodrow Wilson and John F. Kennedy who once said:

"Vote the man who promises least; he'll be the least disappointing."

For the sake of democracy, we better have some interest in what our leaders pledge at election time and how much of it is delivered.

Not only we Sri Lankans, but also do the rest of the world seem to think alike, at least on election promises.

But, still election pledges and grand manifestos matter as they are the only way to see through the minds of future Presidents or Prime Ministers.

It is in this context, that one need to go through the manifestos of the two main contenders, seeking a glimpse on life after their possible election win, though most election promises in the past never saw the light of day.

Perhaps, the most notable difference between the SLFP Presidential hopeful, Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse and his main rival, UNP Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe is about the solution to the ethnic question.

The Prime Minister, indeed, took a back seat, if not, was not involved in the handling of the peace process during the Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga administration.

And last week, when he spoke his mind out on the solution to the ethnic question, he suggested a radically different approach.

PM and peace process

"I am deeply convinced that we need to think from a fresh perspective and devise a new approach, if we are to find a sustainable solution to the conflict in the North and the East," states Rajapakse's election manifesto, Mahinda Chinthana (Mahinda's Vision) which was released last week.

He pledged to preserve the unitary nature of the state, in a marked deviation from Federalism which his party earlier accepted in principle as a basis for a political solution; he proposed to amend the truce agreement and review the monitoring mechanism of the truce agreement,i.e the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM).

He offered to examine the "merits and demerits" of the steps so far taken on the peace front and to consider a fresh approach.

His proposal is a multi- party approach, which involves primary negotiations with all political parties, religious and civil society associations.

This is in contrast to the previous peace efforts which were more or less a two party initiative where the government and the LTTE looked like the only stakeholders.

He is planning to conclude primary discussions, i.e those with political parties and civil society groups within three months and to develop a national consensus on issues where there is disagreement. He proposes that the talks with the Tigers be held within a specific time frame and a clear agenda, which is expected to evolve during the primary deliberations.

The agenda for talks with the Tigers should include renouncing separatism, demilitarisation, entry into the democratic process, a discussion towards a final solution and the implementation of that solution.

"In developing a national consensus, the sovereignty of Sri Lanka, territorial integrity, the unitary structure of the State, the identities of the different communities, the need to ensure peaceful co-existence among such communities, would be preserved," states Rajapakse in his manifesto.

He argues that devolving power to citizen, whereby "strengthening the power of citizenry" he could guide the nation to a political settlement, rather than being "trapped within concepts such as traditional homelands and right to self determination".

Convinced of the role of the international community in the peace process, internationalised from the outset, Rajapakse offers to talk to India on regional security and seeks to have close ties with China, Russia and Pakistan, countries which were the friends indeed when Sri Lanka faced tough times.

Referendum

He also offers to hold negotiations with the core-chairs to the Tokyo donor conference, the United States, European Commission, Norway and Japan.

And he offers to hold a referendum on the final solution.

Rajapkse's approach to the solution of the ethnic question, is understandably, heavily influenced by the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), a party which was against the peace process from its outset.

Even though Rajapakse wishes to amend the ceasefire agreement or review the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission, any changes in this regard should be mutually acceptable to the two parties to the CFA, i.e. the government and the LTTE.

Equally important, the rejection of a federal solution in favour of the continuance of the unitary structure of the State, if implemented would amount to the future Sri Lankan Government backtracking from its predecessors commitment to the Oslo and Tokyo Declarations.

These declarations, though one likes them or not, hold importance as these are, so far, the only guiding lights for a negotiated settlement to the ethnic conflict.

Wickremesinghe brief

To Rajapakse's merit, it should, however, be said that, he, in his manifesto, is elaborate, outlining his vision for a settlement and step by step implementation of his strategy.

Whereas Opposition Leader Wickremesinghe is brief and simplistic, which raise many questions about the implementation of his vision that remain unanswered.

Wickremesinghe pledged to bring a permanent solution to the ethnic problem through a political solution based on a united Sri Lanka.

"A consensus reached between the UNP and the UPFA on the ethnic problem, the agreement arrived at between the Government and the LTTE and the Oslo and Tokyo Declarations, which guarantees the unity, democratic character and territorial integrity of Sri Lankan has created the framework of a solution acceptable to all communities," states Wickremesinghe in his manifesto.

He offers a place for a separate Muslim delegation for peace talks. He also says he will talk to the SLFP on the peace process to reach consensus.

One main loophole in the handling of the peace process of the Wickremesinghe Administration was its exclusive nature, which saw even Wickeremesinghe's cabinet, except a few members of his inner circle, being kept in the dark about the peace negotiations.

The Opposition Leader seems to rectify this by trying to strike a consensus with the SLFP. He requests the people's mandate, not only to negotiate with the LTTE, but also to reach a consensus with the SLFP.

Both Rajapakse and Wickremesinghe pledge to set up a separate Ministry for the war displaced people.

Indeed, a ministry dedicated to the internally displaced persons have already been in place. It is called the Ministry of Relief, Rehabilitation and Reconciliation, where the President, herself is the Minister.

There were two Ministries during the Wickremesinghe Administration one headed by Jayalath Jayawardene and the other by Noordeen Mashoor.

But, given the ground reality, the implementation of projects in the North-East has always been a problem and will remain to be a problem, unless the cooperation of the LTTE is secured.

North-East votes

Still in the North- East; Wickremesinghe is already vying for the North-East votes. Last week he addressed rallies in Vavuniya, Batticaloa and Trincomalee.

Addressing a rally in Kantale, he admitted that there were lapses in the Ceasefire Agreement, but added that most of them were rectified within the first year itself.

"Some Muslims were killed, Muslim community leadership was complaining about the harassment at the hands of the LTTE. Three security forces personnel were gunned down. A few military intelligence operatives were killed."

"But, albeit all this, the LTTE complained that they suffered the most. Twenty-six LTTE cadres were killed. The Navy sank LTTE vessels," Wickremesinghe said examine pros and cons of the Ceasefire Agreement.

President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga is now a admirer of the truce agreement.

President on ceasefire

Addressing, an election rally of the Prime Minister, the President said: "Whatever others may have to say, I personally believe that the ceasefire brought about a peaceful situation in the country." She said she was leaving the office happy and satisfied.

Perhaps, the most important aspect of Rajapakse's manifesto is proposals to strengthen the welfare state through relief measures aimed at all walks of life, ranging from expectant mothers, infants, school children, differently abled persons, senior citizens and Samurdhi recipients.

He pledged to fill 33,000 vacancies in the public sector immediately and provide 2,400,000 jobs in the next six years, while sustaining an eight per cent economic growth.

On his part, Wickremesinghe pledges to declare a "war on high cost of living... and control inflation."

He offers to create 200,000 jobs in the first year and one million jobs in five years and sustain a 10 per cent economic growth rate by creating five economic zones.

He would provide two million more jobs in the next five years if he is elected for the second term. But, last week, at a press conference summoned by Sri Lanka Economist Association, its President Prof. A. D. V. de S.Indrarathne lamented that both main candidates had given emphasis on the vote catching gimmick, but failed to spell out how they would achieve targets.

"One party promises to give fertilizer at Rs 550, the other at Rs 350.One promises to create 100,000 jobs annually, the other 200,000 jobs. But what and how is not clearly spelled out," he said.

Rajapkse's senior economic advisor Ajith Nivard Cabraal last week ruled out privatisation in a future Rajapakse Administration.

New capital

He however said, that would not prevent the government from infusing new capital into the public ventures, adding that the government would look into globally acceptable other alternatives.

Cabraal said instead of privatisation, the government should appoint "decent" people for the top posts of public ventures and ensure a better management.

Moving to national security; Wickremesinghe's proposal to revamp Security Forces is viewed with suspicion.

Posters on the city walls state that Wickeremesinghe plans to reduce the man power of the Sri Lankan Army - i.e, the Army would be reduced to six regiments from its current strength of 32 regiments and would have no more than 30,000 rank and file.

At a press conference, the UNP Deputy Secretary General, Tissa Attanayake denied these allegations and pledged to modernize the Army and keep its full man power.

Wickeremesinghe offers to set up a National Security University.

Rajapakse on his part pledged to do the same, but also offered to develop military ties with India, Pakistan, China, Russia, UK and the United States, specially on sharing information and combating terrorism. He offers a gamut of welfare measures to the soldiers, including 50,000 houses.

In the Sri Lankan context, most election promises never saw the light of day. People could only swear and curse the candidates for six years, till they vote the same lot to the House in the next election. People could not impeach legislators who breached their election time promises.

But someone said democracy is for those who are concerned. At least for the sake of democracy, we better have some interest in what our leaders pledge at election time and how much of it is delivered.

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