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| Sunday,13 November 2005 |
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Features |  |
| News Business Features Editorial
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Writing on the wall by Ranga Jayasuriya Judging by the low voter turn out in the postal voting in Jaffna, it is increasingly clear that the Jaffna voters would observe an unofficial boycott of the Presidential poll obviously under the tacit approval and persuasion of the Tigers. The postal voter turnout in Jaffna was only 26 per cent (less than 1300) and the polling station in Kilinochchi was almost deserted -Both Jaffna and Kilinochchi administrative districts come under Jaffna Electoral District. Of course, the LTTE has announced that it would not obstruct the Tamil people's right to exercise their franchise, but it has mobilised its front organisations, calling for a boycott of the election, with certain such statements by such organisations carrying a veiled threat to the offenders, describing them as traitors who would be punished. Earlier, the Tigers disowned the election, announcing that they are completely uninterested in the outcome of the election. But, now judging by the conduct of the LTTE fronts and civilian activists, it is becoming clear that the Tigers have crossed what was presumed as their " neutral line". Unofficial boycott Of course, if you are to believe the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) General Secretary R. Sampanthan, the Tigers would not prevent people from exercising their franchise. "We will not stop the Tamil people from voting. We have no intention of taking away the democratic rights of the Tamil people. But we are confident that Tamil people, based on their own experiences, will not pay any attention to this election" Sampanthan was quoted in the LTTE Peace Secretariat Website. Yes, the Tigers have not announced a ban on voting, but the LTTE, through its front organisations are working out an unofficial boycott, whereby it would present to the international community that the collective thinking of the Tamils is that they no longer trust Southern politicians nor do they wish to take part in Southern politics. If the boycott is seen as voluntary, this would be a coup for the LTTE, which recently had a number of setbacks in its campaign for legitimacy. And in the monolithical society the Tigers have created, it is hard to expect a reasonable voter turnout on November 17, without the approval of the Tigers. On Thursday, the LTTE proxy TNA met Tiger political commissar S.P. Thamilselvan to discuss the Tamil stance on the election. Indeed, the meeting was meticulously timed, having been postponed on two previous occasions, one would suggest, to keep the southern electorate in suspense. But, the outcome of the meeting was only a reiteration of previous remarks by a number of LTTE front rankers including Thamilselvan. "When we view the election with these in mind, we are sure that Tamils do not need to care about the coming election. "Our clear position is that Tamils will gain nothing by taking an interest in the election." while pointing to the frustration of Tamils at the slow progress of addressing immediate humanitarian needs, LTTE peace secretariat website reported the meeting and its outcome. And the website stated that the Tamils have lost confidence in both main political parties and the Presidential election would not bring about an acceptable solution to the National question. Indeed, the LTTE, while hinting its indifference, has been mobilising its front organisations at to campaign for a boycott of the election. It was a previously unknown student organisation which first asked people to boycott the election. Last week, two Jaffna based organisations- Consortium of Tamil Speaking Peoples Trade Unions and Clerical Employees Union- echoed the same demands, calling the public servants to boycott postal voting. "A solution that is dependent on ethnic majoritarian consent as the way to resolve the Tamil National question will stand little chance of being successful," Consortium of Tamil Speaking People's Trade Union said in a statement. And as we have pointed out in our previous columns, it will be Ranil Wickremesinghe's loss, if voters keep away from polling stations in Jaffna. Understandably, Wickremesinghe, having brought a ruinous war to a halt through the Ceasefire Agreement of which the main beneficiary are the Tamils- though this would be contested by the LTTE-has secured a soft corner in the hearts of Tamils. The general impression was that the electoral advantage the Opposition Leader would have in Jaffna, in case of a high voter turn out would help him mitigate his possible election losses in the Southern electorate.Even the UNPers will agree that Wickremesinghe is not faring well in the South. He has difficulties taking his message across the rural electorate. But, the LTTE has let him down and virtually neutralised his would be electoral advantage. During the previous Parliamentary elections of 2004, TNA contesting under the Illakai Thamil Arasu Kachchi obtained 633,654 votes in the North-East. The TNA obtained 257,320 votes in the Jaffna electoral district which is over 90 per cent of the popular votes in the district. In the Wanni electoral district- which consists of Mullaitivu, Mannar and Vavuniya- the TNA polled 151,003 votes, which is over 64 per cent of the popular vote. Deserted polling booths What is increasingly clear right now is that without a sophisticated manipulation of the Tigers, who ran the TNA's election campaign last time, the greater part of the voters residing in the Wanni would not turn up at the cluster polling stations. And there are other logistical problems, for instance transport, which Government Agents and Grama Niladaries alone would not be able to manage without the involvement of the LTTE. When these were added to the LTTE's behind the curtain campaign for a boycott, this envisages a gloomy picture of deserted polling booths. This is obviously the LTTE's strategy. The LTTE does not want to lose its control over the public nor does it wish to share the loyalty of the Jaffna populace. But, history has other lessons also. There can always be individuals who stand for their fundamental right. During the Presidential poll of 1999, which was held at the height of Eelam war, President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunge won 52,043 and her main rival Mr Wickremesinghe secured 48,005 votes in the Jaffna electoral district. Wickremesinghe, can still count on individual bravery to see people reneging the LTTE wish to throng the polling stations. But, given the transformation of the Jaffna polity during the ceasefire, during which the Tigers expanded its network and took the control of every aspect of public life, it too remains an uphill task. Perhaps, Wickremesinghe will now have to concentrate all his energy on the Southern electorate. That is perhaps the most sensible option. |
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