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Bull's Eye by a Special Defence Correspondent

A week ahead of the Maveerar Day, the day to commemorate the LTTE fallen cadres, its Ellalan force has pasted 'get out' posters trumpeting typical war slogans and warning security forces to evacuate the Northern peninsula. Their dictatorship and rule of jungle law was displayed well as they robbed people of their democratic right when they stopped them going to polls in the last Presidential elections. The election monitoring groups would carry the message of the LTTE's hegemony to the world, as they were able to witness the undemocratic behavior of the LTTE and their violence during the election.

Despite the Tiger growl, President Mahinda Rajapakse during his speech at the swearing in ceremony on November 19 and later at the inauguration of new parliament sessions last Friday announced the stance of his Government on the North East conflict - dignified peace to all communities. His open invitation to the LTTE to return to the negotiation table would be an ideal opportunity for the LTTE to have a concrete dialogue with all the groups concerned and come to a lasting settlement. The new Government is now waiting to see the response of the LTTE, which is to be announced by its leader Velupillai Pirabaharan during his speech on Maveerar Day.

The violence escalated by the LTTE on election eve to prevent people voting receded after November 18 but it was gaining momentum from November 20 while the group has been preparing for the Maveerar Day. Though the LTTE leadership has taken full strength to show the world that they are able to maintain the dignity and organisational power to return to war, the truth is that Pirabaharan's strength has been receding due to various drawbacks at home and abroad. Certain moderate Tamil groups in London have argued whether the British Government would allow Al Qaeda group to hold events like Tiger Maveerar celebrations as both groups are proscribed terrorist outfits in Britain. The moderates further sought legal support in the UK asking the courts to prevent Maveerar Day which the group theoretician Anton Balasingham is scheduled to address.

Double speaking statements by LTTE Political Wing Leader S.P.Thamilselvan and their proxies, TNA in Colombo bear testimony to the group's waning power and strength. Sometimes, they deny going to war and later they threaten imminent war. This typical political contradiction seen during election time was fully used by the UNP in its failed election propaganda campaign.

However, the Government and the people have now realised that the LTTE has no such power to return to war suddenly and they are not in a position to fight such a war under the present circumstances. Pirabaharan has faced many challenges mainly due to lack of trained cadres, increasing international pressure and leadership crisis brewing within the group. Young cadres who were fatigued of forbidden life in Vanni jungles seem to leave the group with their relatives, and last week two such LTTE cadres surrendered themselves to the police through the American Embassy. About 400 such cadres have surrendered to the security forces since the CFA and many of the cadres are children. The youngest among them are a girl and a boy below the age of 10 years. 54 cadres are below the age of 15 and 143 are below the age of 18. 188 persons between the age of 19 and 30 and six cadres are over the age of 30. . Therefore the sporadic violence in the North and East as well as other killings in the city seemed to be the angry reaction of an armed group in decline.

The LTTE leadership now finds it very difficult to tackle the increasing crisis including tsunami destruction, cadres leaving the group, the Karuna challenge, international tour ban by the EU, allegations of child conscription, continuous killing of opponents and above all the group lacking support from the people as they havelost confidence in the group in the LTTE stronghold in Vanni.

In such an environment, the LTTE's power to resume war is gradually deflating and the only option if they want to settle the conflict is to return to talks with the new Government led by President Rajapakse. Threatening security forces and the Government would not help the LTTE to find a peaceful solution to the problem. The LTTE is responsible to save the people in their controlled areas from prolonged sufferings of the war and later the tsunami destruction, therefore, their task at this crucial juncture is to commit themselves to peace for the sake of the people and return to talks with the Government with immediate effect and prove themselves that they are representing the Tamils. A distressed effort such as threatening would not build the losing morale of its frustrated cadres, and moderate decisions at the peace table would help bring lasting peace to save the destitute people suffering for years in the LTTE grip.

The political environment in the country is conducive as the new President has the full backing of the majority Sinhala Buddhists and the support of other political groups which the LTTE and other peace merchants have labelled as extremists. The new President's proposal to sit with all such affected and concerned groups around one table and start talks would create a good platform for them to engage in a strong and concrete dialogue to come to a lasting settlement amicably.

Leaving aside hypotheses of various people, prejudices of others, meeting one another at the peace table would be a pragmatic step to find a realistic solution. President Rajapakse would be able to make extremist forces if any flexible in taking crucial decisions in the peace settlement too. The LTTE should take this situation into serious consideration provided they are committed to a peaceful settlement. The international community would have studied the new President's sincere effort in this regard. His opponents predicted a possible withdrawal by Norway from the peace mediation if Rajapakse wins the election. Clearing such unfounded fears, Norwegians have already informed President Rajapakse of their willingness to continue facilitation, which is welcomed by all peace-loving citizens.

Meanwhile, the LTTE's modus operandi to be launched in Colombo during the elections period failed due to the stiff security net by the three forces and the police. Cadres who arrived in the city with different missions before the elections are now awaiting orders from the leadership in Vanni. Intelligence sources received information that the Black Tigers were targeting main candidates during the campaign but no one was able to find a security lapse to achieve the target. The fear psychosis created by leaving suicide jackets etc previous to the elections also did not work. If the military authorities maintain the same security net in the city further, it would be difficult for the LTTE cadres and underworld gangs to operate freely in the city.

Information was received to the effect that two ash coloured motor cars with explosives were roaming in the city during election time, and a LTTE cadre named Kannan was put in charge of a group consisting several young attractive women posing as sex workers to reach influential individuals and collect information from them about the movement of certain VIPs. Kannan had been provided with a mobile phone with incoming facilities only. This group operates in isolation from other groups in Colombo with similar assignments. Among them are the Black Tiger duo turned intelligence experts Keerthi and Ramanan.

Police found it difficult to nab perpetrators as many LTTE cadres who pass through the Omanthai check point use one identity card and use a new one with a different name in Colombo. They used to bribe certain influential officers of the Department of Registration of Persons through touts to obtain fake identity cards and live in lodges in the city as well as in the suburbs. Police perhaps arrest some wanted cadres during raids but the officers are compelled to release them as the culprits have the cover up of the fake identity cards. Therefore, it is necessary to introduce a system to scan the process of issuing new identities by military intelligence.

With the advent of the new administration, President Rajapakse would take firm action to revive law and order. Cleansing the city and suburbs of all underworld activities and other evils would be given priority under a special program and people from all walks of life would no doubt hail President Rajapakse's effort as they would be able to move in the city freely round the clock. Such an environment is essential to run the daily business of the city for the entrepreneurs as well as other city users. Medium and Small Businessmen operating in the city would be the most benefited group under such a clean urban commercial society, as they would no longer be forced to pay ransom to city thugs. Such businessmen would no doubt volunteer to pay due taxes to the Government as they would be relieved from losing half of their hard earned money squandered by those organized gangsters for years.

President Rajapakse has been confident that the problems would be discussed even without any foreign mediation, and he showed his readiness to meet LTTE Leader Pirabaharan. Rajapakse's victory as the head of state is a true social revolution. People have kept immense hope of peace and prosperity, and his straightforwardness is a sign of honesty. The typical complaint by the LTTE, the TNA and some other Tamils is that the Sinhala leaders have betrayed them since independence. Now a person from a different stratum has taken over the rule of the country. He has promised everything in a new format, of peace and development with equal benefit to every citizen.

As a man of the masses, his pledge of sincerity and commitment would make him stand out from his predecessors who hailed from the elite. Therefore, the majority Sinhalese who gave a mandate to Rajapakse to achieve peace and prosperity, work for the common man, would believe that the LTTE would drop the utopia of a separate state and use Rajapakse's offer to work together for a compatible solution to end the bloodshed and rancour.

Elections and the security forces

The Elections Commissioner whilst thanking all those who helped conduct the elections did appreciate the services rendered by the Police and the Security Forces.

The Security Forces planned for the conduct of the election based on previous experience immediately after the Supreme Court delivered the decision that the Presidential Election must be held this year. Chief of Defence Staff Admiral Daya Sandagiri took the initiative and summoned his first coordinating conference on 20 September 2005 at the Joint Operations Headquarters. All Service Commanders, IGP, Commandant STF and Senior Officers from the Intelligence Agencies together with Director Operations of the respective services attended this discussion and a series of other meetings that took place subsequently. The concept of operations was discussed and the CDS emphasized that the Police is responsible to coordinate measures with the assistance of the Security Forces.

The Security Forces were to assist the Police by establishing road blocks, vehicle check points, guard vulnerable points, deploy troops in sensitive areas and also maintain a reserve force for other contingencies. It was also discussed that the Army would secure roads in liaison with the Police for the safe transportation of ballot boxes together with the election staff. The Navy and the Air Force were tasked to arrange suitable naval and air transport for the returning officers, ballot boxes and the election staff as required by the Elections Commissioner. The Security forces deployed over 8000 troops in areas other than the North and East.

The bulk of these troops were from the Army whereas the Navy and Air Force contributed with over a 1000 troops each. No troops were pulled out from the North and East operational areas to provide security in other parts of the country. In order to meet the commitment the Service Commanders decided to enforce a "live in" order during the crucial period. Thus it was not a difficult task to muster the required numbers. The pre election deployment commenced on 03rd November 2005 and all troops were in location by 06th November 2005. The main deployment commenced on 15th November 2005 and all was in place for the election on the 17th November 2005.

It was emphasized that no troops from the armed forces should be deployed within a radius of five hundred meters from the polling booths as instructed by the Elections Commissioner. On the day of the election all Security Forces patrols and escorts were to be accompanied by at least 01 Policeman. The Service Commanders issued instructions to their Field Commanders to ensure that all troops under their command do not involve themselves in political activities. Senior Officers were also instructed to liaise with the respective Government Agents and Senior Police Officers to ensure an incident free election. The Joint Operations Headquarters established an Operations Room to monitor the security situation in the entire country. The respective service Headquarters too had their own Operations Room to monitor the progress and the conduct of security duties by the respective services.

There is no doubt that the role played by the Security Forces in providing security had a positive impact on the peaceful outcome of the election. Through meticulous planning and preparation the Security Forces had indeed successfully carried out a major commitment without hassle. The dedication and commitment of the troops on the ground despite certain shortcomings such as inadequate transport facilities and relief personnel for duty is remarkable. It is also evident that Commanders at all levels had cooperated with each other towards meeting their respective obligations. The rapport between the three services and the Police is also significant. The fact that there were no incidents reported against the conduct of the Security Forces by any candidate despite a closely contested election speaks volumes of the impartial and independent stance adopted by the Security Forces in carrying out their duties. This certainly augurs well for the Security Forces and the country. Hence this time it is a bouquet to the Security Forces fewer the brickbats. Well done.

In this context it is hilarious to note the claim made by certain groups monitoring the elections that the peaceful atmosphere during the poll was due to their efforts. On the contrary they tried to exaggerate even the few and sporadic minor incidents of violence for fear that donor agencies might limit the supply of green bucks at future elections. The less of them the better.

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