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by Ranga Jayasuriya

It was a special day at the Army Head Quarters. Lt.General Sarath Fonseka had assumed duty as the 18th Commander of the Sri Lankan Army.

In the sunny Tuesday morning, officers and soldiers of the Sri Lanka Army line up to listen to the inaugural address of the new Army commander and a contagion of journalists eagerly await till one of the best battle hardened Commanders in the two decades of ethnic war spells out his vision for the future of the Army.

Then the distressing comes from the Jaffna peninsula that seven soldiers had been killed in a claymore mine explosion. The Tigers seemed to have meticulously timed the explosion as Gen.Fonseka- one of the most loathsome by the Tigers- assumed duty in the top post of the Sri Lankan Army.

Gen. Fonseka later said that, given his past record, it was not surprising if the Tigers see him as a challenge.

The claymore mine explosion on Tuesday was the second such attack within three days at the Security Forces in Jaffna. Seven soldiers were killed in the first claymore mine explosion, which blew up the tractor they were travelling in Kondavil, 6 km from Jaffna on Sunday.

Explosions

The second claymore mine explosion at Irupalai on Tuesday morning killed one officer and six soldiers on the spot. Another soldier who was critically injured succumbed to injuries, once he was flown to Colombo and admitted to the Colombo National Hospital.

A vehicle belonging to the Swiss Embassy was also damaged in the claymore mine blast on Tuesday.

The two explosions were the culmination of an increasing number of shooting incidents and attacks at the security forces in Jaffna.

Does that mean the Tiger supremo is planning, as he said in his heroes' day speech, to " intensify... struggle."

This is, of course, the most serious act of provocation by the Tigers during the nearly four years of the ceasefire. This is the first time that 18 security forces personnel were killed within a week, even though the Tigers have committed a number of high profile assassinations, including that of Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar and a number of military intelligence operatives and Tamil political activists.

But, while continuing with a spree of ceasefire violations, the Tigers have also tried their best to deny their involvement in such ceasefire violations.

As for the question whether the Tigers plan a return to war, my answer would be in the negative. That is because the Tigers have gained considerably during the ceasefire, perhaps more in terms of the build up of its administrative structure than military strength.

LTTE military strength

Of course, it is hard to asses the improvements of the LTTE's military strength even though there are intelligence reports that the Tigers have sneaked in a few artillery pieces.

And the Tigers have also trained a few thousand volunteers who would act as an auxiliary force should the war begin. But, it is open to question, how many of such volunteers would offer service in a real war, once weapon systems start to work.

Those volunteers, who were detailed to carry supplies to the fighting cadres and secure border check points were a main casualty of the Multi Barrel Rocket Launchers system (MBRL) once it was introduced to the Security Forces after the Elephant Pass debacle.

As for the military strength of the LTTE, Gen Fonseka last week at his inaugural press conference put the number of hard core fighting cadres of the LTTE at 4,000-5,000 and the overall strength of the LTTE, including its civilian and administrative activists at 7,000-8,000.

Karuna revolt

These are the statistics of the LTTE's man power after its Eastern military commander Vinayagamoorthy Muralitharan alias Karuna revolted against Prabhakaran and disbanded the 4,000-5,000 men Eastern Tiger wing.

In case of the resumption of war, Gen Fonseka said the Army would have to fight a conventional war in the North, while an unconventional war in the East.

Most visible achievements of the LTTE during the ceasefire is on its administrative front. The LTTE has invested heavily on its peace time infrastructure. Its administrative infrastructure such as LTTE court complex, police stations, headquarters of various LTTE front organisations were all constructed after the ceasefire and, practically speaking, will last till the ceasefire is on hold.

It is everybody's knowledge that the pre-Ceasefire Wanni was another word to a medieval state where people lived in absolute penury and all the symbols of a modern civilization were destroyed beyond use during the two decades of conflict.

Though Prabhakaran was known to gamble with the peace process, it is hard to expect, him to decide a return to the war as that would only be a matter of days before the Wanni returns to its pre-ceasefire form.

Another achievement of the LTTE, during the ceasefire is that it took -or forced- the Jaffna population under its sway.

Voter turn out

If you are to go through the voter turn out in the Jaffna Electoral District during the 1999 Presidential poll and the 2005 presidential poll, these statistics are evident of the LTTE's increasing control of the Northern populace. In 1999, during the height of the Eelam war, approximately 100,000 voted in the Jaffna District where as only 8,000 turned up at recently concluded Presidential election.

The LTTE, through its political cadres and undercover activists have taken the Jaffna population under its control. It has set up various front organisations a.k.a civilian based organisations as mentioned in the pro-LTTE publications, which carry out orders from Kilinochchi.

But, what is however of equal importance is that what is possible during the ceasefire, may not be possible in case of the resumption of war.

A successful counter-insurgency takes only a matter of months to sweep the undercover LTTE operatives out of Jaffna. Such operations were conducted after the recapture of Jaffna, specially in the aftermath of the killing of then Jaffna security commander by a female suicide bomber.

Such counter-insurgency operations however had a strain on the country's human rights record. These are the dilemmas the Tiger supremo will have if he decides on war over peace. And going by the reactions of the LTTE leadership, both its local leaders and political leadership in Kilinochchi, it is indicative that the Tigers, while engaging in covert attacks at the security forces, do not wish a full scale war.

Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission Chief Hagrup Haukland said,"the LTTE is still interested in a dialogue with the government side."

Dialogue

Indeed, a meeting was scheduled to take place on Monday afternoon, facilitated by the SLMM between the Security Forces Jaffna Commander Major General Sunil Tennakoon and LTTE local leadership.

But, Gen. Tennakoon did not turn up for the meeting, having been informed by the Peace Secretariat that a high level dialogue was required between the two sides before any local level meeting takes place. Next day the Tigers blew up another claymore mine, which cost the lives of eight soldiers.

Haukland said, "we (SLMM) are working hard to get the two parties to a dialogue. That is very important to de-escalate the situation".

He commended the Security Forces for the restraint shown in the aftermath of the two claymore mine explosions.

He said even though there is tension, it is not out of the control.

Reading of the tri-forces commanders on the current situation is also the same.

On Friday, the Chief of Defence Staff, Admiral Daya Sandagiri and tri-forces commanders- Army Commander Lt.General Sarath Fonseka, Air Force Commander Air marshal Donald Perera, Navy Commander Vice Admiral Wasantha Karannagoda and Police Chief IGP Chandra Fernando held a joint media briefing on the current security situation.

That was mainly aimed at dispelling fears that the country is sliding back to war and to reiterate that the security forces are prepared to face any threat.

"The specific challenge for the Security Forces at present is that the LTTE is trying to provoke the troops in Jaffna. We are fully aware of it and not getting ourselves involved in it," Chief of Defence Staff Admiral Sandagiri told the reporters.

"If we have to decide between the ceasefire agreement and conducting an offensive, we are certainly not thinking of an offensive now," he said, however adding," we are prepared. We have the superior position. There is no doubt about it".

Admiral Sandagiri described the two claymore mine explosions as "not acts of war, but acts of terrorism."

Gen.Fonseka earlier said the intelligence reports have indicated that only two groups of undercover LTTE operatives were engaged in attacks against the security forces in the North.

Meanwhile, last week President Mahinda Rajapakse invited the Norwegian government to resume its role as the peace facilitator. The President met the Norwegian Ambassador Hans Brattskar last week where he extended the government's request for the continuance of the Norwegian peace facilitation.

And next day Ambassador Brattskar travelled to Jaffna and from there he travelled by road to Kilinochchi, where he met LTTE political commissar S.P.Thamilselvan.

Peace Secretariat website

The LTTE Peace Secretariat website reported that, "the Ambassador briefed Thamilselvan on the current political situation, his meetings with President Mahinda Rajapaksa, the official invitation of the government for continuation of Norway's role as facilitator, his visit to New Delhi with former peace envoy and Norway's Minister for Development, Mr. Erik Solheim, the concern relative to the tense situation in the Jaffna peninsula and the urgent necessity for the parties to meet and find ways of effectively implementing the Cease Fire Agreement".

Thamilselvan was quoted as saying that the "military was intensifying violence against civilian confrontation" as the cause for the confrontation.

"The CFA is in grave risk due to default of the government and its military in implementing the provisions mutually agreed upon by both the parties.

Non-delivery of the peace dividend normalcy notwithstanding, the government continues to allow its military to act in collusion with armed groups that have political agendas based on their masters' interests. These groups are responsible for the acts of violence, intimidation, killing and provoking civilian unrest," Thamilselvan was quoted as saying.

Commitment to CFA

Thamilselvan described President Rajapakse's invitation to Oslo to continue its facilitatory role as a "reciprocal act to our National Leader's Martyr's Day speech that provided the necessary space for the new President to grasp the situation in good faith..."

" Our commitment to the CFA and the peace process remains undiluted and what we request now is to urgently arrange the high level meeting between the parties to effectively implement the CFA, for this alone can bring about normalcy and avoid confrontational postures between the civilians and the occupying military," he said.

Ambassador Brattskar has underlined the need for a visit by high level Norwegian peace delegation to Sri Lanka to discuss with both parties the full implementation of the Ceasefire Agreement and the role of Norway and that of the SLMM.

"We reiterated the necessity to expedite this visit and ensure early meeting of both the parties," Thamilselvan said.

Meanwhile Norwegian Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg visited New Delhi on Thursday for talks with Indian political Leaders on a number of issues, one of which is the Sri Lankan peace process. Stoltenberg was quoted as saying to reporters in New Delhi:

"If they (Sri Lankan government and the LTTE) don't want us, we have other things to do. We are interested in facilitatory talks only if both parties are serious about reaching a solution. If they are not willing, there is no role for Norway."

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