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| Sunday, 8 January 2006 |
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Features |  |
| News Business Features Editorial
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Tigers eye Jaffna city
Bull's Eye by a Special Defence Correspondent In the backdrop of increasing attacks on the security forces in the North, orders were given to the security forces to act in self defence. This has developed to a volatile situation with tension and panic being the order of the day in the peninsular.
Having disregarded international pressure to stop violence and the warning by the Co Chairs of the Tokyo donor group, the Tiger leadership has been preparing to launch a major offensive against the security forces in Jaffna intending to recapture the control of the peninsular. Newspapers reported this during the last week and Military Intelligence confirmed that Tigers are waiting until they are strategically prepared fully to face retaliation by the security forces. It is also confirmed that the LTTE is deploying the fighting cadres in close proximity to the Forward Defence Lines (FDL) in the general area of Nagarkovil and Muhamalai, two areas that come under Tiger control at present. The Tiger tactic is believed to be the consolidation of their full power to launch a final attack in the North to recapture Jaffna on the one hand, and on other hand, to delay peace talks by haggling over time frames and agenda. They are supposed to raise objections on minor matters and mark time while their military wing would be operating on the ground awaiting the best time for negotiations. Once they recapture Jaffna town, the group would be able to stand strong at the negotiation table. Under such circumstances, their strategy is to bargain on the peace deal and demand control of the East even without any military struggle. Tigers would seek to convince the peace mediators too of their power and persuade them to talk to the Government to consider their demand to achieve their Eelam target on the pretext of peace. Tigers believe that it is not impossible provided the peace mediators would pressurize the Government because so far, the Government has paid heed to their instructions. So Tigers would believe that the Government would allow them to consolidate their power in the East. Tigers are heavily upset about losing control in the East during the last couple of years, especially after the split of Karuna, and the LTTE's main agenda is to use the Government forces to stop Karuna's operations in the East. If they become successful in neutralising Karuna's group in the East, it would be a major achievement of Pirabaharan's Eelam dream. The Government seems to be undecided yet whether to retaliate against the enemy or restrain oneself as in the past. Apart from the Army, what instructions were given to other two forces, the Navy and the Air force? The two commanders are still silent on their stance on the LTTE offensives against their soldiers. Therefore, a joint military scheming is vital to face the Tigers in any possible offensive in the North, and it is also imperative to prepare such plans in time as rushing to war without strategies would harvest irreparable human losses to the forces as well as their firepower. Due to the dearth of their cadres, Tigers have started a new scheme to give military training to the civilians in the area, and many people have already been trained to handle sophisticated weapons in emergency situations. Military surveillance reports confirmed last week of LTTE military standoff near the FDLs and busy training of civilians at Thalaiadi, a few miles North of Elephant Pass. At the same time, they have distributed leaflets in the LTTE stronghold areas of the East inviting deserters to return to duty on a temporary basis. They have been advised to call upon the nearest LTTE camp and join the cadres at least for a temporary period of time. Meanwhile, Bhanu - the head of the fighting unit of Batticaloa has been summoned to serve in the North. This has has led to speculation of an imminent LTTE onslaught on Jaffna. Bhanu is a contemporary of Karuna, who mainly masterminded and planned some most successful attacks on several major military camps including Mullaitivu and the Elephant Pass. They were jointly responsible for many other killing sprees in the East where hundreds of security personnel and civilians were killed during the past two decades. Information has also been received that the LTTE has positioned its artillery gun range near the FDLs, which is another clue to their preparedness for a possible major attack on Jaffna. While the situation in the North is becoming more volatile, the cadres in Colombo have been ordered to be ready with their missions to upset the day to day life in the city. Tigers have pressurised their proxies, the TNA MPs to protest against the arrest of any Tamil person whether they are LTTE cadres or not and mobilize all other forces including NGOs which appear in the name of human rights to join their protest and blame the government. The government has to give serious thought to the security situation in the city as the LTTE may launch attacks in the city's vital targets. They had a free run during the UNP regime and riding on the CFA loopholes, they were able to bring arms and ammunition to the city and hide them in strategic positions to be used on demand. Though the Government launched search operations in the city, it is hard to think that they will be able to raid the caches of arms or the true perpetrators. In this column recently we revealed how the LTTE use Sinhala criminal gangs on Tiger missions and on other secret operations such as drug trafficking, murdering politicians, military intelligence officers and others labeled as LTTE opponents. A think tank comprising intelligence, military officials of three forces and police and officers of other vital institutions such as emigration and immigration, customs, motor traffic etc should sit together and find out ways and means to combat this menace without delay if the government is to fight terrorism in the city. Despite security operations and taking in of over 900 suspects for questioning, the crime rate in Colombo has not been reduced when considering the criminal incidents in the city during the last week. Apart from the killings in the North and East, there were several murders reported within the Colombo city during the last seven days. Police failed to find out any information of the killers or motive of the killings including the murder of an Indian business executive working in Colombo. The real murder groups may have evaded any arrest during the operation. The authorities should focus their attention on why they failed to nab them. Any ordinary man could imagine that they would have left the area before hand and it is worth investigating how such criminals received the news of possible security operations in the metropolis. As we revealed in our past columns, the news could be leaked to them by those within the police and security forces who are also in the pay lists of narcotic kingpins and other criminal gangs. Therefore, working with the betrayers would bring dangers to the genuine officers. It is the general understanding that there is a shortage of narcotics in the city after the recent security operations. However, when considering the quantity of drugs and suspects taken into custody, one cannot help believing that the city is sans a major drug nuisance. Why did the police fail to apprehend the drug kingpins and their massive stocks? The reason would be the leakage of the news to the culprits beforehand. Two weeks before the police started its raids, the IGP during his speech to his subordinates in a training workshop said that he would start a war against city drug dealers. This could pass a good message to the culprits and all the wanted men in the city fled to safe houses here or abroad. They removed their large stocks to the disappointment of the cops. It is learnt that many drug kingpins have flown to India for holidays soon after the IGP's speech was telecast over certain television channels. According to Tamilnet, there is no LTTE operations taking place in the North as all killings, kidnapping and other violence are done by unidentified gunmen. Therefore, the duty of the security forces is to get the culprits and identify them. The LTTE has already violated the CFA over 5000 instances, and on all such occasions, the Government response was very vague. Apart from an official complaint to the SLMM, no tangible step was taken and knowing this lukewarm response, Tigers made it a point to continue with violations, and in the abscene of a strong mediator, the Government is compelled to be satisfied with their decisions. This could be the major reason, that the LTTE is firm on keeping Norway as the facilitator and the mediator in peace talks. The President's proposal to appoint two parties as facilitator and monitor is most welcome, and such a move would justify both parties provided the plan gets realised. However, it is hard to believe that the LTTE would go for an all out war with the Government openly, due to multiple reasons. A major reason among them is the possible objections from the residents in the area who would no longer be able to bear the sufferings of a fourth war. Another reason is the LTTE's reluctance to see destruction of their rehabilitated infrastructure and lose revenue in the form of ransom and tax. They are also afraid of losing international sympathy and possible sanctions. Therefore, the LTTE would continue with their hit and run tactics to destabilise the normal life to create political instability. |
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Constant cordon and search operations have perturbed the LTTE
sympathisers who harbour the Tigers that plan attacks. Many such families
have left for Tiger held Kilinochchi to avoid security checks. Are these
sympathizers offended by the constant security checks or does their leaving
herald any possible LTTE offensive against the Government forces in the next
few weeks? 
