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by Ranga Jayasuriya

Of course, we can't read Prabhakaran's mind. The man is unpredictable and ambitious and treacherous, as he has proved to be given the way he ditched his custodians, allies and counterparts during the two decades of a ruthless insurgency.

But, it is not that difficult to comprehend the strategy he and his intelligence chief Pottu Amman have now put in place.

The Tigers have not abrogated the truce agreement, but continue with attacks on the security forces while absolving their involvement.

By not withdrawing from the truce agreement and thereby not returning to a full scale war, Prabhakaran does what his smuggled SAM missiles could not do. i.e neutralising the Sri Lankan Air Force. That is one aspect where the superiority of the security forces remains unchallenged, though intelligence reports have now confirmed that Tigers have acquired micro-light flying machines, which can be used for a suicide operation against a key military installation in the North or East.

Though former LTTE Wanni commander "colonel" Banu sounds overwhelmed with the rudimentary air power of the Tigers- Banu said last week that, " the LTTE air force is combat ready"- as Air Force Commander Air Marshal Donald Perera once described the threat of LTTE's rudimentary air craft is equal to an explosive laden car.

Following the attack on the Navy Dvora gunboat, which killed 13 sailors including two officers in the sea off Foul Point, the LTTE responded with a hollow silence to the queries by the Scandinavian truce monitors as to whether the Tigers were responsible for the attack.

The attack, was viewed as an LTTE retaliation against the mystery killing of five youth in Trincomalee, of whom three were suspected of their involvement in grenade attacks at the Security Forces. Soon after the blowing up of the gunboat, the LTTE run website Nitharsanam.com ran the picture of a Dvora gun boat along with snap shots of five young men.

This was viewed as a subtle way of telling that the LTTE blew up the gunboat as five youth were killed allegedly by the security forces.

But within days, the Tigers blasted a Navy convoy in Chettikulam killing nine sailors and a homeguard and injuring 10 sailors.

What explanation could the LTTE apologists give for this attack?

The apologists of LTTE violence and the country's NGO wallahs could find many a justification. And terrorism thrives in these explanations. Such pep talks would prop up extremism and only help extremists to seek legitimacy.

By stepping up attacks on the Security Forces, the LTTE has brought the government to a tactical point; When in the opposition, it wanted action against relatively minor violations of the ceasefire and now barely within two months of having consolidated power, it has now been forced to restrain itself in the face of the acts of worst ever ceasefire violations.

The government has ruled out a return to war due to LTTE provocations and, indeed as evident in the past few weeks, has shown a remarkable restraint, as well as, a commitment to the peace process.

And the President has summoned an all party conference on January 19 to seek a southern consensus on the solution to the National Question.

But, how long can the government hold on while the Tigers continue to violate the truce agreement with impunity?

And how long will the Tigers play this game behind the curtain of the CFA before going for a full scale confrontation having abrogated the ceasefire agreement, which is also a possibility given the utter contempt the Tigers have shown to the pronouncements by the international community.

However, one possible less dangerous scenario which could emerge in the coming days is that the Tigers having played out a murderous rage, aiming at a greater leverage in any future negotiations - whether it is on the CFA review or the resumption of peace talks- would calm down once certain guarantees are secured during the proposed visit of the Norwegian International Development Minister Erik Solheim, who is also the Minister In charge of the facilitation of the Sri Lankan peace process.

Solheim is expected to visit the island from January 23 to 26.

Norwegian peace facilitators have already informed that Solheim and his delegation would not be content with meeting only with the LTTE political commissar, S.P.Thamilselvan and need access to the top of the LTTE hierarchy, i.e Supremo Velupillai Prabhakaran.

When a government fights terrorism it does so with one hand tied behind its back and that is the very situation the Security Forces are now facing in the North-East.

The Security Forces are engaged in a delicate task of taking control in Jaffna, infiltrated by hundreds of LTTE agents and under cover cadres who smuggled weapons and explosives exploiting the freedom of movement offered by the ceasefire agreement.

Counter-insurgency operations are bound to cause inconvenience to public. But the point here is that such operations are necessitated by increasing attacks by the undercover LTTE cadres on the Security Forces. The LTTE leadership has long been complaining that the government through procrastinating the peace process is attempting to weaken the LTTE's struggle.

Absence of the war during the last four years itself was an achievement and with civilian life gradually returning to normal,the rationale of the war as an option to win minority rights had gradually been losing ground. But Prabhakaran now wants to reverse the situation and by doing so he is dragging the Tamil polity into another round of trauma as opportunity is knocking at the door for a better future and a better deal of power sharing.

This is where the US Ambassador Jeffrey Lunstead's remarks at the American Chamber of Commerce sounds thought provoking, especially for the apologists of LTTE violence.

The Ambassador questioned, "what kind of leaders block their people from realizing their most fundamental democratic aspirations?"

"What kind of leaders allow their people to continue to suffer from a lack of investment and industry?"

"What kind of leaders continue to pursue violence when the clear benefits of peace are obvious?"

Ambassador Lunstead made it blatantly clear, that the cost of a return to war would be high and the LTTE would face a "stronger, more capable and more determined Sri Lankan military".

"We want the cost of a return to war to be high," that speaks a lot of a would be US policy in Sri Lanka. But the Tigers don't seem to have heeded it. Next day the LTTE cadres blew up a Navy convoy in Chettikulam.

One salient point for the government however is that it can not fight terrorism in isolation. It needs to seek allies, including country's time tested allies, Pakistan, China and Israel - even though the JVP, which went on to lament the killing of Hamas spiritual leader Sheikh Ahmed Yassin and President Rajapakse himself, who is the Patron of Palestine Solidarity Movement, may have differences with the Jewish state, it has proved to be a reliable supplier, especially in the crucial hours of the separatist war, of sophisticated military hardware including Kafir Fighter Jets, Un Manned Aerial Vehicles and Dvora gunboats and specialist military training.

Such a friendship needs to be nurtured indeed.

After all, as for political brinkmanship, what matters more is pragmatism than an absolute loyalty to any particular political bloc.

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