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| Sunday, 15 January 2006 |
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Not to
square one yet
Between The Lines by Kuldip Nayar PAKISTAN spokesperson Tasneem Aslam must be having a great sense of humour. Otherwise, how can she say that the forecast about the peace progress between New Delhi and Islamabad was certainly not "bleak"? There is nothing else to suggest. The spokesperson says: Please do not read too much. What can one do when President General Pervez Musharraf expresses explicitly in an interview to an Indian TV channel that he feels disappointed because there is "no progress in the peace process." He even criticises the futility of a process which does not make any headway, although he says that India-Pakistan relations have never been so better before. His real regret _ he makes no secret about it _ is that no new ground has been covered since the beginning of talks. Back channels, according to him, have too elicited no response from India. Obviously, they are clogged by officials who stick to old thinking. Musharraf has no hesitation in saying that if Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh comes to Pakistan to watch cricket and there is no progress on the problem, meaning thereby Kashmir, then the meeting would be of little use. I know the military men are frank and come straight to the point. But the President has been in politics long enough to know what he should say in public. He should realise that here, unlike the battlefield, discretion is a better part of valour. Musharraf's defence is that he had no option except to go public when India had not reacted to his various proposals. Still there are better ways to make the Indians, the Pakistanis and the Kashmiris debate on his initiatives. Even the manner in which he has invited the Prime Minister to the cricket match 'Yes I invite him' does not befit the head of state. On the other hand, Manmohan Singh, reserved and taciturn, tells me during a conversation before Musharraf's interview was shown on TV that it is not possible for him to proceed further when cross-border terrorism has continued even after Musharraf's repeated promises to stop it. Musharraf says that he has done so much that no other person could have done it. But the fact remains that cross-border terrorism has not ended. The two interviews, one by Musharraf and the other by Manmohan Singh, took place within a span of five days. Both indicated more or less the same distance between the two governments as was before. This is despite people-to-people contact. However, there is no doubting about the absence of tension in both the countries. This is a plus if it stays that way. New Delhi admits that the number of infiltrators has gone down but it claims that the intermittent flow has not stopped. Musharraf's defence is how can he guarantee that not a single bullet shot will be fired. Nor can he say for certain that none will cross over. It is difficult to imagine Musharraf's helplessness knowing well how disciplined the Pakistani forces are and how tight is his control over men and the corps commanders. He has himself said in his interview that he would throw out anyone from the army if he disobeys him. Then how can infiltration take place without the army's connivance? Exasperated Manmohan Singh says that he does not know what is in the mind of Musharraf. On an Indian TV show, the number of people who ticked "no trust in Musharraf" is 80 per cent. New Delhi suspects that he has kept the machinery of training and arming terrorists in tact to enable to play the jehadi card whenever he thinks that India needs to be pressured. During my recent visit to Pakistan, I heard some voices confirming the existence of training camps. One young man described how the terrorists were boarding the army vehicles at Muzafferabad and how they were being transported to the Line of Control (LoC). One leading Pakistani newspaper has alleged that "the banned jehadi organisations have changed names and are still operating." If there was any credibility to Pakistan's claim that they had gone off the field, the paper says, "it was destroyed when the jehadis reemerged and took reconstruction of the earthquake hit regions of PoK and NWFP, incidentally the very areas where they had been known to train for covert jehad." The governments on both sides have their own versions and their own perception. Even the little common ground is shrinking bit by bit. Mind-set bureaucrats on both sides are having a field day. The spokespersons in the two countries are using such language and expression which do not reflect a civilised behaviour. The worst fallout is that practically every act of violence or sabotage in one country is attributed to the other. Intelligence agencies get the most blame. In India it is ISI and in Pakistan it is RAW. New Delhi also believes that the ISI is egging on the Bangladesh terrorists to foment trouble in India. The hand of Lashkar-e-Toiba in the Bangalore incident is seen as a confirmation of Pakistan establishment's support. The Indian press has quoted extensively from the 9/11 US Commission report to reiterate that Pakistan continues to send the jehadis across the border. The two countries may not yet be back to square one. Yet, the lack of agreement on anything, except on the itinerary of cricket matches, is pushing things to a point where the same old mood of estrangement is taking over. Peace process may be irreversible but if there is no progress on the confidence-building measures, the situation will become more uneasy and more uncertain as the days go by. Musharraf is talking about demilitarisation in three cities of Kashmir, to begin with. How does he expect Manmohan Singh to reciprocate when the latter says unequivocally that he cannot move forward until cross-border terrorism ends? The entire process is stuck at that. Is it possible for the two countries to set up a joint committee of eminent people, including retired police officers, to verify the allegations of cross-border terrorism and to suggest ways to stop it if the committee gets such an evidence? Subsequently, the Indian and Pakistani forces should jointly patrol the LoC to stop infiltration. Foreign secretaries of the two countries are discussing Kashmir at New Delhi, something which they should have done long ago. But they must keep in mind what Jawaharhal Nehru told Zulfikar Ali Bhutto: "Zulfi, I know that we must find a solution for Kashmir. But we have got caught in a situation which we cannot get out of without
causing damage to the systems and structures of our respective societies." |
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