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Bull's Eye by a Special Defence Correspondent

The much awaited news received banner headlines in local and foreign media on Thursday after the LTTE agreed to meet the Government in Geneva to talk about revising the Ceasefire Agreement of February 2002. The LTTE has named the decision, to 'smooth implementation of the CFA'.

Although the people anticipate peace, the stark reality is that it would not be achieved on a golden platter. The Government and the LTTE should accommodate other affected parties especially Tamil and Muslim political parties in the process and such parties too have to make sacrifices and contributions towards this effort as finding a solution to the conflict seems to be so difficult as differences and hostilities have been accumulated for decades.

Even the Karuna faction should have to be considered and consulted because such groups in fear of their survival under a peaceful solution would try to disturb any effort to the conflict.

The killing of 17 LTTE cadres by Karuna group in Wadumunai just after the LTTE agreement to meet the Government bears testimony to the objection by such groups to a peaceful settlement to the conflict between the two major parties. After all, until the LTTE gives up its demand for a separate state, it is hard to believe there would be an end to the conflict as no Government could accommodate separatism in the agenda towards peace.

History records that the LTTE's previous approaches towards peace ultimately ended at the doors of an Eelam State and people now well know that the LTTE's decision to talk to the Government on smooth implementation of the CFA would not mean that they are fully committed towards finding peace to the conflict but it could be another strategy to mark time and escape the present trend of pressure backed by international travel ban, warning by super powers with possible sanctions, Government's new orders to security forces is to act in self defence.

International pressure

After all, the LTTE has been earning more notoriety internationally for the killing of opponents including the Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar and preventing people from voting at the last Presidential elections. In this backdrop, the LTTE's decision could be a new escape route until they change world sympathy to their side.

The Tigers had used successive Governments to make their route to Eelam more clear and strengthen in the pretext of peace talks in the past and nobody should come to a conclusion without observing the development of the Geneva talks.

Similarly, there is an international pressure on them today. Visits by Heads of World Human Right bodies such as Amnesty International, UNICEF warning on child conscription, EU travel ban on Tigers and the USA's warning and its support to assist the government in making the security forces stronger gave a strong signal to the LTTE. Under such circumstances, the LTTE was compelled to change strategies from wagging its shadow war to the path of peace.

This Tiger tactics are now known world over and they can no longer be considered as the obedient boys just because they agreed to meet the Government.

Their stance does not show any commitment towards finding a lasting solution to the conflict. Tiger theoretician Anton Balasingham's statement well demonstrates the vagueness towards peace but their determination to gain more from the CFA.

Balasingham told Tamilnet that the talks expected to begin in mid February would be limited to the implementation of the truce which has come under increasing strain recently. Talks on further matters could only take place after the complete cessation of the Sri Lankan military's violent repression of the population in Government held areas of the Northeast.

His demand to stop violence by the security forces is absurd because the LTTE was the first party to start onslaught on security forces. On early occasions, the security forces were ordered to turn a blind eye to Tiger violence and armed forces were compelled to tolerate the Tiger hit and run violence but the orders of the new Government to act in self defence has disturbed the LTTE in their free run in the North and the East.

Therefore, when the LTTE stops violence from their side, the retaliation would automatically stop as there was no need to counter attack.

It is simple as that and the instances of CFA violence which is recorded by the SLMM bear evidence to the terror acts of the LTTE which outnumbered the CFA violations by the security forces.

So Balasingham should point fingers first towards him for putting the CFA in grave strain before he demands the Government to stop military offensives against the persons carrying arms.

Karuna factor

The threat from the Karuna faction is another challenge that the LTTE has been facing and the smooth implementation would definitely include eliminating Karuna. This demand is unfair for two major reasons.

One is that Karuna's is a faction of the LTTE and he split away from the main group after the CFA. The second is that the Karuna group launches attacks on the Tigers in the Tiger controlled areas where the security forces have no access to control them. Therefore the LTTE demand from the Government to deal with the Karuna group is impracticable.

It is also important to mention that nowhere in the world are there civilian forces that attack military forces. It is the LTTE cadres in civies that attack the security forces thereby insulting the ordinary people and abusing them in the name of Eelam. However, Government forces, this time with all their past experience and having well read the Tiger tactics did not fall prey to the LTTE traps.

After the last card they played failed, the Tigers had to accept the Government invitation to meet in Geneva. Balasingham told Tamilnet that his group decided to be flexible to give an opportunity for peace to the Rajapakse Government and changed to meet in the new venue instead Oslo. The Government was also flexible, and changed its stance, and agreed to suggest a venue in Europe instead of its first proposal of an Asian country.

The Tigers have now realized that it is not that easy to deal with a Government which has the majority support of people and the international community campaigning for peace. Amidst such pressure, the LTTE's decision is no strange but using this opportunity to handle them in such a manner is the biggest challenge before the Government as well as the other them parties including mediators and Co Chairs of the peace process.

What the LTTE has learnt this time is that its lackeys in the South have also failed in their protests and propaganda war as they were sufficiently countered by peace loving and moderate groups.

The organisations such as National Peace Council were openly challenged to go to the conflict areas and monitor whether the human rights of people suffering in the Tiger jaws are protected.

Their agendas were well exposed as they yell slogans sitting in safe areas. These propaganda machines which receive funds from the LTTE or their sympathizers have now taken the tiger by the tail so the duty of the people in the South is to understand this situation and reply them in a suitable manner.

It is high time that people understood the paper articles, peace protest (it is surprising to protest for peace), advertisements, and posters would not serve the purpose as the hidden agendas of those peace merchants are not really peace but to pocket enough for a cushy life in the name of peace.

The reorganisation of the Military Intelligence and their operations to combat LTTE terrorism is another factor for the LTTE to change their stance. They knew that their limited number of leaders would fall down in the possible counter attacks by the security forces.

Propaganda war fails

The LTTE did not intend to return to a full war for several reasons, and first among them is lack of cadres on the one hand and on the other hand, such a war would have meant loss millions of money they collect as tax especially on the A-9 road.

A full war would definitely destroy their infrastructure that was rehabilitated during the CFA and the pressure from the residents in the LTTE areas is another factor to avoid full war as they are no longer ready to bear the brunt of the LTTE. However, different tactics to dissipate the Government forces and win their demand would continue and the agreement to meet the Government would be considered as one such tactic.

According Balasingham, the Government should stop violence on the people. People is not elaborated and such words have been used in his speech tactically to mislead the international community.

The LTTE was the first party to start violence in order to provoke the security forces. The example should be set by Tigers and the forces would not do any harm to them until they engage in political activities in the Government controlled areas too. The patience of the security forces has been internationally acclaimed as the LTTE had violated the CFA over 5000 instances.

Search operations to continue

Search operations should continue despite any Tiger growl or the hooting of their lackeys in the city until the safety of people is ensured. Those Human Right groups and minor political parties should give a guarantee otherwise to the Government if they want the security forces and the police to stop search operations.

When the city is lacking protection people blame the Government but not the Human Right groups and those menial politicians, Besides, the duty of the Government is to protect the national security of the people rather than a few cliques of NGO operators who care only about feeding themselves.

What's the guarantee that they could give that no LTTE or city criminals would launch attacks on the people, security personnel, VIPs and economic centres? A condolence message and press release would not be able to compensate the damage to life and property therefore it is the bounden duty of the Government to take every possible measure to protect the people despite the minor objections by organised groups.

There is a new awakening in the security forces that the army would be a strong army if it is provided with new technology. Though the Tigers try to show their strength through sporadic violence, the LTTE was not successful this time to bargain as security forces were able to act on time.

Therefore while the Government continuing the talks to revise the CFA, the security forces should maintain their morale, strategies and fire power afresh to face any imminent threat.

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