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by Maqbool Ahmad Bhatty

The outlook for the future cannot be considered bright given the geopolitical global trends since the start of the century and millennium. The way global affairs have been managed over the past five years justifies fears of continuing crises in nearly all spheres of human life.

The end of the Cold War in 1989 had raised hopes that with the US now the only superpower, some of the idealism that lay behind the establishment of the UN might be revived. Though the elder George Bush had spoken about the quest of a New World Order in 1990, as he prepared a global coalition to respond to the aggression by Saddam Hussein against Kuwait, the follow-up to the Gulf War of 1991 took the form of stationing US forces in the Gulf region, both to establish US hegemony over the main source of energy and ensure the regional domination of Israel.

The initiative to resolve the Palestinian problem was not pursued. Instead, neo-conservatives advocated a new order based on military power.

The election of Bill Clinton resulted in a shift from foreign policy to tackling the domestic agenda, as the economy had been neglected during Republican party's rule. A recession had set in. Clinton's victory enabled effective reforms to revitalize the economy. Clinton revived the US tradition of strengthening global institutions and countering aggressive tendencies such as those that emerged in Yugoslavia where Serbian chauvinism sparked conflicts in Croatia and Bosnia.

Europe failed to restore peace and order and Clinton used the influence and military reach of the US to mobilize the international machinery to curb Serbian violence. He revived efforts to bring peace to Palestine, and brought the US into the mainstream on such global issues as the environment and punishment of war crimes by states.

By the time Clinton completed his two terms, the US economy had been revived and the outlook for the new century looked promising.

Significant difference

However, a disputed election brought a leadership to the White House that has made a significant difference to the direction in which the world was moving. Leading intellectual Noam Chomsky stated in an interview that the stamp of US leadership under George W. Bush has largely shaped the outlook both in key issues of war and peace in the 21st century.

The concept of a New American Century based on US military and technical supremacy resulted in the ideals of equity and social justice being pushed into the background, especially after the terrorist attacks of 9/11. The latter reflected the despair of significant elements among the deprived and neglected people of the developing world.

The outlook for 2006 has to be determined by how matters stood at the close of the previous year and the changes hovering on the horizon. If 2005 could not be described as a happy year, it is necessary to identify the causes of this disappointment and to look for signs of remedial measures.

President George W. Bush has pursued a goal of imprinting the stamp of the US on the world in a manner that has resulted in the spread of death, destruction and misery. Besides resort to war through his doctrine of pre-emption, he has also undermined the role of the United Nations and failed to provide leadership to address the real global challenges such as threats to the environment, poverty and disease.

Peaceful goals, such as UN reform, trade liberalization and environmental initiatives were not achieved during his first term - although the rest of the world community showed awareness of the real challenges.

The gap between the rich and the poor and among nations grew. The 60th anniversary of the UN was preceded by a special summit that reviewed progress on millennium development goals, notably that of reducing global poverty.

The special summit identified target shortfalls in fighting disease and poverty and reminded leaders of the developed world to devote greater efforts and resources to achieving progress. However, any meaningful reform in the setup of the UN could not be achieved, and it emerged that the real emphasis should have been placed on making the organization more effective rather than on accommodating the ambitions of the powers.

The world was afflicted by some of the worst natural disasters in recent history, the vast destruction and death toll of over 250,000 people caused by the December 26, 2004, tsunami becoming apparent in 2005.

Ten months later, a devastating earthquake in which over 80,000 died and nearly four million were rendered homeless, struck northern Pakistan and Azad Kashmir. While both disasters drew global sympathy and assistance, it became evident that the world community was poorly organized to deal with natural calamities on this scale, an observation confirmed by the inadequate response to destruction wreaked by successive hurricanes in the US.

Interestingly, exposure to death and destruction at home made the American people more intensely aware of the havoc and suffering wrought by war, and rapidly strengthened the anti-war sentiment among the American people. For the first time, the percentage of those Americans who disapproved of the war against Iraq rose higher than those who had opposed the war in Vietnam.

Without doubt, many valuable lessons were learnt during 2005 and initiatives were reinforced to achieve solutions of major political disputes, such as those in Palestine and Kashmir. The sentiments of the majority of poorer nations regarding reforms in the world economic order became stronger as was evident from the proceedings of the WTO conference in Hong Kong at the close of 2005.

The outlook turned bleak as 2006 approached. India's stance hardened, both on Kashmir, and in bilateral terms. As the Pakistan government cracked down on those blowing up gas installations, roads and bridges in Balochistan, India issued a statement that clearly constituted interference in Pakistan's internal affairs.

When the Pakistan government protested, the Indian foreign ministry reiterated its stance. This and the hardened Indian stance on Kashmir appeared to darken the prospects for the composite dialogue in South Asia.

Other year-end developments also pointed towards a more difficult year ahead. Despite the completion of the electoral process in Iraq, with a fairly high turnout in the Kurdish and Shia areas and with Sunnis also participating in large numbers to register their reservations, the insurgency became more intense as US casualties escalated.

With his popularity going down over the war in Iraq, President Bush is clearly hoping to entrust more of the responsibility of law and order to the Iraqi police and troops who have been under training for more than two years. However, prospects for achieving this goal have receded. Several elements have contributed to this trend.

The year 2005, which saw the start of Bush's second term, began with some signs of initiatives to improve his image, especially in seeking conciliation with Europe and addressing some concerns of the developing countries.

However, as the year proceeded, his goals of cornering, even changing, regimes considered hostile were revived as evident from policies towards Syria and Iran. The manner in which military and economic linkages were developed with new strategic ally India made New Delhi adopt the same arrogant stance in South Asia. Moves to encircle China continued.

The commencement of 2006 has not been accompanied by trends or developments that might raise expectations for a more peaceful world in which long-festering disputes might be resolved, and the focus of the global community shift to the real problems of mankind.

A high proportion of state resources will continue to be spent on arms. The multilateral organizations set up in the mid-20th century to promote economic and social development will remain marginalized and civilizational conflict, justified on the basis of terrorism, will be pursued.

Internal tensions

Coming to our own region, it is likely to remain in the arc of crisis. The US, despite setbacks in Iraq and Afghanistan, will continue to be guided by the Bush doctrine. It appears likely that internal tensions, such as those over water management, and political and economic dissatisfaction in the smaller provinces of Pakistan, will add to our national challenges to make 2006 an even tougher year for the country.

The geopolitical outlook cannot be considered promising as conflict and confrontation could spread to new areas while progress towards resolving older conflicts, such as those in Palestine and Kashmir, is unlikely.

South Asia will have to deal with an India that has been boosted by its alliance with the US. In addition, other states of this impoverished region face the grim prospect of internal tensions and discontent. Sri Lanka may witness a rekindling of the Tamil insurgency, Bangladesh has been experiencing terrorism as well as polarization between the major parties.

Maoist opposition is again resurgent in Nepal, and poverty within the disadvantaged half of the Indian population may also revitalize leftist forces in India.

It will take wisdom and foresight on a global scale as well as good fortune to turn away mankind from strife and conflicts to resolving issues peacefully. Our region appears to be especially vulnerable.

The Pakistani leadership will face multiple challenges of unprecedented complexity. Our leadership claims to be dedicated to making Pakistan an

Asian tiger, but needs stronger nerves, deeper faith, and better luck than most for converting the dream of greatest happiness of the greatest number into a reality.

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