Tigers shift strategy, pledge to honour truce, period

War and Peace : The Defence Diary by Ranga Jayasuriya

On Friday morning, an Israeli built Kafir fighter jet took off on a training session from the AirForce base in Katunayake. The fighter jet was practising a supersonic flying.

As the jet broke the sound barrier, it caused sonic booms making a big noise similar to loud blasts, which was heard in the vicinity of Wattala, close to Pamunugama where three sea Tigers were caught with floating bombs and diving kits after an explosion from the sea. Loud sounds caused panic as radio stations beamed the reports of an underwater blast, cell phones were jammed as panicked public sought updates of the explosion.

The Airforce sent a helicopter on a reconnaissance mission over the sea off Negambo. But it could not locate any strange occurrence. Then the Airforce operation room notified the training exercise of the Kafir fight jet and concluded that the sound of the blast was caused by the sonic boom. Panic subsided as the true version of the event unfolded, but perhaps to ignite in a day or two over a hoax or real threat.

This anecdote is suggestive of the mind-set of a entire nation, living in a growing sense of uncertainty since the Tiger chieftain in the Wanni jungles decided on a surge of violence.

Especially since his political commissar S. P. Thamilselvan warned of abundance of suicide bombers in case the country reverts to a full scale war.

But, going by the recent announcement by the Tigers to adhere to the ceasefire agreement, as conveyed to the Norwegians in the LTTE's response to five queries submitted to them by the peace facilitators, the Tigers seemed to have decided to restrain themselves, but only after blowing up a bus full of passengers in Kebithigollewa.

Early pronouncement

The early pronouncement by the LTTE leadership and training of civilians suggested an imminent full scale war. The Tigers could have well used the two days of three-pronged assault by the security forces on some of their key targets as an excuse for the exit from the peace process. Even the government's Peace Secretariat, only a few days ago said the LTTE is seeking an exit from the peace process.

But the Tiger leadership has decided otherwise. Thamilselvan told Norwegian Ambassador Hans Brattskar that the Tigers would adhere to the ceasefire agreement. The Norwegian peace facilitators have now announced the responses to the five queries submitted to the two parties in the aftermath of the collapse of the Oslo talks.

The Norwegians asked the two parties:

1. whether they stand committed to the Ceasefire Agreement (CFA) of February 22, 2002?

2. Do the parties want the continued existence and operation of the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission as a mission coordinated, facilitated and led by the Royal Norwegian Government with diplomatic immunity to ensure its impartial operation?

3. Are the parties able to provide full security guarantees for all monitors, employees and physical assets of the SLMM in all situations, in accordance with CFA Article 3.9?

4. Will the parties accept amendments to CFA Article 3.5 to enable the continued functioning of the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission at its current operational levels and with the necessary security guarantees?

5. In the event amendments to Article 3.5 are made, will the parties provide full security guarantees for current SLMM personnel and assets during a six-month transition phase until an amended solution has been identified, decided and fully implemented?

The Norwegian peace facilitators on Friday that while the government has affirmative answers to all five questions, the Tigers have responded positively to questions 1, 3 and 4.

As regards question 2 and 5, the Tigers are insisting on the replacement of the truce monitors from EU countries (Denmark, Finland, and Sweden) and ruled out a six-month transitional period for the replacement, demanding a "shorter transitional phase".

The government on the same day rejected the rationale behind the LTTE demand for the removal of the EU nationals from the SLMM and also added as it was informed the LTTE's three affirmative responses are not as unconditional as stated in the media statement by the Norwegian peace facilitators.

The government ruled out any unilateral changes in the composition of the SLMM by the LTTE, stressing any change needs its consent.

The government on its part-expressed "full confidence" in the SLMM and urged the truce monitors to continue their activities despite the "unreasonable" stance by the LTTE.

'Full confidence'

The government's vote of confidence itself is interesting, for the fact that it was only three weeks ago it saw a "distinguished bias" of the SLMM against the GOSL.

Norwegians will meet other Nordic countries on June 29 to discuss the future role and security of the SLMM.

The responses by the LTTE, though mirrors its trademark intransigence, with regard to the insistence on the replacement of EU monitors, also put the fears on hold that it would abrogate the truce agreement.

Then, one would ponder why the Tigers had not declared a full scale war, especially after the two days of three pronged attack by the security forces. Perhaps the simplest answer is even the LTTE leadership is aware that a full scale war would be a risky gamble. Chances are extremely high that such a war would be prolonged, and in short it would never be a sharp and short war as in the case of unceasing wave III which overran the Elephant Pass military garrison.

The deployment of a new set of weapon systems, hitherto unseen or not fully utilised so far - most of them were procured by the security forces in the aftermath of EPS debacle- mean heavy human casualties.

In the case of a full scale of war, it is hard to expect that new social infrastructures in the North-East put up during the period of ceasefire would be spared for the very fact that most social infrastructure are of dual use and help LTTE's military mechanism.

This would eliminate any tangible achievements of the LTTE during the ceasefire and deny the LTTE of any tactical use of these facilities. At the same time, the fact that the LTTE leadership announced its adherence to the ceasefire agreement is no reason to believe that the Tigers would live up to the obligations of the ceasefire agreement.

The LTTE through the use of its sleeping cadres and civilian militia in the government controlled area and would continue with hit and run attacks and claymore explosions against the security forces. Hit and run attacks

This means the low intensify war in the North-East would continue unabated. On Wednesday, LTTE cadres ambushed an army road patrol in Point Pedro, wounding three soldiers. Two of them later succumbed to injuries at the Palali Military Hospital.

On Monday, the LTTE shelled Nagar Kovil Forward Defence line, which drew a retaliation by the army which lasted nearly 30 minutes. Around ten artillery shells were fired. One exploded near a group of soldiers returning from leave. Two soldiers received minor injuries.

At least, for the time being, Tigers had to rely on civilians trained as its civil militia, known as Makkal Padai. Three-thousand civilians from the Jaffna peninsula have been trained in basic warfare in training camps and Palai and Kilinochchi. However, according to intelligence sources, only 800 are active, the rest having decided to take a low key role.

According to confirmed intelligence reports, these members are generally from the poorest groups are paid for the successful attacks on the security forces.

According to conventional rates, a successful claymore blast is rewarded with Rs. 5,000, while a killing of a person in the hit list would carry Rs. 20,000. The Makkal Padai acts in collusion with sleeping LTTE cadres, but their training, limited to a ten-day training in basics of weapon handling, is rudimentary and limit their usefulness in attacks against security forces.

Claymore blasts

But, these men are proved to be useful for the LTTE in its strategy in keeping on pressuring the government through violence. However, the decline in fatalities in claymore blasts and ambushes and increasing recoveries of explosives, weapons and ammunition suggest that in the face of counter measures adopted by the security forces, the Makkal Padei finds it difficult to carry out its task.

The main objective of the claymore attacks on the security forces is to limit its mobility and confined the forces in to a limited area. This was how the Tigers gradually took control of Jaffna in the mid 80s.

The LTTE's announcement of adherence to the ceasefire should not be a reason to believe that Makkal Padai would restrain themselves. Only two weeks ago it pledged to intensify attacks. But the fact that the government has shown political will to respond decisively for serious attacks on the security forces or civilians, as indicated by the green light for the three pronged attack in the aftermath of Kebithigollewa blast, would discourage the LTTE from going for big targets, either itself or through Makkal Padei.

The government's shown political will to order retaliatory attacks on the identified LTTE targets would itself act as an deferent against the LTTE going for big targets. In the past three occasions when the Tigers went for high profile targets it had been retaliated with a coordinated land, air and sea attacks.

Surprise attack

But, the possibility of the Tigers going for a surprise attack is always there. The arrest of six LTTE cadres who were arrested in Pamunugama last week aborted a large scale attack by the Tigers, thanks to rough sea and enhanced security.

The sea tiger arrested in Thalawila, stranded in rough sea had 80 kg of C 4 explosives. These men are suspected to be on a mission to blow up a vessel transporting two MI 17 passenger helicopters after overhaul repairs in Ukraine. The ship arrived in the Colombo harbour last Sunday, a day after the arrest of four suspects, who attempted to commit suicide swallowing cyanide, but later declared out of danger upon admission to the Negambo hospital.

The Navy also suspects the arrested LTTE men were on a mission to target Navy Dovra Fast Attack craft which are on routine patrol on the North Western waters.

For the record, it must be noted that the LTTE was tight-lipped for the past two weeks over its response to the five questions by the Norwegian peace facilitators. The LTTE's continuing adherence to the CFA was communicated to the Norwegians only a couple of days after its failed mission in the seas off Pamunugama. One could suggest a hidden link!

Full scale war

Whether or not the Tigers declare a full scale war in the near future, the security forces have been warned by the well substantiated intelligence sources that there is a military build up in the Punaryn. Several pieces of artillery have been positioned in Punaryn.

Intelligence reports last week warned that the Tigers could attempt a sea borne attack through the lagoon from Kalmunai point in the LTTE held territory to Jaffna via the Mandathivu Islands. In case of such an assault on security forces in Jaffna, the Tigers could use its under cover cadres and civilian militia to block supply routes by carrying out attacks on the security forces convoys. This has been identified as a possible strategy by the LTTE as any attempt to overrun well fortified security forces FDL in Muhamalai would be a costly business.

Meanwhile, troops in Welioya had monitored either landing or the take off of two objects suspected to be sea planes on the Nayaru lagoon inside the Tiger territory. The Defence Ministry has been informed of the sighting. But, the AirForce later inquired into the sighting of the suspected LTTE sea planes.

A senior AirForce officer said that having checked with "available resources", the AirForce could not find any evidence to prove a movement of a suspected sea plane. After the carnage at Kebithigollewa and abortive mission in the seas off Pamunugama, last week saw a lull in the security situation, though it was interrupted by sporadic claymore blasts and small arms fire. But, No one could exactly say whether this is a calm before a storm or a storm that is gradually subsiding.