Maybe not war but it's chaos

by Kumar David

To simple laymen like you and me it is now apparent that the tactic adopted by both belligerents is not to procedurally or formally abrogate the ceasefire for as long as possible and in the meantime to engage in bloody carnage to achieve partisan ends. This way, they avoid international opprobrium, to which both have become unexpectedly sensitive these days and the civilian population in the meantime is abducted, beheaded or butchered.

This is why in the last several weeks we have seen parts of the country spiral into a state of chaotic anarchy while the ceasefire, we are told, still holds - apparently both sides love peace passionately.

What's the difference between declared war and de facto anarchy? It is said that "a rose by any other name would smell as sweet"; a keen reader may be able to come up with smart antonyms for 'rose' and 'sweet', I couldn't hit on a pair that clicked.

A letter from the North-East

The demonic deed at Kebithigollewa, the massacre at Gomarankadawela and Welikanda, all allegedly by the LTTE, and the cold blooded shooting of Tamil youth at Trincomalee beach and the slaughter of civilians at Kayts and in and around the Pesalai church, all allegedly by GoSL personnel, and numerous similar high profile incidents have been much publicised.

What is not so well known is the chilling terror of daily life in the affected areas. Let me therefore, furnish you with portions a letter from the North-East - it is unwise to identify the writer these days other than to say for the record that the person is very reliable and happens to be a Tamil. The extracts are a little extended but to read it at first-hand is better than an artificial summary from me.

"People are now living in fear more than ever before. This sense of fear is much worse than when last December. There is a lot of killing going on. Army personnel are being subjected to grenade and mine attacks and allegedly-LTTE cadres are killing their opponents. Tit-for-tat killing of LTTers and ordinary civilians is equally prevalent. Then there is the phenomenon of unidentified hooded people, allegedly from the forces, coming at night in white vans to homes and abducting and killing the men. This has driven many businessmen out of Vavuniya, Batticaloa and Jaffna.

Many youngsters are being sent out of Tamil areas by their parents for fear that they may be the next victim of State terror or be abducted by militants." "The government had stopped cement and steel passing through Wanni. This means the construction industry is now brought to a halt in the North.

There is a shortage of diesel, petrol and kerosene oil. These affect the farmers. All shops are closed by 5 pm as there are hardly any customers to serve; hardly anyone on the roads after 6 pm, whole economic and social life is brought to a standstill".

"Last December there was labour demand in the Northeast generating incomes for the people. Now, the pressure on labour demand is downward creating unemployment both in the retail sector and the construction sector. The evolving conditions are encouraging people to join the LTTE".

Form all reports neither GoSL nor the LTTE are really in control of the ground situation in most of the North and East - that is outside the LTTE controlled portion of the Vanni which is quiescent.

Furthermore, in the view of most observers, GoSL seems not to be in control of its own military-police apparatus. What is really nerve-jangling is that there is little prospect of this breakdown being arrested anytime soon; the North and East of the country is becoming a disorderly blackhole and not much information about the true ground situation is leaking out. The situation is more serious than Colombo seems to recognise; this is anarchy spreading in dictionary purity.

Could it get worse?

Those who believe that the peace process has run its course and that the two parties are slowly but surely edging towards war have only half the story. The more frightening part of the story is that instead of, or for an extended duration prior to a declared conventional war, there will be period of chaos and generalised social breakdown. This is where things are right now.

One development that could accelerate the process on a national scale is if the LTTE decides to bring pain into the heart of Colombo in retaliation for attacks on Tamils in the North and East or for air or artillery offensives on its positions.

It is obvious that the LTTE is frustrated and feels boxed-in because moves towards an interim or long term solution, or towards implementing Geneva-1 in respect of neutralising the activities of the Karuna forces, are all at a standstill.

The history of the Tigers shows that daring acts are entirely possible, and on this occasion the timing may depend on when a case can be made to international observers that they are responding to provocative attacks, not initiating hostilities. Given the continuous stream of allegations and counter allegations from both sides, and given that for decade both sides have lied through their teeth, uncertainty is very likely already growing in the minds of outside observers.

Human rights groups and websites are vocal that the "international community" (sic), should "engage" (sic), with GoSL and the LTTE to knock some sense into their sclerotic skulls. Commentators in the local media plead that the government should respond to external demands for a settlement to the Tamil governance problem or face a tightening of the purse strings.