Sri Lanka:
Strategic Potential on Hold
Sri Lanka, situated just offshore of southeastern India?s Tamil Nadu
state near the confluence of the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and Indian
Ocean, has been wracked by ethnic violence for more than 20 years. The
civil war between the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam and the Sri
Lankan government, which continues unabated, has had a paralyzing effect
on the island nation. The minority Tamils seek to secede from the
majority-Sinhalese nation.
Just south of Sri Lanka?s territorial waters are major international
shipping routes connecting Southeast Asia with the Middle East. Among
other shipping, oil tankers run from Persian Gulf terminals to buyers in
Asia via the Indian Ocean. Peace in Sri Lanka would create many
investment opportunities taking advantage of Sri Lanka?s valuable
location. Disturbingly for Sri Lanka, the Tigers? naval capability has
expanded to the extent that the group now demands international
recognition for the ?Sea Tigers? on par with that of the Sri Lankan
Navy. The Sea Tigers claim to have sunk more than 30 Sri Lankan naval
vessels.
Sri Lanka?s location places it close to numerous geopolitical hot
spots. India?s stature and influence in the international system
continues to grow, while nearby Pakistan and Bangladesh battle Islamist
militancy. The United States military understands the utility of Sri
Lanka?s proximity to these countries. In 2002, Washington and Colombo
signed a broad defense agreement under which Sri Lanka allowed U.S.
ships to dock and refuel in domestic ports in exchange for U.S.
military training and equipment. U.S. warships involved in Afghan
operations, such as the USS Sides, used the port of Colombo under the
deal.
The port of Trincomalee, on the northeastern coast of Sri Lanka, also
stands out as strategically significant.
In recent weeks, the port town saw widespread attacks and retaliation
between the Tigers and Sri Lankan forces. If peace were somehow
established, Trincomalee would certainly rank on the U.S. military?s
wish list, being one of the deepest natural ports in the world. While
Sri Lanka extracts some geopolitical utility from its location, much
more could be achieved if a political resolution between the Tamils and
the Sri Lankan government were not so inconceivable.
Sri Lanka?s vast neighbor, India, has a vocal and electorally
important ethnic Tamil constituency that sympathizes with the Tigers?
cause.
While India can never be seen as publicly sympathetic to militant
group responsible for the assassination of former Indian Prime Minister
Rajiv Gandhi, domestic politics force New Delhi to avoid being seen as
pro-Sinhalese (and thus anti-Tamil). The Indians also have an interest
in keeping Sri Lanka in a state of contained chaos so long as an
untenable refugee crisis does not overwhelm India.
China and Pakistan, meanwhile, have recognized the utility of
assisting the Sri Lankan government in its fight with the Tigers as a
tool to edge their way into India?s backyard.
The Tigers have not been shy against retaliating against outside
interference, as the recent attack against the Pakistani ambassador to
Sri Lanka showed.
Ultimately, Sri Lanka can extract little geopolitical or commercial
advantage from its strategic location unless it strikes a definitive
deal with its Tamil minority.
As the violence of recent weeks demonstrates, however, the world will
have to wait for such an outcome. |