India on the horns of a dilemma

By K. Godage

With hostilities breaking out a fresh India can no longer be a passive onlooker for her interests are involved. The flood of refugees in their hundreds are fleeing to Tamil Nadu and this has not only created a humanitarian problem but also a political problem for Delhi because the political parties in Tamil Nadu are competing with each other to champion the cause of the Tamil citizens of Lanka and in the process putting pressure on the central government in Delhi. Some influential political parties are accusing the Central government of not being concerned about the plight of "their Tamil brothers" in Sri Lanka. These elements are seeking to revive Tamil nationalism of the 60s when they sought to establish a separate Tamil State. We must ensure that the hundreds of refugees would not grow into thousands for that would result in all political parties in Tamil Nadu closing ranks and demanding military intervention. That could turn out to be disastrous for this country.

LTTE sympathizers

The sympathizers of the LTTE are indeed busy in Tamil Nadu whipping up hatred against the Government which is being described as a Sinhala chauvinist anti-Tamil government which is seeking to annihilate the Tamil people of Sri Lanka. The Tamil Nadu Assembly on 17 August adopted a strongly worded resolution condemning the government of Sri Lanka over the bombing of what was alleged to be an LTTE child soldier training camp and what they alleged was an orphanage.

The government responded as follows: "the attention of the Government has been drawn to the Resolution pertaining to Sri Lanka adopted by the State Assembly of Tamil Nadu on 17th August 2006. For purpose of record, we wish to make it clear that the Resolution contains assertions based on reports which have been totally fabricated.

The truth of the matter is that the structure referred to in the State Assembly Resolution was not an orphanage as claimed by the LTTE, but a strategically located long standing LTTE training camp, from which that organization used to induct cadres for its recent attacks against the security forces and the positions established by the cease fire in the Jaffna peninsula.

Reliable evidence

Firm and reliable evidence in the form of video footage through aerial reconnaissance, establishing the presence of armed personnel and the imparting of combat training at this location, has already been shared by the Government on 16th August with the Diplomatic Community and the media in Sri Lanka. The LTTE has a known track record of recruiting underage combatants and some of them could have perhaps been present, at the time of the sortie by the Air Force".

Chief Minister Karunanidhi, the man who in 1989 called for Czechoslovak type two state solution to our conflict has changed, he has indeed come a long way from then, his support for the LTTE lost him the elections in 1992 when his DMK obtained only 02 seats and were wiped out. He appears to have learnt a bitter lesson. On19th August in reply to the motion he advocated moderation and stated that though they have strong feelings on this matter it is best left to the Center to sort it out and that they in Tamil Nadu may be more a liability to the center than an asset if the sought to get involved. It is relevant here to recall that when I, (in an article I wrote immediately after Karunanidhi won the state election) suggested to government that we reach out to Karunanidhi since he has more influence over the LTTE than Norway, some ignorant pseudo nationalists, whose guilt perhaps has got the better of their judgment, living abroad in safety, sent me over fifty abusive Emails, I do hope that they will now learn not to let their emotions prevail over good sense.

Karunanidhi appears to have become a mature politician at 82, better late than never I suppose. Karunanidhi has recalled the time when Rajiv Gandhi had wanted him, Murasoli Maran and Gopalasamy alias Vaiko to visit Sri Lanka and meet Prabhakaran and settle this issue and of how Vaiko had without informing Karunanidhi gone illegally to meet Prabhakaran. Vaiko meanwhile in a speech described as "highly provocative and dangerous" called Karunanidhi a liar and praised Prabhakaran the principal accused in the Rajiv Gandhi assassination. Some statements of Vaiko promoting the revival of the Tamil nationalism of the 1960s are being considered as seditious and the Congress Party in TN is calling for his arrest.

Government's position

Let us now examine the government's position as stated by the President, which was essentially a message of peace; when he met the Co-Chairs this week, he stated, and I quote from the text of the Press Release:

"President Mahinda Rajapaksa at a meeting with Donor Co-Chair representatives yesterday said the Government will seriously consider any initiative 'incorporating a clear commitment to a comprehensive and verifiable Cessation of Hostilities by the LTTE Leader. At the meeting held at President's House the President stressed 'such a Cessation of Hostilities should include modalities to ensure that the Sampur area does not pose a military threat to the Trincomalee Harbour and its environs due to the LTTE military presence in Sampur violating the CFA.' Assuring the diplomats the Government was still open for a peaceful solution to the North East issue, President Rajapaksa also asserted that his Government was awaiting the LTTE to return to talks on the ceasefire and substantive matters".

"At this meeting attended by representatives of the US, the EU, Norway and Japan, President Rajapaksa briefed that the action by the Security Forces were clearly aimed at preventing or responding to the LTTE offensive and that the Government did not initiate any offensive operations in breach of the ceasefire.

The President also reaffirmed the Government's continuing commitment to the ceasefire."

Considering the LTTE's record of non-compliance with the Norwegian crafted CFA, the President stated that he would seriously consider any initiative incorporating a clear commitment to a comprehensive and verifiable Cessation of Hostilities by the LTTE Leader". We could ask for no more no less.

The government has only retaliated in defence after the LTTE continued to kill with impunity not only the Foreign Minister but also the third in command of the Army and almost killed the Army Commander himself, not to forget the fact that they sought to sink two troop carriers, had they succeeded they would have killed over one thousand six hundred of our servicemen; they also sort to sink two ships in the port of Colombo.

Claymore mines

They were 'taking out' soldiers and other servicemen on a daily basis with claymore mines. During the previous UNP administration they killed of over 40 members of Long Range Reconnaissance Petrol and of Military Intelligence, with impunity. After such a horrendous record no self-respecting government could be without retaliating. If the government allowed the LTTE to get away without responding the people would have revolted, The President exercised unbelievable patience, patience which no other head of state anywhere in the world would have exercised. He had to respond to the threat posed by the LTTE to the security and the integrity of the country.

Despite the so-called peace marches of so-called peaceniks and the political differences with the UNP there is no doubt that the country is behind the President.

There are certain risks any government would have to face when dealing militarily with a murderous terrorist organization such as the LTTE; if the war goes badly for them there is the definite possibility that they would in desperation pursue a scorched earth policy and also attack some strategic installations seeking to cripple the country or to force a cessation of hostilities; but such an act would not give the government space to negotiate but would result in a full scale mobilization and a war to a finish, there would be no room for any self respecting government of a sovereign country to compromise for that would mean capitulation. Such an escalation or conflagration would be tragic for the unfortunate Tamil civilians who have suffered over the last twenty years; this must be avoided if ever possible.

An escalation of the conflict would also be inimical to India's interests and India would be forced to intervene; In keeping with India's new energy security policy she would need to ensure that the Oil Tank farm, now leased to the IOC is protected; this would entail a presence in Trincomalee.

Attack

Any attack on the Tank farm would be construed as an attack on India and that would not be condoned. The question that then arises is what form would such an intervention take? And what would be its objective?

It cannot be only to protect the Oil Tanks; it would have to be a total involvement. In such an event they would have to deal with Prabhakaran and how would they do that as he is a wanted felon in India.

India the dominant power in the region which aspires to a permanent seat on the Security Council has failed to demonstrate leadership in the region; India needs to re evaluate and review its policy towards this country.

India cannot now take a hands-off policy towards this country for the ground situation has changed and India's interests are at stake. India cannot any longer dwell in the past and cite what happened in 1991 as an excuse to stay out; that was 15 years ago.

Review

They would by now have assessed what went wrong then and should take account of that in the review of their policy; the world has changed and India is a nuclear power and has a role on the world stage.

I wish to state without fear of contradiction that had India played an active diplomatic role and joined the Co-Chairs or the 'peace support group' instead of contracting out her role to the Norwegians, this problem would have been solved to everyone satisfaction, instead it has only become almost intractable. There is still space for India to bring the parties to the negotiating table and play a role in arriving at a solution based on their oft quoted "India supports the process of seeking a negotiated settlement acceptable to all sections of Sri Lanka society within the framework of a united Sri Lanka and consistent with democracy, pluralism, and respect for individual rights... India maintains an abiding interest in the security of Sri Lanka and remains committed to its unity, sovereignty and territorial integrity"; India must play its legitimate role, nothing exposes the failure of Indian leadership than the fact that she has failed to settle this problem in Sri Lanka.