Pakistan Terrorism, Sri Lanka Tamil Conflict - India needs full time foreign minister

by Off Stumped

In stark contrast to the future of India's immediate neighbourhood looks bleak unless India demonstrates leadership in dealing with the problems of its neighbours.

First the never ending spiral of violence in Sri Lanka which is now threatening to acquire political overtones in India with the Vallipunam air raid by the Sri Lankan Military which targeted an orphanage hosting a leadership and first aid training workshop for school girls of Mullaitivu and Killinochchi at 7 a.m. on 14th August 2006. While the facts of the incident continue to be debated, M. Karunanidhi, the Chief Minister of the Indian State of Tamil Nadu, has plunged his state government into the conflict with the state assembly unanimously condemning the action of the Lankan government in the strongest possible terms. Describing the air raid as 'barbaric, uncivilised and inhuman' the state assembly observed a two minutes silence in honour of the victims. That matters have to come pass to this extent is a reflection of the lack of Indian Leadership in resolving this conflict.

Since the ouster of Natwar Singh in the wake of the Iraq Oil for Food Volcker Report allegations, India has not had a full time Foreign Minister. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh acutely aware of the Anti-American leanings of the Natwar Singh lead cabal that was out to hijack Indian Foreign Policy to the stone age and spike the Indo-US Nuclear deal, had taken on the External Affairs Portfolio. With the domestic political debate on the Indo-US Nuke deal having run its logical course, its time Manmohan Singh paid attention to the acute need for a full time Foreign Minister.

Failure of leadership

Nothing exemplifies the failure of Indian Leadership in the sub-continent than the failure to resolve the Sri Lankan Tamil conflict. The baggage of past mistakes and the Rajiv Gandhi assassination will have to be shed to chart a new bold path in bringing together the warring ethnic groups of the Island Nation.

It is in India's self interest to have this issue resolved at the earliest. It will require a leap of faith on the part of the Tamil's and the Sinhalese to agree to a Federal Model of devolution of powers along the lines of the Indian Constitution. What is needed is an Indian Foreign Minister with the mission and vision to accomplish this task. Time is of the essence, given the political overtones the issue is acquiring in India.

While the DMK lead Tamil Nadu state government must be restrained from adding further fuel to this fire, the recent bombing attempt on the Pakistan High Commissioner in Sri Lanka is an early warning for India to get its act right before a Muslim angle further muddies the waters in the Island Nation.

Speaking of Pakistan, the acute need for a full time Indian Foreign Minister is being felt ever more as the world debates if Pakistan is a friend or foe in the war on terrorism. In an op-ed piece in the New York Times on sunday, former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State and Colin Powell's confidante, Richard Armitage called upon the Bush Administration to not get frustrated by the slow progress by Pakistan in dealing with terrorism, while urging President Bush to further strengthen Musharraf. In sharp contrast in the Boston Globe, Steven N. Simon who is the Hasib J. Sabbagh senior fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations cautioned the Bush Administration on treating the "What after Musharraf" question as a hypothetical one.

Observing that "*No one is really sure about the loyalty of junior officers in the army, and there is no reason to believe they are any more immune to the lure of religious radicalism than civilians their age *", Steven Simon calls on the Bush Administration to apply more pressure on the Musharraf regime to share power.

Michael Krepon South Asia security analyst and President Emeritus of the Henry L Stimson Centre, writing in the YaleGlobal, summed it up best on India's role. Michael Krepon while hypothesizing on a potential India Pakistan Military Conflict in the wake of horrific acts of terror against India, observed that a disproportionate share of the burden to prevent such a conflict rested on India through heightened domestic security and renewed diplomacy.

Absence of a multi-pronged strategy

The Manmohan Singh lead Congress UPA Government has been found seriously wanting on both fronts.

The absence of a multi-pronged strategy to tackle terrorism through a wholistic approach to Security has been reflected in the spate of terror incidents starting with last year's New Delhi bomb blasts on the eve of Diwali, the failed terror strikes on Ayodhya and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, RSS headquarters in Nagpur and then the deadly serial bomb blasts in Varnasi and Mumbai.

On the diplomatic front the war on terrorism was waged with a token note of solidarity at the G-8 summit and tit-for-tat expulsion of diplomats with Islamabad. While President APJ Abdul Kalam has been far more vocal on ideas and approaches to tackle terror, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has pretty much been consumed with defending himself personally on the Indo-US Nuke deal and the Jaswant Singh mole issue.

Terrorism in India

The threat of Pakistan sponsored terrorism in India looms very large. In the 40 days since the 7-11 serial commuter train bomb blasts, nothing the Indian Prime Minister has said or done inspires confidence that the Government's intelligence apparatus is able to connect the dots before the bombs go off next time around.

Routine allegations

The routine allegations and diplomatic soundbites against Pakistan from the Ministry of External Affairs Spokesperson notwithstanding, nothing the Prime Minister has said or done inspires confidence that the Government's diplomatic efforts are paying off. Sooner or later a terrorist attack on a sensitive target will force Manmohan Singh to a post December 13th predicament. An aggressive BJP response and impending elections in Uttar Pradesh will pressurize the Manmohan Singh Government to exercise the Military option in some form or fashion.

Without a full time foreign minister how will India earn the diplomatic capital to exercise its Military Options with the support of its allies against global terror ?

* Offstumped Bottomline: Islamic Terrorism in Pakistan and the Sri Lankan Conflict have reminded us of the acute need for Indian Leadership in the Sub-Continent. The continued flow of terrorism from Pakistan and the high risk of an Al-Qaeda attempt on Musharraf raise the spectre of the dreaded "what after Musharraf" scenario. India needs to be prepared to deal with that dreaded scenario pre-emptively with both Military and Diplomatic Options. India needs a full time foreign minister and it needs it now.*

(Blogger News Network India.)