Sri Lanka: Retaking Sampur as the regional duel continues
 

Source: stratfur

A Sri Lankan army general said Aug. 31 that his forces will take back the town of Sampur from the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam “within a few more days.”

Meanwhile, Pakistan is jockeying for power and influence in Sri Lanka, treading on India’s traditional sphere of influence.
Preferring a contained conflict in Sri Lanka, the Indians will wait out the violence and assume the role of peacemaker at the appropriate time.

Recapturing

Sri Lankan Lt. Gen. Sarath Fonseka said Aug. 31 that Sri Lankan government forces will recapture the rebel-held town of Sampur “within a few more days.” Government troops are currently engaged in a bloody thrust to recover the town, which overlooks the strategic port of Trincomalee, from the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. Though the Sri Lankan army has already recovered Trincomalee, it is attempting to secure its hold on Sampur in order to consolidate its position.

Trincomalee is the deepest natural sea port in the world and is located halfway across the Tiger-held eastern seaboard of the island. Thus it holds significant strategic value for the Sri Lankan government, which has been constantly battling the Tigers’ sophisticated naval wing called the Kadal Puli, or “Sea Tigers.” The enhanced arsenal of the Sea Tigers includes explosives-laden speedboats for suicide missions, mini-submarines and satellite communications technology, all of which pose a significant challenge to Sri Lanka’s maritime capabilities.

India has refused to provide military assistance to the Sri Lankans in the current battle. The reasons for this are primarily political.

India’s large, vocal and electorally important Tamil community has long sympathized with the Tamil cause in Sri Lanka, to the point of providing overt and covert assistance to the Tigers. India’s coalition politics demand that the Prime Minister’s government assure its domestic political allies that India will not intervene against Tamil interests in Sri Lanka. (India had a disastrous experience with direct military intervention in Sri Lanka in the 1980s and is ruling out that option during the current conflict.)

Enter Pakistan. India’s western neighbour has long looked for ways to undermine India’s influence in South Asia, and Sri Lanka represents a wonderful opportunity.

Fight against LTTE

It is an open secret that the Pakistanis have been supplying weaponry to the Sri Lankans in their fight against the Tigers; sources indicate that Pakistan sold 22 al-Khalid tanks to Sri Lanka in a deal worth approximately $110 million. Indian intelligence figures have said that Pakistani air force officers stationed in Colombo have been advising the Sri Lankans in their aerial campaign. Furthermore, Pakistan recently chose a retired deputy air force chief as its ambassador to Sri Lanka. In spite of Tiger retaliations against Pakistan, Islamabad’s calculus remains the same as it continues trying to undercut India’s influence among its neighbours.

Pakistan’s attempt to force its way into India’s sphere of influence fits into a larger pattern of dueling between the two countries. Each assists insurgencies and militant groups operating in the other’s territory. Long accused of sponsoring the Balochi insurgency in Pakistan’s restive southwest, India has attempted to chip away at Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf’s credibility by describing the recent assassination of leading Balochi rebel Akbar Bugti as a “tragic loss.” India has also called for a negotiated settlement of the conflict. Pakistan’s hand has long been seen in India’s domestic Islamist terrorism problem, particularly in its sponsorship of the militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba.

Ultimately, because of the strong Tamil lobby in India, there is little India can do about what it perceives as Pakistani meddling in Sri Lanka.

From a viewpoint of national interest, India is content to allow the Sri Lankan government-Tiger duelling to continue, and will pick an appropriate moment to step in as peacemaker after the Sri Lankans have dealt a heavy blow to the Tigers. The domestic Tamil lobby will ultimately insist on India’s diplomatic intervention to end the bloodshed and refugee migration.