World Population Day falls on July 11:

Tackling increase in population the need of the hour

By Rosanne Koelmeyer Anderson

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Sri Lanka’s estimated population as at 2007 stands at 20.1 m from an 18.7 m in 2001. An increased growth rate of 1.1 has been recorded in 2006 and Sri Lanka has been identified as a country with an increasing population.

Although the crude birth rate from 28.2 in 1981 had steadily decreased to 21.7 in 1991 to 18.5 in 2004, Sri Lanka’s ageing population has shown a significant increase and this could soon become a great challenge in the coming decades with vast economic, social and other consequences says Deputy Director, Census Division, Department of Census and Statistics, H.R. Dias.

Statistics reveal that the proportion of persons aged 60 years and over in the world will double between 2000 and 2050 from 10 per cent to 21 per cent while 52 per cent of the world’s older population is said to live in the Asia and the Pacific which makes this region the fastest ageing region in the world.

Meanwhile, the Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations Secretariat says that as the tempo of ageing in developing countries is more rapid than the developed countries, developing countries will have less time to adapt to the consequences of an ageing population.

This current demographic revolution is predicted to continue for a long period of time. It states that one out of every ten persons is now 60 years or above: by 2050, one out of five will be 60 years or older and by 2150 one out of three persons will be 60 years or older. The older population is ageing.

The oldest old (80 years or older) is the fastest growing segment of the older population and they make up 13 per cent of the 60+ age group and will grow to 20 per cent by 2050. The number of centenarians (aged 100 years or older) is projected to increase 14 fold from approximately 265,000 in 2005 to 3.7 m by 2050 with fifty five per cent of them being women.

Meanwhile, between 2005 and 2050 the old-age dependency ratio is also expected to almost double in more developed regions and triple in the less developed regions making the potential socio-economic impact on society that may result from an increasing old-age dependency ratio an area of growing research and debate.

It is said that another contributory factor towards an ageing population is the increase in life expectancy due to advances in medical technology, improved access to quality reproductive health services, wider vaccination coverage, improved hygiene and nutrition standards as well as increased access to safe water.

Interestingly, the reality of this situation was also pointed out by eminent space visionary Sir Arthur C. Clarke who in an article written by him titled My vision for Sri Lanka in 2048 which appeared in the Daily News of March 22 this year candidly expressed his views.

An excerpt of the article states as follows: During my 40 years of association with the island, the human population has almost doubled and managing this expansion will continue to be one of Sri Lanka’s formidable challenges.

It might be argued that a country so rich in natural resources could support a large population and to much higher standards of living, but the rate of increase in the past fifty years has been so rapid that it did not allow time for necessary planning and infrastructure.

Fortunately, sound pollution policies have now helped Sri Lanka achieve moderate rates of growth, but absolute numbers will continue to grow for decades before stabilizing. It has been said that the biggest remaining challenge in terms of human health and welfare is not so much to add years to life, but to add life to years.

A notable and profound thought. The reality is how far could we stretch our resources which would mean a greater burden on the government and poverty; a vital question each of us ought to ask ourselves, for the answer lies within us and each family unit.

In such a scenario, the question which would appropriately arise is Should there be law enforcement to curtail the maximum number of children to two per family. China and Singapore after all wisely adopted the one child policy and it worked out well for them.

However, substantial effort is being exercised by the Family Health Bureau of Sri Lanka and the Family Planning Association (FPA) of Sri Lanka to keep the figures down and reduce unwanted pregnancies.

The prevalence rate of family planning is currently 71-72 per cent, Dr S.R. Willatgamuwa, Director Medical(FPA) states. Sales of contraceptives have increased while the government too is also conducting many on going outreach programs, lectures and workshops to curb unwanted pregnancies where the MOH officers are directly involved.

Last year, a Service Delivery Point (SDP) was opened with project managers operating around the country while 350 trained volunteers are sent into the rural sector, Anuradhapura, Matara, Kandy and Kurunegala, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Koggala and Biyagama to find out if contraception is successful or not, Dr. Willatgamuwa added.

On the other hand the government healthcare workers too have been detailed to take the Depo Provera injection which is said to be the most popular method three monthly method of contraception to village level while other methods like the Intra Uterine Device ( IUD) which last ten years without having to bother, the contraceptive pills and the use of condoms are also being encouraged and are in widely used statistics reveal.

However, the vital question arises as to how many people, especially in the rural areas actually have sufficient knowledge on how to use these methods successfully for their well being.

It still seems that much awareness about the absolute necessity to control population explosion needs to be addressed more intensely is the need of the hour in order to prevent unwanted pregnancies and probable syndrome which may strike as a last warning cannibalism here we come if we are seriously thinking in terms of reversing the situation and enhancing the lives of our society: for knowledge or awareness will help ensure a better tomorrow.

Meanwhile, the United Nations Statistics Division in collaboration with the Department Census and Statistics of Sri Lanka is organizing a Workshop on the Organization of National Statistical Systems and User-Producer Relations which will take place at Hotel Hilton Colombo from July 21 to 24.

This workshop will bring together senior statisticians and government officials from South Asian countries.

Resource personnel from the United Nations and other international and regional organizations will provide their expertise on the issues. In addition to the workshop, there will be a consultative session with other development partners.