How will the LTTE end?

by Ranjith GUNARATNA

This is a question, which resonates in the minds of many Sri Lankans, today. There seems to be many propositions about the ultimate end of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). The most popular one is militarily defeating the LTTE. Perhaps, the less popular notion is ending of the LTTE through a political process at this crucial point in time.

Achieved limited victory

However, before talking about a possible end of the LTTE, it is useful to look at ways in which a terrorist organisation could reach its end. Of course, like many other things in this world, every terrorist organisation would cease to be functioning one day. According to the history many terrorist organisations have seen their ultimate death in many ways. They reached the end achieving a limited victory, joining the political process, when their central aims and objectives become obsolete, and due to successful military operations of the Government forces.

In this manner, many groups including IRA, EPDP and TMVP in Sri Lanka, Nepal Maoist groups, and Free Aceh Movement (Indonesia) abandoned their terror campaign joining the political process. Most of the other groups such as Italian Red Brigade, Armed Islamic Group (Algeria), Aum Shirikyo (Japan) and Chechen Guerrilla (Russia) have seen their end in the hands of the law enforcement authorities. Interestingly, Hamas in Palestine and Hezbollah in Lebanon have been continuing with the terror campaign even after gaining significant political power. Japanese Red Army died away due to non-viability of their campaign. On certain occasions some groups have joined different other groups dissolving their original organisation. More importantly, the military forces have become the main reason to end terrorist groups only in handful of cases, where the terrorist organisations continued to reject political settlements to the disputes.

Deviated from goal

In considering the above, analysing certain aspects viz. central aim of the LTTE, use of military power to reach its goals, and use of political means to reach its ultimate goals, it would not be impossible to foresee the end of the LTTE.

In this respect, the central aim of the LTTE was so-called liberation of Tamils in Sri Lanka and creation of a separate state for Tamils. Today, the LTTE has deviated significantly from the main goal and it behaves like a typical terrorist movement, which has been unleashing terror even on their own people for selfish gains. Its draconic rules and unending terrorist activities have made the lives of the Tamils in the North extremely difficult. This has resulted in growing rejection of the LTTE by the Tamils.

On certain occasion, people have openly questioned the legitimacy of the LTTE as the sole representative of the Tamils. It is a fact that the most of the activities of the LTTE did not ensure loud applauds from the Tamils.

Externally, only a handful of the Tamil Diaspora extends a helping hand to the LTTE largely due to ethnic affinity and their adherence to the concept of a Tamil homeland.

In the war front, the LTTE has been unable to make use of its military muscles effectively to reach their central aim although it has been waging a war for the last three decades spending huge amount of funds collected mainly from the Tamil community around the world.

The history of its military campaigns indicates that the LTTE is nowhere near in advancing its goals through military means. Undoubtedly, even if it continues to fight for another decade, the LTTE would not be able to defeat the military forces of the Sri Lanka Army and sustain the insurgency unless they could perform a miracle. The past events indicate that the LTTE is not capable of posing a significant threat to the Sri Lankan military forces consisting of superior manpower and better training, modern equipment and able leadership.It is also a fact that the LTTE has rejected the political process as a vehicle to reach their goals.

The organisation rejected contesting any election. At the same time, it opposed all the proposals presented by the Sri Lankan Government. If the LTTE had been able to reach some sort of agreement with the Government of Sri Lanka in the past, by now they could have at least been able to win the hearts and minds of the Tamil people elevating their hopes for a peaceful settlement to the conflict in Sri Lanka. In this sense, the LTTE failed to make use of ample opportunities which were available to them in the past. Still it has not indicated willingness to look for any alternative other than war despite repeated losses. To be successful, the LTTE should have used more energy towards finding a political settlement to the conflict.

This illustrates that rejection of the political process is a fundamental fault in the LTTE strategy.

Nearing end of journey

With that in mind, it would be possible to evaluate the present status of the LTTE in order to find a clue about the end of the organisation.

Undoubtedly, the LTTE is nearing the end of its journey towards Eelam simply because it has not been reasonably effective, flexible and people centric. The logic is simple. The LTTE would not be able to wage a protracted war without replenishing its wastage and losses. For that they need the support of the people. In order to obtain the support of the people they cannot simply sell their outdated ideas and use the gun. The second generation of the Tamil Diaspora is also less enthusiastic and fascinated about the conflict as opposed to their elders.

It appears that the LTTE is finding it very difficult to ensure adequate funds in the long run. In fact, the people have rejected the LTTE on the ground that it has not presented a good report card and achieved what it promised many decades ago. On top of it, when the LTTE continuously losses its military campaigns and fails to sit at the negotiation table and present a viable solution to the conflict, it will no longer be able to be functional as an effective organisation.

Above analysis suggests that the only option available for the LTTE, if the group wants to prevent wiping out of its name from the history of the conflict in Sri Lanka, is to lay down arms in order to make a transition to non-violence and talk to the Government with the blessing of the Tamil people, who are yearning for peace. Laying down arms is a necessary component of the present stage of the conflict if the LTTE is genuine in looking for peace. More importantly, the LTTE’s probability of success in actually overthrowing a democratically elected Government in Sri Lanka militarily is zero at this moment in history. However, it seems that the LTTE does not wish to resort to this last option. Thus, it would see its inevitable end within a short period of time.

The writer is Director General, Middle East Division of the Ministry of External Affairs.