Prof. Peiris dissects election results

Prof. G. L. Peiris, Minister of Export Development, International Trade and Acting Minister of Posts and Telecommunications has analysed the Uva Provincial Council election results of August 2009 as against the Presidential Election results of November 2005 of the province.

The following brief write up and the graph clearly demonstrate the people’s confidence and the popularity of President Rajapaksa Government.

The results of the Uva Provincial Council election are of interest and importance, from several points of view.

The natural trend is for governments to decline in popularity with the passage of time. The principal feature of interest with regard to the recent election is that, quite contrary to the regular pattern, the government has dramatically increased the level of its popularity during the four years since the Presidential election.

What is offered in graphic form is comparative analysis of the voting pattern, as it manifested itself in the Presidential election held in November 2005 and in the Provincial Council election which took place on 8th August 2009. The marked shift in the attitudes of voters is clearly seen in this analysis which is made on the basis of polling divisions (constituencies or electorates, as they used to be called).

The uniformity of the pattern is very striking. Each of the 9 polling divisions in the Badulla district, and the 3 polling divisions in the Monaragala district, presents essentially the same picture.

Although the assumption is often made that the proportional representation system militates against a two-thirds majority being gained by the winner, recent elections in Sri Lanka have produced an outcome which demonstrates that this is not necessarily so.

The Wayamba Provincial Council election, held a few months ago, gave the political parties comprising the government a two-thirds majority.

The Uva Provincial Council election results put the government in an even stronger position: the two-thirds threshold was easily surpassed, and the final results gave the government a strength which fell just short of a three-fourths majority.

Of equal significance is the evident feature that this strength reflected itself in the voting patterns within each community. For example, Tamil and Muslim voters constitute 49% of the voters of the Passara polling division; there are 15,000 Muslim voters in the Welimada polling division. The impressive majorities secured by the governing coalition would not have been possible without the vigorous support of these communities.

The very considerable widening of the support base of the government since its election is apparent on the face of these results.

It is relevant, as well, to point out that, although the percentage of ballots cast at the Provincial Council election was naturally lower than that at the Presidential election, the difference was not significant and the turnout on 8th August was what could be typically expected at a Provincial Council election, given the experience of the recent past.

Thus, as examples, the percentage of ballots cast in 2005 and 2009 respectively was 76% and 71% in Badulla, 77% and 69% in Bandarawela, 78% and 68% in Haliela, 77% and 65% in Wiyaluwa, 77% and 66% in both Passara and Haputale, 77% and 66% in Mahiyanganaya and 76% and 65% in Monaragala. The difference is the natural difference between a Presidential election and a Provincial Council election.

There can be no doubt that this unprecedented degree of political stability is a significant component of the factors which have engendered the prevailing investor friendly climate in Sri Lanka. Last week the inflows of foreign capital into Sri Lanka exceeded one billion U.S. dollars, and further funds are coming in steadily. The country’s external reserves are now more than 3.2 billion U.S. dollars.

Prof. G. L. Peiris

Minister of Export Development and International Trade; Acting Minister of Posts and Telecommunications.