Is climate change irreversible?

by Patali CHAMPIKA RANAWAKA

A few weeks ago, I had the privilege of delivering a speech on climate change and related issues at a meeting of the Institute of Engineers, held at Wimalasurendra Auditorium in Colombo. After the well attended meeting, it was a pleasure for me to have an informal discussion with some of the academics and professionals present. They were not strangers to me as many of them have had links to my alma mater - the University of Moratuwa.

At this cordial meeting, frank views on the subject of climate change were exchanged. However, the main thrust of the arguments set out by many at the informal gathering was that, the envisaged climate change and global warming would be a blessing in disguise for the western powers. Many speakers were of the view that the global warming would mitigate the hardships experienced by the western countries during the Winter and it will also significantly reduce the energy needed to keep the environment artificially warm, which is very costly.

They were also of the view that the land that will come up to the surface with the melting of ice could be made available for agricultural purposes. They argued that melting of Arctic ice caps may not be so disastrous as many countries have already demarcated their boundaries and are operating new sea routes.

Also, according to them, it will facilitate the Baltic countries to unearth or tap their own massive minerals and fossil fuel deposits. Therefore, they argued that these changes would be a blessing for the industrialized western countries although it would be a terrible curse on poor tropical countries like Sri Lanka. Although, I shared the view that the climate change related environmental issues are skewed mainly towards the poor tropical countries, I could not subscribe to their assertion that the Baltic countries or the developed countries could totally benefit from environmental calamities induced by climate change in the time to come.

On the same day of the Engineers' meeting, I received the latest report on climate science published by the University of New South Wales - the Copenhagen Diagnosis, updating the latest information on climate science. This report carries a range of important topics covered by the IPCC, namely physical science basis. I was anxious to know what "modern science" is going to predict. Although, I knew that climate change is happening, according to the report it is happening faster than the prediction of the IPCC. Naturally, I was shocked to learn the appalling situation, yet to come.

The first finding of this report is that the green house gas emissions are surging at an alarming rate. It was earlier agreed that these so-called developed countries should collectively cut their emission by 5.2% relative to the 1990 level. Although a voluntary period from 1997 to 2007 had been declared as per the Kyoto legal agreement, nothing has happened up to date. Instead, global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuel in 2008 were nearly 40% higher than those in 1990. The IPCC had introduced a carbon budget (2007) to stabilize the temperature rise by 2oC for the whole century (21st) with 50% probability to avoid a catastrophic environmental disaster.

But the recent report (2009) says that even if global emission rates are stabilized at present day levels, just 20 more years of emission would give 25% probability and the warming will exceed by 2oC, given that zero emissions after 2030. It clearly shows that the world is now not in a position to meet the IPCC criteria to avoid dangerous climate change calamities. They simply could not be able to contain the temperature rise by 2oC and now it is estimated that the mean temperature will rise from 2oC to 7oC by the end of this century. Does that mean the world - our blue planet is going to experience a dangerous environmental calamity? Is it inevitable now?

The second finding is that the recent drastic increase of global temperature is due to human activities. When I met the former US Vice President Al Gore at the UN Climate Summit in 2008, he revealed that some consultants working in the US Presidential Office, deliberately had doctored the data on temperature rise and had tried to explain the temperature rise by using solar Dot effect, enabling the oil companies to run its business as usual. When I was in the UN this time (2009), many media agencies, by way of paid advertisements, tried to portray that global warming is not happening and carbon dioxide indeed will help for the growth of life.

I could remember having seen a documentary film titled "Great Global Warming Swindle" which featured world famous green peace activists and scientists trying to assert that global warming is a natural phenomenon, and is not human induced. However, contrary to what the media is trying to assert, the scientific report clearly demonstrates that the recent global warming is human induced.

Over the past 25 years temperatures have increased at the rate of 0.19oC per decade, in keeping with the predictions based on the data of green house gas increases. Even during the past 10 years, despite a decrease in solar forcing, the trend continues to be one of warming.

Although, natural short term fluctuations occur as usual, there have been no significant changes in the underline warming trend, the report further reveals.

The third finding is that, it is evident now that melting of ice sheets, glaciers and ice caps are being accelerated. Recent satellite images and ground level ice caps measurements now demonstrate, beyond any doubt, that both Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are losing its mass at an unpredictable rate. The same phenomenon could be identified in other parts of the world as well. When I visited Kathmandu - Nepal a few months ago, I met scientists from the Central Asian countries, such as Azerbaijan and Armenia etc. who have had their training in Russia.

They had done extensive research in Himalayan and Central Asian ice caps, including glacier lakes like Baikal. They showed us Russian satellite images and explained how melting ice caps in the Himalayan and Hindukush regions had accelerated since 1990. Reports also specifically mention about summer time melting of Arctic ice.

This has accelerated far beyond the expectations of mathematical modules used to predict melting of ice caps. The area of sea - ice melt during 2007 to 2009 has been about 40% greater than the average prediction of IPCC climate modules.

Global warming is due to accumulate solar radiation. Polar ice, as well as other permanent ice caps are going to melt further.

Himalayan and Polar ice sheets used to act as giant mirrors which could reflect back solar radiation thereby heat accumulation is being reduced. More and more of these ice caps have been melting which could mean that this mirroring effect would get reduced, and all the solar radiation will be absorbed by newly created oceans.

So a vicious circle is being created. More solar radiation causes more ice to melt and since more ice is melted down, absorption of solar radiation will get increased.

The fourth finding is most important. It says that the current sea level rise is underestimated. Satellite images show that the recent global average sea level rise (3.4mm/year over the past 15 years) to be 80% above the past IPCC predictions.

The oceanic water expansion and contribution of melting ice caps are dominant factors for accelerating the sea level rise. According to the revised predictions, by 2100 the global sea level is likely to rise at least twice as much as projected by the IPCC and for the unmitigated emission it may well exceed one metre and the upper limit has been estimated to be 2 metres. So we could expect several metres of sea level rise over the next few centuries.

The fifth finding is that the delay in action may risk irreversible damage to mother earth. If the on-going climate change is permanently changed, the global pattern of ice sheets, rain forest, monsoons etc, and the present civilisational pattern could also be changed. Huge migrations causing resurfacing of the entire civilizations. That phenomenon may cause to have very serious security issues. If the dynamic equilibrium of the global eco-system is permanently going to change, where would be the turning point of the entire human civilization?

It is being estimated that if global warming is to be limited to a maximum of 2oC above the pre industrial values (0.93oC has already being increased) the global emission need to peak between 2015-2020 and then decline rapidly. By 2050 the average annual per capita emissions will have to shrink to well under one Metric Ton of carbon dioxide. Now the USA per-capita value is 24MT and Canada and Australia emit over 20MT, Japan and EU emit nearly 10Mt (per-capita) of carbon dioxide. So they all should cut their emission level by 80-90% below the per-capita emissions enjoyed by them in 2009. Will they be able to do that?

When the Kyoto protocol was signed, there was much euphoria. However, the USA, Canada and Australia had refused to sign it sabotaging the climate discussions and as a result up to date only 60% of the global carbon emission is covered by the Kyoto signatories. In addition the legally binding emission reductions also have not yet been met.

The governments have been changed in the USA, Australia and Japan and all those new governments had promised emission cuts. But Obama may not be able to implement his clean energy policy while maintaining its emission levels, as even at present the oil giants and the Senate are geared to scuttle the approval process.

It has already happened in Australia, Britain - France and EU countries in general, while Japan has come up with some encouraging new proposals. Although, no concrete action has so far materialized. It seems that when billions suffer due to climate change related events, Copenhagen Summit would not be able to deliver any global action. The NATO is spreading widely - No Action, Talk Only, until up to the extinction of the humankind.n

The writer is the Minister of Environment and Natural Resources