Government set to win bigger mandate:

UPFA victory certain

by Dinesh WEERAWANSA

The ruling United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA)led by President Mahinda Rajapaksa, is tipped to win this week’s parliamentary general election with a clear majority.

Political observers said that a victory for the UPFA is certain with a majority of over two million votes, which would give the ruling alliance a near two-third majority.

The UPFA hopes to receive over 6.5 million votes in the overall result.

There has been overwhelming support for President Rajapaksa and the UPFA in the rural and urban areas. A larger majority of votes is expected from the North Central, Uva and Southern provinces. The UPFA is set to strengthen its grip in the North Western, Central and Sabaragamuwa provinces.

Though the UNP enjoys a slight advantage in the Colombo city, the UPFA is again set to win the Colombo district, with at least 12 seats. Voters in the UPFA strongholds of the Gampaha and Kalutara districts are expected to make a greater contribution to a UPFA victory. The presence of Senior Presidential Advisor Basil Rajapaksa to spearhead the Gampaha district campaign is expected to garner more votes for the UPFA.

The ruling alliance is also expected to secure more votes in the Southern Province than what it polled at the last presidential election. Five surveys conducted by reputed agencies and organisations predicted an easy victory for the UPFA - 128 seats to 152 - the upper range reaching a two-third majority.

Informed sources said that at least eight would-be MPs contesting from the UNP have already pledged their support for the President once they are elected at Thursday’s election.

Most of them are holding on to their likely crossovers as it would be advantageous for them to contest on the UNP ticket and secure their seats, rather than join the UPFA on the eve of the election.

Political observers said that there would be further erosion in the UNP vote base after its third successive presidential election defeat. Many UNP seniors expressed dissatisfaction over the manner in which the party offered nominations, giving preference to less-known candidates from Mangala Samaraweera’s faction over several established UNP district stalwarts.

The JVP, which secured 41 seats at the last 2004 general election, is unlikely to secure even six seats in the entire island.

The UNP has declared an unofficial all-out war against the Fonseka-led JVP alliance which is attempting to tap some of the UNP votes which were cast in favour of Fonseka at the last presidential election.

It is unequivocally clear that the Government led by President Rajapaksa would win a bigger mandate in Parliament and Sri Lanka would be taken to greater heights.

By re-electing him for another six years at the January 2010 elections, the masses have clearly identified him as the only leader who could take the country forward and usher in economic prosperity, as much as he brought peace to the country, the sources said.

Meanwhile, the University of Kelaniya which made an accurate prediction of all surveys at the last presidential election, has again predicted a landslide victory for the UPFA.

The latest survey conducted by the university revealed that the UPFA will obtain 65 percent of the total votes at the forthcoming election. According to Kelaniya University Mass Communication Department Senior Lecturer Dr. Rohana Lakshman Piyadasa, the UPFA will obtain a near two-third majority in Parliament.

The survey results clearly indicate that the UPFA will get 65 percent of the total votes and accordingly will secure either 145 or 146 seats in the 225-member Parliament, subject to the forecast’s five percent margin of error.

According to the same survey, the UNP will obtain around 28 percent of the total votes and will receive only 55 seats - 29 less than what they secured at the last general election. The other political parties, including the TNA and JVP, will obtain only around 12. seats.