Does Icelandic volcano mean world's end?

by Prasanna Amaranayake and Dinesh Alwis

Nine hundred and seventy one days left until December 21, 2012. Do you remember the epic adventure movie "2012" about a global cataclysm that brings an end to the world and the heroic struggle of the survivors? Giant fissures open up in the earth's surface, mountains turn to volcanoes and skyscrapers turn to ash, and eventually tidal waves cover the entire earth's surface in "2012".

Is this epic adventure becoming a reality in 2010? Iceland is the world's 18th largest island and the interior mainly consists of a plateau characterised by sand fields, mountains and glaciers, while many glacial rivers flow to the sea through the lowlands. But, suddenly, Eyjafjallajokul, a disastrous volcano, has changed everything.

An unusual and dramatic natural disaster has been creating uneasy reality in Iceland during the past few days. It gave a small indication on March 20 of something to come, but on April 14, when the volcano suddenly roared again to life, there were amazing chain reactions "Ice chunks the size of houses tumbled down from a volcano beneath Iceland's Eyjafjallajokul glacier, as hot gases melted the ice.

Torrents of water filled with ash and pumice roared down the steep slopes of the volcano and huge cloud of volcanic ash spread across the continent." The hundreds of nearby residents have been evacuated. It is still unclear how long that disruption will last.

Transport chaos

The volcanic eruption of Eyjafjallajokul has devastated Europe's air travel system. The cloud of volcanic ash drifting across Europe is continuing to make much of the continent a no-fly zone in all over the Europe, due to its voluminous clouds of volcanic ash that can clog airplane engines and limit visibility.

Plane engines can be totally disabled by flying in the silica-laden particulate clouds.

According to the reports of International Airports Council, the volcano ash cloud has paralysed 313 airports since April 15. Around 65,000 flights have been cancelled forcing about seven million passengers to delay their travel. This disaster is now costing airlines around the world an estimated $200 million per day. A million of Europeans are stranded in various parts of the world unable to get home due to flight restrictions. The anxious passengers have told stories of missed weddings, business deals and holidays because of this ominous eruption.

Stranded passengers reported that the delays were causing financial hardships. Some had to check out of hotels and sleep in airports. Some airports look like refugee camps. However, the business on rail lines was booming, with extra trains and operating at standing-room only. Car rental agencies in Europe were running out of cars, and some taxi companies were levying enormous fares even for a short destination.

Health problems

Meanwhile, some airlines are keen on running test flights without passengers to assess the situation. The adverse consequences of this disaster has shown the real need of more research and use of technological advances to strengthen airplane windshields and to create advanced filters to prevent damage to airplane engines.

The ash and gases released would cause extreme weather across Europe and contributed to a continent-wide risk in deaths from respiratory diseases. The World Health Organization (WHO) and the United Nations (UN) health agency have warned people around the affected area to consider wearing facemasks to avoid breathing the grainy smoke, especially people with asthma and other respiratory problems.

It is estimated that about 25 per cent of the particles in the ash are less than 10 microns in size. These are considered as more dangerous because they penetrate deeper into the lungs. Certain chemical compounds in ashes can cause health problems such as lung disease, heart problems, silicosis, itchy eyes, minor skin irritation, sore throat or dry cough in most people.

However, the cloud is suspended high in the atmosphere and the particles have not begun to settle yet. When the particles do settle, they could cause an increase in health concerns in future.

Economy and agriculture

The economic ripples were being felt worldwide. In the short-term, the overall economic impact of the disruption is expected to be minimal. But a prolonged period without air transport could have a detrimental effect on European economies just as they were emerging from a damaging recession, some economists warn.

The airline cancellations were reflected in European stock markets, where the prices of flagship airlines for three hard-hit countries fell. British Airways shares fell 1.1 per cent, Germany's Lufthansa fell 2.1 per cent, and Air France-KLM dropped 1.7 per cent. The American Stock Exchange airline index has shown more than three per cent reduction in trading. Economists believe that although the tourism industry will lose money from customers unable to make the trip, stranded passengers unable to return home will also be forced to spend more money than expected - offsetting some of those losses. The prolonged disruption could have a much greater impact on tourism, especially in the run-up to the busier summer months.Businesses are also expected to lose planned returns due to cancelled business meetings, stranded staff, and delays to air mail.

Productivity in the Europe would suffer due to workers being unable to return to work.

The economic damage of Icelandic volcano eruption will roll through to farms, retail and nearly any business that depends on air cargo shipments. Major courier companies such as FedEx, DHL and TNT have reported delays and disruption to their services. International trade relies more heavily on road, rail and sea freight than it does on air freight.

But the disruption has caused real problems for those trading perishable goods, including food and flowers, which depend on air freight. For instance, food exports from Africa and the Caribbean are among those hit, with reports of Kenyan farmers being forced to dump stocks of fresh food and flowers destined for European consumers. Meanwhile, the fresh produce and other imported foods are growing scarce at European groceries.

The animals in the agricultural farms are at risk of fluoride poisoning. If farm animals inhale or ingest the ash it would lead to internal bleeding, long-term bone damage and teeth loss. Sheep, cattle and horses were rushed to shelter after they got lost in a fog of ash in areas near an erupting volcano.

Areas south of the volcano have been caked in a layer of grey ash some 10cm thick. Ponds have turned into pools of cement-like mud and geese have had trouble flying because their wings are heavy with ash. However, beyond the initial burnings, there are the possible longer concerns over crops and livestock production in Europe.

This disaster affects not only transport, economy, agriculture and health but also sports.

For instance, the volcanic ash that has spread over Europe might affect the Twenty20 World Cup Cricket in the West Indies as many teams have planned to travel to West Indies via London.

At the time of writing, according to the latest news, half of Europe's flights will be back by the end of the week, but the volcano still threaten reopening Europe's airspace totally.

The volcano is still erupting but producing less ash. The destination and duration of the volcanic plume depends primarily on weather conditions like rain and winds.

People often tend to thikn that they are great, with all their high technology but Mother Nature thinks otherwise.Our job is not to fear the disasters that nature unleashes but to understand them early, figure out where they came from, and eventually take precautions to minimise its adverse effects.