
America's economy; The pace we've come to expect
For the second month in a row, America's labour market has
disappointed, once again raising questions about whether the economic
recovery is truly entrenched. Nonfarm payrolls rose just 115,000 in
April from March. While the unemployment rate dipped to 8.1%, the lowest
since early 2009, from 8.2%, it did so for the wrong reason: the labour
force (those working or looking for work) shrank by 342,000.
Private payrolls rose 130,000, but government payrolls shrank,
something of a setback because the state and local government austerity
that had created such a drag in the past two years had shown signs of
easing this year. However, manufacturing payrolls did rise again,
suggesting that the industrial sector, and exports in particular, remain
a bright spot. Retail employment also recovered, suggesting the recent
rise in petrol prices to around $4 a gallon has yet to take a big bite
out of the consumer.
One of the most troubling aspects of this report is that the
shrinkage of the labour force means that just 63.6% of working-age
adults are now actively engaged in work or looking for work. That's the
lowest participation rate in decades. Part of this may be discouraged
workers giving up the job hunt; the so-called "underemployment rate", or
U-6 rate to data wonks, held steady at 14.5% in April. But this rate has
actually fallen faster than the overall unemployment rate since
September, so the story here is more fundamental than lousy job
prospects: it's a troubling sign of the slowing potential growth of the
economy.
Now for the positive (such as it is) side. People will wonder if the
economy is about to stall, much as it did in the second quarter of last
year and the year before. The report is mostly disappointing because it
is the second month in a row of sub-200,000 job growth. On the positive
side, the previous two months' employment were revised up a cumulative
53,000. And importantly, other data on the economy shows no signs of a
sudden dropoff in activity; unemployment insurance claims dropped last
week, factory purchasing managers' activity picked up in April, car
sales remained strong that month, and the stock market is largely
holding its strong year-to-date gains.
Reading the Abbottabad papers ; Rebranding al-Qaeda
The documents seized from Osama bin Laden's Abbottabad compound a
year ago that were released on May 3rd are both fascinating and
unsurprising. The picture they paint is consistent with briefings from
intelligence sources that were recently reported in The Economist of a
deeply frustrated man who had seen most of his close colleagues killed,
was baffled by how to respond to the Arab spring, had little control
over al-Qaeda (AQ) "franchises" in Yemen and the Maghreb and whose
plotting against Western targets had become almost entirely detached
from the reality of the hollowed-out terrorist network's ability to
deliver.
A note of caution is in order, however. The 17 documents translated
and released with a commentary by experts at the Combating Terrorism
Centre, based at the West Point military academy is only a tiny fraction
of the many thousands of computer files that the raid by Navy Seals
brought out. Described by Western spooks as a "treasure trove", the vast
majority will remain classified for a long time to come, leaving AQ
operatives guessing about how much their enemies know about exactly
where they are, who they are talking to and what they are doing.
US expects dissident Chen ; Guangcheng to leave China soon
The US says it expects China to allow prominent dissident Chen
Guangcheng to travel abroad soon.
The US state department said Mr Chen had been offered a fellowship at
an American university, and it would allow his wife and children to
accompany him. Earlier, Beijing said the blind activist could apply to
study abroad paving the way for a resolution to a tense diplomatic
stand-off with the US. Mr Chen fled house arrest last month and spent
six days in the US embassy. He left but now says he wants to go to the
US with his family. His case has overshadowed high level US China talks
taking place in Beijing. US State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland
said in a statement that Mr Chen had been offered a fellowship from an
American university later identified as New York University (NYU). She
said Mr Chen could be accompanied by his wife and children, and that the
US expected Beijing to process their application for travel.
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