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Sunday, 6 May 2012

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America's economy; The pace we've come to expect

For the second month in a row, America's labour market has disappointed, once again raising questions about whether the economic recovery is truly entrenched. Nonfarm payrolls rose just 115,000 in April from March. While the unemployment rate dipped to 8.1%, the lowest since early 2009, from 8.2%, it did so for the wrong reason: the labour force (those working or looking for work) shrank by 342,000.

Private payrolls rose 130,000, but government payrolls shrank, something of a setback because the state and local government austerity that had created such a drag in the past two years had shown signs of easing this year. However, manufacturing payrolls did rise again, suggesting that the industrial sector, and exports in particular, remain a bright spot. Retail employment also recovered, suggesting the recent rise in petrol prices to around $4 a gallon has yet to take a big bite out of the consumer.

One of the most troubling aspects of this report is that the shrinkage of the labour force means that just 63.6% of working-age adults are now actively engaged in work or looking for work. That's the lowest participation rate in decades. Part of this may be discouraged workers giving up the job hunt; the so-called "underemployment rate", or U-6 rate to data wonks, held steady at 14.5% in April. But this rate has actually fallen faster than the overall unemployment rate since September, so the story here is more fundamental than lousy job prospects: it's a troubling sign of the slowing potential growth of the economy.

Now for the positive (such as it is) side. People will wonder if the economy is about to stall, much as it did in the second quarter of last year and the year before. The report is mostly disappointing because it is the second month in a row of sub-200,000 job growth. On the positive side, the previous two months' employment were revised up a cumulative 53,000. And importantly, other data on the economy shows no signs of a sudden dropoff in activity; unemployment insurance claims dropped last week, factory purchasing managers' activity picked up in April, car sales remained strong that month, and the stock market is largely holding its strong year-to-date gains.


Reading the Abbottabad papers ; Rebranding al-Qaeda

The documents seized from Osama bin Laden's Abbottabad compound a year ago that were released on May 3rd are both fascinating and unsurprising. The picture they paint is consistent with briefings from intelligence sources that were recently reported in The Economist of a deeply frustrated man who had seen most of his close colleagues killed, was baffled by how to respond to the Arab spring, had little control over al-Qaeda (AQ) "franchises" in Yemen and the Maghreb and whose plotting against Western targets had become almost entirely detached from the reality of the hollowed-out terrorist network's ability to deliver.

A note of caution is in order, however. The 17 documents translated and released with a commentary by experts at the Combating Terrorism Centre, based at the West Point military academy is only a tiny fraction of the many thousands of computer files that the raid by Navy Seals brought out. Described by Western spooks as a "treasure trove", the vast majority will remain classified for a long time to come, leaving AQ operatives guessing about how much their enemies know about exactly where they are, who they are talking to and what they are doing.


US expects dissident Chen ; Guangcheng to leave China soon

The US says it expects China to allow prominent dissident Chen Guangcheng to travel abroad soon.

The US state department said Mr Chen had been offered a fellowship at an American university, and it would allow his wife and children to accompany him. Earlier, Beijing said the blind activist could apply to study abroad paving the way for a resolution to a tense diplomatic stand-off with the US. Mr Chen fled house arrest last month and spent six days in the US embassy. He left but now says he wants to go to the US with his family. His case has overshadowed high level US China talks taking place in Beijing. US State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said in a statement that Mr Chen had been offered a fellowship from an American university later identified as New York University (NYU). She said Mr Chen could be accompanied by his wife and children, and that the US expected Beijing to process their application for travel.

 

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