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Sunday, 16 September 2012

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Those making false statements about the economy must be made accountable

Over the past few years, one or two politicians and some unnamed analysts have been making negative statements regularly about the economy, which has been highly provocative and offensive. It is obvious that such statements have been designed to create a fear psychosis in the minds of the recipients of these messages with resultant negative consequences to the economy.

However, the persons who make these irresponsible statements have never been held accountable for their deliberately misleading statements, and have got off scot free, notwithstanding the huge damage caused to the country by their statements. As a result, they have continued to fabricate new horror stories and continued to inflict damage on the economy.

It is now time to expose these elements and highlight the damage they have caused to the economy of Sri Lanka. Such disclosure may, hopefully someday, prompt society to bring these persons to justice, and compel them to compensate the country for the colossal monetary losses caused by them.

An exposure of that nature is particularly relevant, since in today's information-age, misinformation, falsehoods, doctored analysis, and downright lies could be far more damaging than violent physical assaults, and therefore society must implement suitable strategies to deal with this type of reprehensible and vulgar behaviour.

In 2007, an economic hit-team, led by a present day politician, embarked on a massive campaign against the first ever international sovereign bond of US$ 500m that Sri Lanka launched at that time. The hit-team threatened all international investors that a future Government of Sri Lanka led by the political party they belonged to, would not repay the bond, if they (investors) were to invest in the Sri Lankan bonds.

That highly damaging threat had a major impact on the interest rate of the bond, and consequently Sri Lanka had to pay an interest rate which was at least 1.5 percent per annum higher than what would have otherwise been payable, if not for these offensive statements.

In money terms, the additional interest in dollars on the bond issues of US$ 500 m each, issued in 2007 and 2008, works out to about US$ 75 m, which means that the economic hit-men had caused a loss of US$ 75 m to the country, over the past five years.

In 2008, when Sri Lanka's inflation showed a tendency to increase, the same economic hit-men went on the rampage, holding press conferences, disseminating dubious analysis and articles, and proclaiming that Sri Lanka will soon end up like Zimbabwe, and suffer hyper-inflation. Those concerted attacks put fear and panic into the minds of some people and investors, and as a result, inflation expectations rose sharply.

The high inflation expectations served to damage business sentiment, increase interest rates, and discourage investments, which were obviously the negative outcome that these hit-men were attempting to achieve. Fortunately, the Government and the Central Bank were able to defeat the negativity, and almost as a slap on the faces of these hit-men, Sri Lanka has now been able to register its longest ever period of low inflation since the liberalisation of the economy in 1977.

In 2008 and 2009, the vociferous economic hit-team spread the canard that the impending withdrawal GSP+ concessions by the EU would lead to 500,000 job losses in the country, and that the garment export sector would be crippled. As a result of these warnings, some economic stakeholders became nervous and adopted a 'wait and see' attitude, while credit rating agencies and international organisations expressed serious apprehension.

In due course, the GSP+ was withdrawn, and the economy suffered no real damage as warned by these detractors. However, the damage to the economy as a result of the artificially created negative public sentiment in the run-up period was significant, in tangible and intangible terms.

In 2009, this same well-known economic hit-team, at the first sign of some disturbance in one bank, vigorously warned the public that the entire financial system in Sri Lanka is on the verge of collapse. They held press conferences and indirectly asked people to pull their money out of banks and finance companies, knowing very well that such an occurrence would destabilise the entire financial system and create economic chaos.

Had their efforts succeeded, the damage would have been incalculable, but here too, the Government and the Central Bank were able to overcome the stress and defeat this anti-national campaign, by quickly stabilising all banks and finance companies.

In recent times, another highly mischievous and utterly distasteful insult levelled by the notorious boss of the economic hit-men club, was that China is the world's economic hit-man. Perhaps this anti-China politician may have been upset that China had been making substantial investments in Sri Lanka's infrastructure projects and that reality may have prompted him to recklessly label China as an economic hit-man. But, in so doing, he had also labelled his own political party as being a staunch anti-China party.

Such an anti-China policy would not do any good for his political party, and it is likely that long-standing stalwarts in that party may now be hoping that their party's current anti-China policy will not lead them to disastrous results, just like their anti-India policy of the late 70s, left them in dire straits in the 80s.

In the light of these and many other instances of false analysis, reckless threats, cunning deceptions and downright lies, many now believe that appropriate counter measures must be introduced to expose these anti-national elements.

This is particularly important because all this time, these elements have been able to make irresponsible and false statements, inflict damage on the economy, and get away with it.

Therefore, society must now develop mechanisms to name these shameful economic hit-men, and not be shy to describe these anti-national elements in the manner that they should really be described: Traitors.

 

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