Bananas could replace potatoes in warming world
3 November BBC
Climate change could lead to bananas becoming a critical food source
for millions of people, a new report says. Researchers from the CGIAR
agricultural partnership say the fruit might replace potatoes in some
developing countries. Cassava and the little known cowpea plant could
play increasingly important roles in agriculture as temperatures rise.
People will have to adapt to new and varied menus as traditional
crops struggle say the authors.
Responding to a request from the United Nations' committee on world
food security, a group of experts in the field looked at the projected
effects of climate change on 22 of the world's most important
agricultural commodities. They predict that the world's three biggest
crops in terms of calories provided maize, rice and wheat - will
decrease in many developing countries. They suggest that the potato,
which grows best in cooler climates, could also suffer as temperatures
increase and weather becomes more volatile. The authors argue that these
changes "could provide an opening for cultivating certain varieties of
bananas" at higher altitudes, even in those places that currently grow
potatoes.
Dr Philip Thornton is one of those behind the report. He told BBC
News that while bananas also have limiting factors, they may be a good
substitute for potatoes in certain locations. "It's not necessarily a
silver bullet but there may be places where as temperatures increase,
bananas might be one option that small holders could start to look at."
The report describes wheat as the world's most important plant derived
protein and calories source. But according to this research, wheat will
face a difficult future in the developing world where higher prices for
cotton, maize and soybeans have pushed wheat to marginal land, making it
more vulnerable to stresses induced by climate change. One substitute,
especially in South Asia, could be cassava which can tolerate a range of
climate stresses.
But how easy will it be to get people to adjust to new crops and new
diets? Bruce Campbell is program director of the climate change,
agriculture and food security research group (CCAFS) which co-ordinates
work among leading institutions around the world. He told BBC News that
the types of changes that will happen in the future have already
happened in the past.
"Two decades ago there was almost no rice consumption in certain
areas of Africa, now there is. People have changed because of the
pricing, it's easier to get, it's easier to cook. I think those sort of
shifts do occur and I think they will in future." One of the big
concerns among researchers is how to tackle the need for protein in the
diet. Soybeans are one of the most common sources but are very
susceptible to temperature changes. The scientists say that the cowpea,
which is known in sub-Saharan Africa as the "poor man's meat" is drought
tolerant and prefers warmer weather and could be a reasonable
alternative to soya. The vines of the cowpea can also be used as a feed
for livestock.In some countries, including Nigeria and Niger, farmers
have already moved away from cotton production to growing cowpeas.There
are also likely to be developments animal protein sources says the
report including a shift from to smaller livestock.
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