Earthquake predictions, a non-event

By Manjula Fernando

The predictions by certain astrologers of a moderate earthquake in Sri Lanka on December 29, fortunately became a non-event.

Eventhough the credibility of many of the astrologers who made the bold claim was in question, many including the educated and influential, harboured fears deep down due to the 'what if' factor.

Around 10 am yesterday the Sunday Observer was disturbed by a call from a relative of a staffer in Hikkaduwa. The caller said a tsunami warning had been issued in the area.

The uneasiness in the callers voice had a domino effect. However, a prompt call to Disaster Management Centre's Deputy Director (Media) Sarath Lal Kumara proved it to be a false alarm. In fact, just a rumour spread, may be, by some pranksters.

These astrologers are driving people mad, he retorted.

Renowned geologist Prof. Kapila Dahanayake of the Peradeniya University, after being inquired about these assertions denied point-blank the ability to predict earthquakes. There is no advanced technology that can predict earthquakes.

"As far as I am concerned, it is absurd to go by such astrological claims on disasters. There may be a chance that an earthquake may occur, no one can exactly predict an earthquake and its location beforehand. Astrology is not an exact science, but seismology is, he said.

There was an educated guess of the possibility of a 'major disaster' five days before the massive 9.1 point earthquake that triggered the boxing day tsunami in December 2004. Prof. Dahanayake who made this prediction to the Daily News of December 21, 2004, said it was based on the early shocks and frequent tremors recorded during that time. But, he said ,that too was pure guess work since more often than not such tremors die down without any eventful strike.

As of today no advanced technology has predicted earthquakes or tsunamis. Of course there are traditional methods used by indigenous people to guess the possibility of natural disasters by observing the behaviour of animals but these are not scientific methods. Such methods are used in Himalayas and in China.

If the US Geological Survey is not predicting or if Japan is not predicting an earthquake we need not fear. They have the most advanced technology to measure seismic activity.

These haphazard predictions can cause panic and create chaotic situations so the best is to ignore them, he said.