China to relax one-child policy as part of economic, social reforms
16 Nov .nbcnews.com
China is to loosen its one-child policy as part of major reforms
aimed at securing its economic future and strengthening policy ties with
the United States, state media reported .
The ruling Communist Party of China (CPC) will also reduce the number
of crimes punishable by death, "work to ban" getting criminal
confessions through torture, and improve the legal system.Although the
changes include human rights reforms, they are driven by economics.
Loosening of the family planning laws would help prevent the looming
crisis caused by an aging population, and ensure continued manufacturing
growth, analysts said."China has reached a turning point where the
demographic dividend will become a liability," said Shuang Ding, China
economist at Citigroup.The CPC said it would in future allow couples to
have two children if one of the parents is an only child, the state-run
Xinhua news agency reported. Current law allows couples living in cities
to have two children - if neither parent has any brothers or sisters.
Many analysts say the one-child policy has shrunk China's labor pool,
hurting economic growth. For the first time in decades the working age
population fell in 2012, and China could be the first country in the
world to get old before it gets rich.
Around 8.5 percent of China's population 114.8 million people is over
65, and this will rise to 23.9 percent - around 322.9 million people by
2050, according to United Nations data.The CPC said the change in family
planning policy was intended to promote "long-term balanced development
of the population in China," Xinhua said.
However, according to Fraiser Howie, Singapore director of the
brokerage firm Newedge Financial, the reform to the one-child policy
would not be enough to solve China's generational issues."Anyone who is
going to be conceived today, it is going to be at least 20 years before
the government gets any tax revenue from them," said Howie, who also
co-authored Red Capitalism, a book on China's economy. "It is hardly a
short-term solution.Ă“China has still got a significant problem ahead of
it. Housing, education, and healthcare are all expensive, and that is
why people are not having children.
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