Nuclear dream is fading as wind and solar soar
With nuclear power falling ever further behind renewables as a global
energy source, and as the price of oil and gas falls, the future of the
industry in 2015 and beyond looks bleak.
Renewables now supply 22 percent of global electricity and nuclear
only 11 percent - a share that is gradually falling as old plants close
and fewer new ones are commissioned.
New large-scale installations of wind and solar power arrays continue
to surge across the world. Countries without full grids and power
outages, such as India, increasingly find that wind and solar are quick
and easy ways to bring electricity to people who have previously had no
supply.
Developed countries, meanwhile, faced with reducing carbon dioxide
emissions, find that the cost of both these renewable technologies is
coming down substantially. Subsidies for wind and solar are being
reduced and, in some cases, will disappear altogether in the next 10
years.
Speed of installation
The other advantage that renewables have is speed of installation.
Solar panels, once manufactured, can be installed on a rooftop and be in
operation in a single day. Wind turbines can be put up in a week.
Nuclear power, on the other hand, continues to get more expensive. In
China and Russia, costs are not transparent, and even in democracies
they are hard to pin down, but it is clear that they are rising
dramatically. Building of the proposed twin European Pressurised Water
reactors, called Hinkley Point C in Britain's West Country is due to
start in 2015, but the price has risen several times already. Estimated
construction costs have now jumped from £16 billion to £24 billion -
before the first concrete has even been poured.The other problem with
nuclear is the time frame. Originally, Hinkley Point C was due to be
completed by 2018.
This has now slipped to 2024, but even this is optimistic judging by
the performance of the two prototypes in Finland and France, both of
which are late and over budget.
The Finnish plant was due to open in 2009, but is still at least
three years from commissioning. The French plant is five years overdue.
In many countries, there are plans on paper for new nuclear stations,
and China, South Korea and India are among those that are continuing to
build them. Other countries, particularly where private capital is
needed to finance them, are putting their plans on hold.
Extend life
The US, which still has the largest number of reactors of any country
in the world, is opting instead to extend the life of its plants. Many
operators are considering applying for such extensions from 60 to 80
years. Provided they are up to modern safety standards, there seems no
barrier to this.
Many other countries, including the UK, are extending the lives of
their plants as long as possible, so the industry won't be disappearing
any time soon.
But one of the key problems for the nuclear sector is that reactors
have been designed to be at full power all of the time. With renewables
taking an increasing share of the market, a combination of nuclear, wind
and solar can produce more electricity than required - leaving a problem
of what to turn off.A way round this problem being developed in Britain
is large, strategically-based batteries. A five-megawatt battery, the
largest in Europe, has just been commissioned in Leighton Buzzard,
Bedfordshire, in the middle of England.
This is charged up when there is too much power in the grid, and
releases its energy when there is a surge in demand. If, during a
two-year trial, this works to smooth the peaks and troughs of demand,
and cuts the costs of switching on expensive gas turbines, then a
network of batteries will be installed across the country to harvest the
intermittent supplies of renewables.The only bright spot for nuclear at
the moment is the development of small nuclear reactors.
These are from 30 megawatts upwards and are designed to be built in a
factory and assembled on site - a bit like wind turbines are.These can
be installed singly or in a series, depending on the demand. Their two
greatest selling points are that they would be good in remote locations
far from other power sources, and are said to be much safer than their
larger cousins.
Price tag
However, a drawback is the price tag of around $3 billion dollars.
Both the US and UK are supporting private firms in research and
development, but commercial operation is a long way off.
Whether a small nuclear power station would be any more welcomed than
a wind or solar farm to provide power in a neighbourhood is a question
still to be tested.Nuclear enthusiasts - and there are still many in the
political and scientific world - continue to work on fast breeder
reactors, fusion and thorium reactors, heavily supported by governments
who still believe that one day the technology will be the source of
cheap and unlimited power.But, so far, that remains a distant dream.In
the meantime, investors are increasingly sceptical about putting their
money into nuclear - whereas renewables promise an increasingly rapid
return on investment, and may get a further boost if the governments of
the world finally take climate change seriously.
- Our World |