Asia's next geopolitical flash point
With Taiwan's pro-independence party tipped to win next year's
presidential election, some analysts fear that could renew tensions in
cross-strait relations and risk destabilizing Asia. "It is time to start
worrying about Taiwan ... Old questions about Taiwan's longer-term
future are re-emerging, and so are old fears that differences over
Taiwan could rupture U.S.-China relations and drive Asia to a major
crisis," said Hugh White, professor of strategic studies at the
Australian National University.
Despite splitting ways amid a civil war in 1949, China continues to
regard Taiwan as part of its territory and has never ruled out the use
of force as an option to reunify the island of 23 million. Under the
stewardship of Taiwan's President Ma Ying-jeou, cross-strait ties have
been on the mend and in recent years the two countries have developed
closer economic dealings.
However, analysts feel a renewed chill in relations cross-strait ties
is on the cards, after the ruling Kuomintang (KMT) party in Taiwan
suffered a defeat in December's local elections, which were widely seen
as a prelude to the 2016 presidential polls.
Ma's China-friendly stance was named the key culprit, as most
Taiwanese remain wary of cosying up with the mainland. As a result,
political watchers expect Tsai Ing-wen, chairwoman of the anti-China
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), to win the vote come January's
election.
Assertive approach
China remains highly suspicious of the DPP, especially after former
DPP leader Chen Shui-bian stepped on Beijing's toes by advocating the
island's independence during his 2000-2008 term. Another opposition
representative in office naturally alarms Beijing, according to White.
"While few expect that any future leader will return to policies as
provocative as Chen, the new leader will almost certainly be more
assertive than Ma. Hence, there is a risk that Beijing will respond by
taking a tougher line [and] look for new ways to pressure Taipei," he
wrote in a commentary published in The Straits Times in April.
Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group, agrees. "If
China decides that its strategy of economic engagement with Taiwan has
failed, Beijing might well backtrack on existing deals and significantly
harden its rhetoric," said Bremmer, who named Taiwan as a potential
market-moving risk in an article titled 'The top 10 geopolitical risks
of 2015'. And there are already signs of growing impatience from
Beijing, according to White and Bremmer, which appears set to be a risk
for the rest of the region, as well as Washington.
While the U.S. backs a 'one-China policy', it is Taiwan's main ally
and has committed to supporting the island in the event of a renewed
conflict. "U.S. leaders still talk boldly about their willingness to
stand by Taiwan without seriously considering what that means in
practice. Any U.S. effort to support Taiwan militarily against China
would be almost certain to escalate into a full-scale U.S.-China war and
quite possibly a nuclear exchange," White wrote.
To be sure, not all analysts feel that a return to power by Taiwan's
opposition will spark a sharp deterioration in ties with the mainland.
For one, DPP's presidential hopeful Tsai has reiterated a principle of
"maintaining the status quo" - no mutual recognition and no unilateral
change of status - if elected. Experts attribute the 58-year-old party
chairwoman's moderate stance to her time in office as the Mainland
Affairs Council Minister under the previous DPP administration. "Tsai
has been making the right noises. She has learnt the lessons from Chen
Shui-bian so she would try to preserve economic relations while ensuring
that Taiwan isn't falling under the orbit of China," Hoo Tiang Boon,
assistant professor with the China programme at the S. Rajaratnam School
of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, told
CNBC.
"People like to associate DPP with Chen's DPP, but they've changed,"
he added.
Risk on?
Beijing is also unlikely to alienate the DPP and backtrack on
existing economic arrangements as that will only undermine Beijing's
position in Taiwan, according to David Yang, principal analyst for
china, country risks and economic forecasting, at IHS.
"Over the past eight years, Beijing has gained more experience at
dealing with the DPP and has come to accept that the DPP will remain a
major political force that cannot be marginalized. With experience, they
have also come to realize that the DPP is not a monolithic block without
its own internal disagreements. Beijing will attempt to seek out
partners within the DPP that it can do business with," Yang wrote in an
email to CNBC.
On the question of how the U.S. could respond if China tries to
compel reunification, NTU's Hoo thinks military support from the West
would be unlikely.
"If China instigates military actions, the U.S. will be obliged to
respond under the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty, but there is
leeway for the U.S. because it doesn't state how Washington must
respond," said Hoo.
Even though the U.S. has a strong interest in preserving Taiwan's
democracy, Washington has an equally significant interest in preserving
the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait, he added. As such, Taiwan
is unlikely to precipitate a crisis that can rock the region's boat and
remains less worrisome than other hotspots such as the South China Sea
and rogue state North Korea.
"The risk of cross-strait conflicts will certainly increase in the
event of a DPP victory. However, I think both sides will exercise
restraint since a conflict will be economically damaging to both sides,"
IHS's Yang said.
"Instead of talking about the extremely remote possibility of a
U.S.-China nuclear exchange, I think we ought to be worried about the 20
or so bombs in the North Korea stockpile and the very mercurial
leadership controlling it."
(SCMP)
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