Water-logged!

Last week's tempestuous weather is being blamed on the El-Nino effect, but the danger is in how changing weather patterns will affect paddy cultivation:

by Dhaneshi Yatawara

People wading through flooded streets.

Aerial view of area submerged by flood waters

Weather patterns have turned topsy turvy and unpredictable in Sri Lanka in the past several years, but what is alarming is the effect it will have on paddy cultivation, which solely depends on rainfall and the North-East monsoon.

Emeritus Prof. W.L. Sumathipala, former head of the Sri Lankan Climate Change Secretariat, said the altered weather patterns is an El Nino effect.

"The reduction in the North-East monsoon rains will largely make those areas drier affecting large scale rice production which will obviously lead to serious environmental, social and economical problems," Prof. Sumathipala said.

Prof. Sumathipala is currently serving as an advisor to the Ministry of Environment. " El Nino can affect in different ways depending on its strength and the geography of the country, even though it normally relates to dry weather," he said.

Weather patterns have turned extremely chaotic to an extent where the classic monsoon is not experienced anymore and the heaviest rains seems to be falling during the inter-monsoonal period.Weather forecasts predict the change as being due to disturbances in the atmosphere close to Sri Lanka attributing it to El Nino effect. "Countries such as Australia and India will experience the typical El Nino the study I conducted a few years ago revealed that Sri Lanka being an island and located at the edge of the El Nino signal, the country will encounter a different weather pattern. That is what is happening now," Prof. Sumathipala said, explaining the phenomena faced by Sri Lanka due to the El Nino effect in 1974 -79 which created a wet climate while the cycle created dry weather during the 1983 - 84 period.

Abnormal patterns

This weather pattern was normally seen in November with disturbances and low pressure building up in the Bay of Bengal, he said.

"One has to clearly understand that El Nino is a short-term climate change," he added.

A reduction in the North-East monsoon rains, which normally falls in December till February is expected while an increase in the South-West monsoon rains, from May to September, will follow. Explaining that this since there is no warm weather with the continuous rain for the soggy soil to dry up, he said this could lead to quick landslides even with the slightest rain.

Director of the Department of Meteorology, S.R. Jayasekara, said heavy rain could be expected within the next three months. "Though we are at the tail end of the Southwestern monsoon, the intensity of rainfall began changing with the recent atmospheric changes caused by the cyclone in the Pacific Ocean, which later started moving towards China. Atmospheric changes turned the winds in a southwesterly direction and rain patterns may have changed due to this," he said. Jayasekara admitted the El Nino cycle, over the Pacific ocean may have an effect when it is strong and tends to spread towards Sri Lanka. "It is then a severe El Nino," he added.

El Niño is a climate cycle in the Pacific Ocean with a global impact on weather patterns.

According to the Department of Meteorology, rainy weather over the island has reduced. However, several shower spells will occur in the Western and Sabaragamuwa Provinces and in the Galle and Matara Districts. Thunder showers are expected in several places elsewhere in the afternoon. There may be temporary localized strong winds during thunder showers. A study done by Shanthi de Silva, Senior Professor of the Agriculture Engineering Faculty of the Open University of Sri Lanka revealed that a 10% increase in the Southwest monsoon rain can be expected according to data collected from 1999 till 2008.

The study had been done on the rainfall increase in the central hills.

According to her, around 2050, the Southwest monsoon would bring a further increase in rainfall to these areas. However, these areas would experience a further decline in rainfall from the Northwest monsoon.

Veer

"The central hills would then face extreme weather patterns that would veer from severe drought to floods during the two monsoons. The latter could contribute to landslides and destroy the hill country vegetable production," she explained. Prof. de Silva added that this flood water can be stored to be used in the dry periods. The chaotic weather conditions leading to natural disasters is the danger. Sri Lanka has come a long way in managing natural disasters, though still facing many challenges - now of a different kind, with the intensity of changing weather patterns. Prof. Rohan Samarajiva, an expert in disaster management said if rainfall continues, there must be disaster preparedness regarding floods in areas along the rivers and landslides in the hill country. Prof. Samarajiva was the founding chair of LIRNEasia, the South Asian think tank which looks at disaster management through a regional lens.

"Definitely we are in a much advanced stage than we were in 2004 with regard to disaster management and preparedness. But we need to find the right balance," said Prof. Samarajiva. He added that scientists should be involved in making judgments based on scientific evidence. He pointed out that scientists cannot take the final responsibility but the line ministries and authorities at national and local levels must get involved. Prof. Samarajiva said that this information should be disseminated to the people, evacuation plans and safe evacuation locations should be drawn out. "Sri Lanka has adopted well to cell broadcasting being done in implementing this technology which is a life saver during a disaster," said Prof. Samarajiva. Today, this option has been activated by many local telecommunication companies. Software is activated in Sri Lanka and is ready to be used at times of disaster," he added.

Informing people

Yet, the cell broadcasting system is more relevant to disasters where there will be less time for evacuation -such as cyclones and tsunamis.

"The flooding in rivers can be easily detected by fixing gauges in the river and monitoring and there will be adequate time to inform people and organise proper evacuation. But the most dangerous is a landslide.

He added that science related to landslide detections have significantly advanced within the past few years. The National Building Research Organization (NBRO) is involved with early detection of landslides and people are being currently educated on how to detect landslides and when to evacuate.

"Whether the people will positively respond at the right time with the technology given to them is the question and that needs to be a prime concern of the disaster management authorities," Prof. Samarajiva said.