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Migrant remittances - 2015:
World Bank forecasts slowdown
Weak economies in Europe, especially Russia, are slowing the growth
of remittance flows in 2015. Weaker currencies vis-à-vis the US dollar,
and lower oil prices are further restricting the ability of many
migrants to send money back to family and friends, according to the
World Bank's latest Migration and Development Brief.
Remittances to developing countries are expected to reach $435
billion in 2015, registering a modest growth rate of 2 percent compared
to last year. This represents a significant slowing in the growth of
remittances from the rise of 3.3 percent in 2014 and of 7.1 percent per
year from 2010-13. Global remittances, sent home by some 250 million
migrants, are projected to grow by 1.3 percent to $588 billion.
 Slowing remittances this year will affect most developing regions, in
particular Europe and Central Asia where flows are expected to decline
by 18.3 percent in 2015. A weakening of the Ruble against the US Dollar
is the main cause of the decline.
Looking to 2016, the report said remittances to developing countries
are expected to rise by about 4 percent, reaching an estimated $453
billion, buoyed by the continuing recovery in the United States and a
modest acceleration of economic activity in Europe. Global flows of
remittances are expected to recover in 2016 to reach $610 billion, and
then rise to $635 billion in 2017.
The global average cost of sending $200 remained at about 7.7 percent
in the second quarter of 2015. Remittance costs varied significantly by
region, and within region by corridor.
A major risk to the downward trajectory of remittance costs arises
from the closure of accounts of money transfer operators by
correspondent banks, due to concerns related to regulatory compliance.
In a major global policy shift, the recently-adopted Sustainable
Development Goals (SDGs) and the Addis Ababa Action Agenda on Financing
for Development endorsed improvements in migration policies, efforts to
end human trafficking and promote decent labour conditions for migrant
workers, reductions in the costs of remittances and recruitment, and the
collection of statistics disaggregated according to migratory status.
"One out of seven people in the world is a migrant, and a quarter of
them, international migrants. Migration is intimately linked to the
development process," said head of KNOMAD and an author of the MD Brief,
Dilip Ratha.
"The inclusion of migration and remittances in the SDGs is a welcome
step forward," he said.
- World Bank
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