World set to lose fifth of remaining natural habitat
The world could lose a fifth of its remaining natural habitat by 2050
through population growth if current trends in land use continue
unabated, a study warns.
The effects of population growth on land use will be particularly
dire in Africa and South America because of increases in agriculture,
mining and urban sprawl, according to an analysis published this month
(7 October) in PLOS One.
The world’s population is predicted to soar to 9.6 billion by
mid-century, increasing demand for resources, the study says. “This is
an issue that is global in nature and potentially rivals other global
conservation issues likeclimate change,” says Joe Kiesecker, an
ecologist at US charity, the Nature Conservancy and one of the study
authors.
Kiesecker and his colleagues identified around 76 per cent of land on
Earth, discounting Antarctica, as natural habitat. They found that
nearly 20 million square kilometres of these habitats — 20 per cent of
what remains across the planet — would be swallowed up under current
predictions of population and economic growth.
The team identified five factors as triggering land use change are
set to expand rapidly with population growth and development:
urbanisation, agriculture, mining, fossil fuel extraction and renewable
energy. Urban areas are expected to nearly double in size by 2030, while
land use for agriculture will grow by a third and land use for mining
will rise by 60 per cent by 2050, the study says.
Africa alone will lose an area of natural habitat larger than
Australia between now and 2050, the researchers warn.
Part of the problem is a lack of designated conservation zones, the
paper says. Only five per cent of natural environments threatened by
development have strict legal protection — a figure that must increase
to reduce the harm of economic development, the researchers say.
But Kiesecker stresses that the study’s aim is not to be
‘anti-development’.
Rather, the team wants to identify areas where conservation can work
in harmony with development goals. “But it will take the global
political will of lending agencies and governments to start to really
think about how they want to shape their landscapes,” he says.
However, Souleymane Konate, an ecologist at the University of Nangui
Abrogoua in Côte d’Ivoire, says tackling habitat loss from the top down
is the wrong approach. He says that conservation must take place at the
community level and will only succeed if people understand the value of
protecting biodiversity for their long-term wellbeing.
“When people are hungry, they do not care if an area is protected,”
he says. “But if you allow people to benefit from ecosystem services
then they will be the first to protect these areas.”
– SciDevnet
|