Sri Lanka's resilience agenda

A four-point program was presented during COP 21 on climate proofing the island nation.:

by Rukshana Rizwie

After 20 years of failed negotiations, a global climate deal brokered by the 21st Conference of the Parties in Paris (COP21) may mean a lot to a world that had waited for consensus on dealing with impacts of climate change.

As COP 21 got underway in Paris, Sri Lanka has submitted a structured Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission reduction plan, referred to as the Intended Nationally Determine Contribution (INDC) along with 183 other countries.

For a country that has heavily relied on the use of fossil fuels in the past and continues to do so, the INDC is a well-crafted ambitious plan. Sri Lanka has submitted its INDC under four areas:

Mitigation: The reduction of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions in the sectors of energy, transportation, industry, waste and forestry

Adaptation: Mainstreaming climate change adaptation into main economic drives with attention to economic and livelihood diversification. Adaptation measures will focus on sectors of food security, health, water, coastal and marine resources as well as infrastructure and human settlements.

Loss and damage: A local loss and damage mechanism to be developed to alleviate the livelihoods of those who have been affected.

Means of implementation: External support for finance, technology transfer and capacity building

In order to accomplish the above ambitious goals, Sri Lanka will need to turn over a new leaf. The mitigation strategies for the energy sector detailed in the INDC calls for a 3% conditional and 7% unconditional emission reduction against the Business as Usual (BAU) scenarios.

A reality check

The transport sector alone cites an overhaul where public transportation will be green- fuelled, a reduction of unproductive transport system, switching passengers from private to public modes of commuting and increasing the efficiency and quality of public transportation. The proposed 'Western Region Megapolis' which is to be unveiled in January next year is an example of how mitigation strategy will be put in place.

Among the other sectors cited in the INDC, Sri Lanka envisions to increase the forest cover which is at 29.6% at present to 32%. In the waste sector, although Sri Lanka generates 6500-7000Mt per annum, collection stands at only 39%. This collection rate is to be increased to a range between 50% and 65% by promoting waste separation, recycling, composting and waste-to-energy.

Meanwhile, the industrial sector will need to gear up for a swift modernization and follow recognized standards. Fuel switching and tax structures are already being looked at as pragmatic measures.

"The irony and injustice of climate change is that it is felt most by the poor countries with a low carbon footprint," said Prof. Mohan Munasinghe, the Vice Chair of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). World Bank statistics show that, in 2011, Sri Lanka's carbon dioxide emissions were 0.73 metric tons per capita, while India's emissions were 1.66 metric tons, Maldives' at 3.26 metric tons and Pakistan's 0.94 metric tons. China emits 6.71 metric tons per capita which by far is the highest in the region.

Prof. Munasinghe lamented that the impacts of climate change is "real and here to stay" and it was high time that governments understand the gravity of the situation to the point that it is imperative to "climate proof" national development goals.

"Ideally we should be doing more," he said. "We have to make these changes within a sustainable development framework."

Prof. Munasinghe recollected the 'sustainomics' theory which called for a more holistic and practical synthesis that could make development more sustainable.

The climate change expert also called on policy makers to focus on efforts to "bend the curve" by finding the most efficient and practicable to methods to achieve the sustainable development goals (SDGs) "without looking at climate change in isolation."

The current context

While detailing the impact of climate change, Prof. Munasinghe cited four main vulnerabilities that are more visible and in some places, devastating. He cautioned that the nexus between water and the agriculture sectors in the event temperatures go up, resulting in prolonged droughts that could precipitate a food crisis.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - a scientific body set up through the United Nations - predicted that crop yields in South Asian countries could plunge by 30 percent by the end of the century, due to factors such as water scarcity.

Predictions from the Department of Meteorology suggest that that fluctuating monsoon patterns were caused by climate change could place a heavy burden on already marginalized farmers.

"The trick would be to invest in drought resistant crops that can survive the changing patterns of climate. There are several varieties of rice that fit the bill," he said. "These are the types of adaptation improvements that we should be considering as a nation."

He also mentioned the wet zone and the hill country which has already felt the impacts of changing weather patterns in the form of consistent floods and regular landslides.

"In Sri Lanka, the sea level has gone up by 17cm. within the last 100 years," he said, on a note of caution, adding that rapid expansion and developmental activities -particularly in the coastal areas and within the burgeoning tourism industry - requiring urgent review.