Wet and wayward

The El Nino effect coupled with rising global temperature has meant chaotic weather patterns and the mid December monsoon rains the South and West of the country is experiencing now.

by Dhaneshi Yatawara

Technical measures to lower greenhouse gas emission and climate change mitigation are still ‘poorly understood’ by many nations, a recent study done on 52 countries has revealed.

The study focused on national targets, designed to cut emissions and mitigation strategies stated in the reports submitted by countries at the COP21 Summit. Conducted by a German think tank, New Climate Institute in cooperation with Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH, the study showed that half the countries questioned in the process were unaware of the paths for climate change adaptation. The report was issued on December 8.

Speaking to scidev.net, joint author of the report Niklas Höhne, a pioneer in establishing the New Climate Institute said it was less than half of the many countries which reported a strong understanding of technical mitigation options.

Unending rains

This is not alarming when one considers the current disasters Sri Lankan face including flash floods in townships due to unending rains. Weather patterns have turned extremely chaotic to the extent where the classical monsoon is not experienced anymore and heavy rains seems to be falling irrespective of seasons.

More countries ignorant about mitigation strategies is not a comforting factor but a disaster.

In Sri Lanka, some experts believe the change in the weather pattern is an impact of the global phenomenon – climate change coupled with the El Nino effect and not only factors like atmospheric depression in the Bay of Bengal.

As Emeritus Prof. W.L. Sumathipala, former head of the Sri Lankan Climate Change Secretariat, said ,“The altered weather patterns is an El Nino effect coupled with the global temperature rise due to climate change. As the global temperature is rising due to climate change impacts, just an increase of a few degrees Celsius is enough to reach the atmospheric temperature needed to create the El Nino effect, according to the expert, who is currently serving as an advisor to the Ministry of Environment.

“The study I conducted a few years ago revealed that Sri Lanka, being an island and at the edge of the El Nino signal, will encounter a different weather pattern. That is what is happening now,” said Prof. Sumathipala.

“One has to clearly understand that El Nino is a short-term climate change,” he added.

A reduction in the North-East monsoon rains, which normally falls in December till February is expected while an increase in the South-West monsoon rains, from May to September, will follow, according to his observations. He added that since there is no warm weather with the continuous rain for the soggy soil to dry up, there could be quick landslides even with the slightest rain.

In an article on climate change published a few years ago, Prof. Sumapthipala said the Colombo-Galle Road may need to be moved inland in time to come and that the Colombo and Galle ports may also be impacted, and eventually rendered unusable, if the current trend continues.

Climate change

-d.ibtimes.co.uk

Is Sri Lanka ready for climate change? “Ready or not it is already here,” said Nalaka Gunawardene, an expert in the environment communication field and science writer.

“The latest report from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) cautioned that South Asia will be the hardest hit,” he said. Analysing the latest researches conducted globally, the IPCC have said that Asia have to expect more extreme weather events such as floods and droughts, and warned about water scarcities and food shortages.

Yet, how much the authorities know about the catastrophes that can happen as a result of climate change, how can the country adopt these mitigation issues and save the citizens without the support of the world , when every country, including the world industrial giants, hold responsibility to stop the reasons for the current climate change.

Irrespective of mitigation techniques the country adopts, if the climate change continue globally, floods and disasters going to continue in Sri Lanka.

In a climate impacted world, Sri Lanka will not be the only ‘damsel in distress’ seeking a lifeline on that beach, said Gunawardene.

Why should the world come to Sri Lanka’s help, when the Maldives is literally drowning under the waves, and the Himalayas are literally melting away with catastrophic consequences for tens of millions, he asked explaining the world situation.

“As a lower middle income country that is neither a small island developing state nor a Least Developed Country, Sri Lanka will need to define its climate adaptation needs in different terms, rather than on strict physical or socio?economic vulnerabilities,” explained Gunawardene.

As Gunawardene pointed out living and coping with uncertain impacts of climate change is not a choice, but an imperative.