North in the crux of El Nino

In a fresh advisory to all Asia-Pacific countries, the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) and the Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia (RIMES) have warned that the current El Nino event – one of the strongest since 1997-1998 –will persist into the second quarter of 2016.

- blog.aba.org

El Niño is a complex phenomenon, likely to result in severe flooding in Southern India and Northern Sri Lanka. This follows a previous advisory that forecasted excessive El Niño induced rainfall in the region, which is expected to continue into early 1916.

While many southeast Asian countries, particularly India and Sri Lanka, expect to face severe flooding caused by heavy rainfalls, some Pacific islands – Papua New Guinea, Timor-Leste, and Vanuatu, among others – have been already been experiencing serious drought, causing water shortage and food insecurity.

The current 2015-2016 El Niño began with mild and localized conditions in the Pacific in late 2014, and has now intensified to cover a large expanse of Asia and the Pacific. The result: El Niño is likely to become even more severe in certain locations, such as central and southern India, central and northeast Thailand, the central and southern Philippines, the uplands of Cambodia, eastern Indonesia, Papua New Guinea and many other Pacific island countries.

The advisory note highlights that the reduced rainfall is already impacting agriculture in several countries, causing a loss of income and reducing the coping capacity of those affected countries, mostly in the Pacific. Many other countries have as been experiencing a serious drought over the past several months affecting approximately 2.4 million people.

The current El Niño is expected to intensify over December 2015 to early 2016, with continued drought conditions and water shortages affecting largely again, the Pacific Islands.

“One of the most significant impacts is on agriculture, which is a key component of the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) for many Pacific countries,” warned the advisory.

It also called for regional cooperation, given the transboundary nature of El Niño risks, early warning and monitoring, pre- or in-season mitigation, adaptation and response as well as long-term risk management to tackle some shared vulnerabilities and risks.

- blog.aba.org