Future of the global job market
by Saadia Zahidi and Till Leopoid
The World Economic Forum's Future of Jobs report seeks to understand
the current and future impact of key disruptions on employment levels,
skill sets and recruitment patterns in different industries and
countries. It does so by asking the talent and strategy executives of
today's largest employers to imagine how jobs in their industry will
change up to the year 2020.

Job seekers will have severe competition in the future. Pic
courtesy: unilever.com.lk |
Here are the findings:
Technological disruption is interacting with socio-economic,
geopolitical and demographic factors to create a perfect storm in labour
markets in the next five years. Developments in previously disjointed
fields such as artificial intelligence and machine learning, robotics,
nanotechnology, 3D printing and genetics and biotechnology are all
building on and amplifying one another. Concurrent to this technological
revolution are a set of broader socio-economic, geopolitical and
demographic developments, with nearly equivalent impact to the
technological factors.
Jobs gains in the next five years will not be enough to offset
expected losses, meaning we have a difficult transition ahead.
Current trends could lead to a net employment impact of more than 5.1
million jobs lost to disruptive labour market changes over the period
2015-2020, with a total loss of 7.1 million jobs - two-thirds of which
are concentrated in routine white collar office functions, such as
office and administrative roles - and a total gain of two million jobs,
in computer and mathematical, and architecture and engineering related
fields.
Manufacturing and production roles are also expected to see a further
bottoming out but are also anticipated to have relatively good potential
for upskilling, redeployment and productivity enhancement through
technology rather than pure substitution.
If you are choosing your college degree today, you will need to learn
and specialize throughout your lifetime. Two new and emerging job types
stand out due to the frequency and consistency with which they were
mentioned across practically all industries and geographies. The first
is the role of data analyst, which companies expect will help them make
sense and derive insights from the torrent of data generated by
technological disruptions.
The second is the role of specialized sales representative, as
practically every industry will need to become more skilled in
commercializing and explaining their new offerings to unfamiliar
businesses, government clients or consumers. A new type of senior
manager will also be in demand - one who can successfully steer
companies through the upcoming change and disruption.
Even as jobs shrink, companies will find it harder to recruit. Given
the overall disruption, it is not surprising that with current trends,
competition for talent in high-growth job families such as computing,
mathematics, architecture and engineering with specialist roles, will be
fierce.
Finding efficient ways of securing a solid talent pipeline will be a
priority for virtually every industry.
The roles will become more specialized, making them harder to
recruit, if current education and skilling trends stay as they are.
Regardless of the job you are in, expect to face pressure to
constantly modify your skills. Across all industries, the impact of
technological and other changes is shortening the shelf-life of
employees' existing skill sets. What's more, in this new environment,
business model change often translates to skill set disruption almost
simultaneously with only a minimal time lag. Even jobs that will shrink
in number are simultaneously undergoing change in the skill sets
required to do them.
On average, by 2020, more than a third of the desired core skill sets
of most occupations will comprise of skills that are not yet considered
crucial to the job today. Technical skills will need to be supplemented
with strong social and collaboration skills.
The threat of automation and a jobless future could become a
self-fulfilling prophecy, if both employers and employees don't act
today. Not anticipating and addressing disruptions to employment and
skills in a timely manner may come at an enormous economic and social
cost. Business leaders are aware of the looming challenges but are slow
to act.
Currently, only 53% of chief human resource officers surveyed are
reasonably or highly confident regarding the adequacy of their
organization's future workforce strategy to prepare for the shifts
ahead. Workers in lower skilled roles may find themselves caught up in a
vicious cycle where they could face redundancy without significant re-skilling
and upskilling.
Governments will need to show bolder leadership in putting through
curricula and labour market regulation changes. All of us will need to
take much great responsibility for our own talent development by
embracing lifelong learning.
Saadia Zahidi and Till Leopold work for the World Economic Forum.
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