El Nino's challenge:

Hoping of rains in April

by Dhaneshi Yatawara

Meteorologists said there is a possibility of a slight change in the weather in the near future, reducing the dry weather that is prevailing in the country.

The depleting levels of water at the Rantambe reservoir.

There is a possibility of inter-monsoonal rains in April, despite the continued dry weather, said S. Premalal, Director of Research, Training and Development in the Meteorology Department. "It is only a prediction and the weather is unpredictable," he said.

"Sri Lanka continues to experience a negative rainfall anomaly. The condition, which in general terms means an unusual drop in the normal rain which has affected Sri Lanka since January," he said.

The Meteorology Department report on the probabilities of receiving rain in March, shows no signs of normal rain. The dry season of the country seems to be getting drier.

Meteorologists said low rainfall was one of the main causes for the unbearable heat, worsening the conditions of this usually dry and hot season of the year. The sun shining close to the equator at this time of the year adds to it.

"We cannot specify this as a drought, because a drought is a more complicated condition. It is the dry season which has become drier," he added.

Meteorologists do not rule out the effects of El Nino which is one of the main factors which changes the circulation of air in the atmosphere all around the world.

"We do not know the direct effect of El Nino on the North-East monsoon, as no studies have been done so far. But the current El Nino effect is strong and may affect the local weather pattern and its effects cannot be ruled out," Premalal said.

Mitigation strategies

"There is an obvious change in the rain pattern which is a result of the global climate change. Sri Lanka, like other countries, is facing the consequences of a global phenomenon," he said.

Parched river bed of the Kotmale reservoir.

"Sri Lanka and many more countries are ignorant about mitigation strategies and that is not a comforting factor but a disaster," he said. According to agroclimatologist Prof. Buddhi Marambe these were only predictions and the actual situation may differ. "According to the current data, the situation will be drier in the coming months," he said.

"The Yala season, which is usually dry, will dry further,' he said. The current change in the weather pattern seems to be making the dry season drier and the wet seasons more damp, he added. He said the climate change would affect the agriculture sector.

If the Yala season gets drier, there will be less water for cultivation. "Farmers depending on irrigation water will have a problem as there will be less water in the reservoirs. During the wet season, if it rains at harvest time, it will have an adverse effect on agriculture," he said.

Siltation and poor maintenance have limited the water-storing capacity at most of these tanks.

The situation will be the same for vegetables and fruits, even though it needs less water than paddy cultivation.

"To reduce the effect caused by the worsening weather, seasonal weather forecasts need to reach more people to give confidence and prepare for weather changes," he said.

According to the Sri Lanka Hazard Profile, compiled two years ago, 11 agro-ecological areas of the Dry Zone have a greater degree of facing drought, while all the 20 agro-ecological areas of the Intermediate Zone face moderate or high degree drought risk.

"This is going to be a difficult year," said Emeritus Prof. W.L Sumathipala, former head of the Sri Lankan Climate Change Secretariat. Altered weather patterns could be coupled with global temperature rise due to climate change, he said.

Torrential rains

"Sri Lanka is unlikely to get her share of rain. The reason for the weather being the El Nino over the Pacific ocean," he said.

"Last year and this year are El Nino years. We cannot expect the heavy inter- monsoonal rains in March and April. With increasing global warming, the El Nino effect in the future can be stronger. Even to date the El Nino has become stronger in the recent past," Prof. Sumathipala said.

How can atmospheric changes over the Pacific ocean affect Sri Lanka in the Indian ocean, passing a land barrier (maritime continent) formed by the South East Asian countries? "These environments are atmospherically linked," he explained. South East Asian countries such as Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia, which usually experience torrential rains, dry up due to the El Nino effect. Countries on the Eastern Pacific side, such as Chile and Peru, which usually experience dry weather will be soaked in rain.

Islands such as Sri Lanka and the Maldives, which never experienced heat waves due to its geography, may face such consequences in the future. "There are heat waves in continents. Countries such Sri Lanka are islands and have environment conditions reducing heat waves. But with the current changes these countries may face changes too," he said.

"The extreme dry season has followed the continuous wet season as predicted. There needs to be preparedness in the society in all sectors to avoid long-term adverse effects on the people," he said.