Near the midpoint of his presidency, Barack Obamas diverse voter coalition reveals giant cracks and he faces major work repairing his standing among independents in states crucial to his re-election chances. Catholics. Older people. Women. Young adults. They shifted toward Republicans in this months elections and failed to support Obamas Democratic Party as they did in 2008.
Two years before voters render judgment on his tenure, Obamas most critical task may be winning back those who arent affiliated with a party but who hold enormous sway in close contests. National exit polls from the midterm elections show these voters broke heavily for Republicans after helping elect Obama and Democrats in the two previous elections.
The trouble with this constituency appears even deeper for Obama in places expected to be closely contested in the next White House race, according to an analysis by The Associated Press of exit polls in 26 states. It shows just how much ground Obama must make up with independents between now and November 2012. "Over the last two years, weve made progress. But clearly too many Americans havent felt that progress yet," the president said after the election. "As president, I take responsibility for that."
Its impossible to predict a presidential election based on midterm results. Thats even truer considering that 131.2 million people voted in 2008, when Obama was elected, compared with 87 million this month, based on an AP tally of official and unofficial results. The slow-moving economic recovery could speed up, lifting Obama and the Democrats. Novembers exit-poll responses provide enough hints that Obama could be in serious trouble if he doesnt shore up his support in crucial areas.