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| Sunday, 27 October 2002 |
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Features |  |
| News Business Features Editorial
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Ceasefire agreement and beyond: : The economic perspective by W. D. Lakshman We are all happy that for more than six months we have had no significant violations of the ceasefire agreement. On a number of occasions in the past there were ceasefires and efforts to bring about peace. These have not succeeded and the civil war continued. The peace effort this time has certain distinctive features. In the past, the prime significance was placed on working out an acceptable political settlement and negotiations for getting that accepted. This time greater emphasis is placed on more mundane things, which are of great importance to people: rehabilitation and relief activities, facilities for people of different communities to meet, confidence building etc. There is great optimism that this new method will have a greater chance of success. Such success will anyway depend on many things. Of these, for present purposes, let me highlight (I) the ability to do things that are immediately necessary in the very short run (e.g. relief work) while the peace process goes on and (II) the ability to at least commence in a meaningful manner developmental activities. That relief and rehabilitation work should not be separated from developmental work is a view running through this presentation. The most obvious and the most saddening condition seen in the war-affected areas is the poverty and destitution in which ordinary people live their lives in most of the war-affected areas. The most obvious manifestation of this is the extremely poor quality of houses they live in. How children look and what they wear in comparison to children in areas not affected by war. Statistical data on social indicators also appear to be coming out little by little, although I have not yet seen any relevant report (Daily News report on 12-9-2002 quoting from World Food Programme about malnutrition among children and anaemia among women). The houses destroyed fully or partly, temporary huts in which many people have lived for long and continue to live, plantations destroyed, abandoned arable land, destroyed infrastructure and so on eloquently speak of the extent of destruction brought about by almost 20 years of war. One gets the feeling that this war had pushed the level of human development in the war-affected regions by 50 years (not just 20 years). Talking of living conditions, one has to make distinctions among: (i) Those still living in welfare centres or refugee camps for IDPs (ii) Those who have returned from IDP status to either their previous home villages or new settlement villages. The type of assistance they get from the government (help to construct house? Rations?) is of importance here. (iii) Those who have continued to live where they are living now in spite of war in surrounding areas. Living conditions of any one of these groups, on average, will be different from those of another. In addition, there are also regional differences in living conditions between Northern and Eastern Province regions. In each province, there are also broad District-wise differences as well as urban-rural differences. As it is the case in the rest of the country, conditions of life in rural areas are substantially worse than in urban areas. About living conditions, there are also certain important conditions, which are no seen by the naked eye and require a special effort, which is generally very difficult, to understand. These are conditions of war-trauma and other psychosocial conditions affecting people in war-affected areas. It is widely believed that many people from the Northern and Eastern Provinces (NEP) are suffering from such conditions. Normal survey methods cannot help us distinguish between people who are affected and not affected. Therefore firm estimates about the extent of prevalence of psychosocial conditions in the NEP are not available. * The NEP is heavily dependent on agriculture and fisheries to provide livelihood for their people, as there is no industrial activity worth talking about (except the few well known large industries like the Tokyo Cement and Prima in Trincomalee, the cement factory in KKS). Agriculture and fisheries have been very adversely affected by war and today substantial extends of agricultural land remain abandoned because this land has not yet been de-mined or because of water shortages resulting from the destruction to irrigation facilities. * Damaged physical infrastructure facilities, which hamper not only economic activities but also conditions of life in general. * Damaged social infrastructure facilities (schools and hospitals) * Destruction of valuable income and job-creating facilities (e.g. hotels and restaurants in areas like Pasikuda and Nilaveli, private businesses in Jaffna). Many other factors can be mentioned but the important point is that the NEP economy today generates very few jobs. The peace process however, will gradually increase the demand for peace time jobs. The demand for jobs will increase substantially with demobilisation whenever it happens. The other side of the coin is that a more rapid process of creation of peace time jobs would be a very necessary condition for the success of the very processes of peace and demobilisation. What then are the needs? There are short-term, medium-term and long-term needs, however one defines these three time periods. * Short-term: Resettlement, rehabilitation and reconstruction (3-Rs). Resettlement from welfare centres can be either in the old settlements of the people concerned or in new settlements. Whatever the form of resettlement, things have to be rehabilitated and reconstructed. * De-mining which is crucially important in the North, though not so important in the East. * Houses for people * Social sector buildings - schools and hospitals * Governmental offices as well as their institutional capacities and service delivery systems. * Physical infrastructure facilities like village access roads, village tanks, power etc. The World Bank funded NEIAP project has been in operation for some time in the rehabilitation of minor/village tanks * Rehabilitation of employment avenues * Long-term activities going beyond the 3R programme. These could include more time consuming activities in the widely discussed 5R programme (i.e. reconciliation and reawakening activities) and various long-term developmental activities. * Large infrastructure development programme (roads, railways, tanks, power, telecommunications, housing etc). In some of these activities the private sector also may have to join hands with the government. * Private sector (domestic and foreign) investments and other activities to promote directly productive activities and employment creation. * Extensive human resource training programmes * Policy-based credit programmes with micro credit schemes combined with effective and affordable credit facilities for large enterprises as well as the SMI sector. Many questions * Organisations in relief as well as development work in conflict situations, particularly those in latter type of work, are likely to face problems of a different character from those such organisations face in carrying out these activities under conditions of peace. Moreover, relief and development work in conflict situations can give rise to new problems. It is therefore important to engage in these activities in such ways as would not give rise to new problems and new conflicts. Donor assistance in conflict situations, in particular, may raise special problems. There can be, along with many positive impacts, certain negative (may be unintended) impacts from donor assistance. These are, for example: (a) Actions of donor agencies that may upset the ethnic balance in multi-ethnic regions; (b) Problems arising as a result of lack of transparent aid distribution mechanisms; (c) Negative effects of corrupt practices, which foreign assisted projects might unintentionally promote; (d) Regional imbalances foreign assistance programmes might exacerbate; (e) The likely "internationalisation of governmental tasks". Donor assistance programmes have to be, therefore, sufficiently cautious to avoid doing more harm than good. There is the need for thorough analysis of the conflict context so that aid strategies capable of offering and effective framework for peace building could be formulated and implemented. Some of the problem areas noted above are of particular relevance to Sri Lanka's NEP with its population of cultural diversity. It is worth highlighting the problems that may arise due to "perceived" special favours to NEP, to the "perceived" neglect of other underprivileged regions. One often hears these days the plea that the south should not be forgotten in the rush to assist the north and east. * Many agencies, public, private and non-governmental, including both domestic and foreign, are seen either already rushing to or waiting to rush to, the NEP for rehabilitation work and later for investments for profit/development. Already, despite the fact that the number of organisations actively involved is still small, there is the question of co-ordination to achieve optimal results from limited resources. The need for an effective co-ordination mechanism is bound to become more urgent with the rise in the number of organisations involved in relief and development. Co-ordination among these various governmental, private, NGO and foreign donor agencies is required based on an agreed upon master plan. Avoidance of unnecessary duplication as well as benefiting from possible complementarities is facilitated by proper co-ordination. * Economic development no doubt is an important issue. It would be the necessary foundation for many other desirable things, But in planning rehabilitation - development activities in a conflict situation, we must remember clearly that people need other things as well - e.g. human/fundamental rights/ freedoms. Most of us are familiar with Sen's interpretation of development as freedom. Furthermore, the need for resources to promote their cultural revival should not be forgotten. Strengthening of civil society organisations is required to enhance people's participation and local democratic practices. A strong foundation of equitable and balanced economic development would undoubtedly promote all these, highly desirable from a human and social point of view. |
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